Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Inequality

2008年金融危机过后，西方经济体的失业率急剧上升。金融危机过去4年多了，美国和英国的失业率仍高于8%，欧元区的失业率高于11%。这段失业猖獗的时期表明，我们没有有效应对失业的政策，尤其是在一个日益不平等的世界里。通过发展一个由经验证据证实的政策友好型宏观经济理论，该项目将为设计能够在经济衰退中减少失业同时缓解不平等的宏观经济政策提供一些指导。拟议项目的目标是弥合抽象宏观经济模型与实际宏观经济政策之间的现有差距。这一差距部分解释了为什么政策制定者无法降低失业率。事实上，现有的模型对经济衰退时期的宏观经济政策指导甚微。此外，巨大的收入和财富不平等似乎促成并加剧了当前的衰退。但这些模型几乎完全是从不平等中抽象出来的。为了实现我们的目标，我们将开发一种新的宏观经济模型，透明地捕捉实际商业周期的特征，特别是通过纳入财富和收入不平等。我们将使用该模型来解决理论上各种各样的政策问题：—在经济衰退期间，失业保险是否应该更慷慨以刺激总需求？还是应该减少对失业工人的慷慨激励，让他们更积极地寻找工作？-在经济衰退中，工资税是否应该从雇员身上转移到雇主身上，通过将收入从企业所有者转移到工人身上来刺激总需求？还是应该从雇主身上转移到雇员身上，以降低劳动力成本，刺激就业？-在经济衰退时，所得税是否应该更累进，通过将收入从富人转移到穷人来刺激总需求？还是说，鼓励工作和创业更应该倒退？——在经济衰退时期，政府是否应该雇佣公共部门的员工来降低失业率？还是应该解雇公务员以减少公共债务并刺激私营企业？我们将利用实际数据对模型进行数值模拟，以补充理论分析。该项目具有很大的潜在影响。我们的项目将开发一个简单的宏观经济模型，该模型结合了对失业和总需求的谨慎处理（受凯恩斯工作的启发），以及适用于现代宏观经济模型的总供给的复杂处理。此外，该模型将纳入财富和收入不平等。因此，该模型将对学术界的许多经济学家有用。但是我们希望这个项目的影响不会局限于学术界。通过提供可行的政策处方，在存在不平等的情况下应对失业和经济衰退，我们预计该项目将对政策制定机构产生重大影响。如果项目成功并改善宏观经济政策的做法，它也将对社会产生重大的积极影响。最后，这个项目是与Emmanuel Saez的科学合作。伊曼纽尔是研究不平等问题的顶尖经济学家。他在加州大学伯克利分校工作。我们将准备三个产出来传播研究成果：(1)在学术期刊上发表的论文；(2)决策者可用的计算机程序工具箱，对各种政策选择进行基准测试；(3)一本汇集了经济衰退中宏观经济政策实施的研究成果和处方的书。虽然这些论文主要针对学术界，但我们希望他们的理论论点能够传达给政策制定者。计算机程序工具箱和这本书是专门为政策制定者设计的。

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, unemployment increased dramatically in Western economies. More than four years after the financial crisis, the unemployment rate remains above 8% in the US and the UK, and above 11% in the eurozone. This period of rampant unemployment demonstrates that we do not have the policies to fight unemployment effectively, especially in a world with growing inequality. By developing a policy-friendly macroeconomic theory substantiated by empirical evidence, the project will provide some guidance for the design of macroeconomic policies able to reduce unemployment in recessions while alleviating inequality. The goal of the proposed project is to bridge the existing gap between abstract macroeconomic models and actual macroeconomic policy. This gap explains in part why policymakers have been unable to reduce unemployment. In fact, existing models provide little guidance for the conduct of macroeconomic policy in recessions. Furthermore, large income and wealth inequality seem to have precipitated and aggravated the current recession. But these models abstract almost completely from inequality.To achieve our goal, we will develop a new kind of macroeconomic model that captures transparently the features of actual business cycles, in particular by incorporating wealth and income inequality. We will use the model to address theoretically various policy questions: - Should unemployment insurance be more generous in recessions to stimulate aggregate demand? Or should it be less generous to incentivise unemployed workers to search more intensively for jobs?- Should payroll tax shift from employees to employers in recessions to stimulate aggregate demand by transferring income from firm owners to workers? Or should it shift from employers to employees to reduce the cost of labour and stimulate hiring?- Should income tax be more progressive in recessions to stimulate aggregate demand by transferring income from the rich to the poor? Or should it be more regressive to encourage work and entrepreneurship?- Should the government hire workers in the public sector in recessions to reduce unemployment? Or should it fire public workers to reduce public debt and stimulate private enterprise? We will complement the theoretical analysis with numerical simulations of the model using real-world data. The project has a strong potential for impact. Our project will develop a simple macroeconomic model that marries a careful treatment of unemployment and aggregate demand, inspired by the work of Keynes, with the sophisticated treatment of aggregate supply proper to modern macroeconomic models. Additionally, the model will incorporate wealth and income inequality. The model will therefore be useful to many economists in academia. But we hope that the impact of the project will not be limited to academia. By delivering actionable policy prescriptions to fight unemployment and recessions in presence of inequality, we expect the project to have a substantial impact in policymaking institutions. If the project were successful and improved the practice of macroeconomic policy, it would also have a major positive impact on society. Finally, this project is a scientific collaboration with Emmanuel Saez. Emmanuel is the leading economist on the subject of inequality. He is based at the University of California, Berkeley. We will prepare three outputs to disseminate research findings: (1) papers published in academic journals; (2) a toolbox of computer programs available usable by policymakers to benchmark various policy options; and (3) a book compiling research findings and prescriptions for the conduct of macroeconomic policy in recessions. Although the papers are primarily aimed at academics, we expect their theoretical arguments to reach policymakers. The toolbox of computer programs and the book are specifically designed for policymakers.