UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF AND RESPONSES TO HEAT WAVES: A BEHAVIOURAL DECISION RESEARCH APPROACH

我们建议在英国范围内对公众对最近热浪的反应进行一项长期研究。我们将测试不同的方式，要求人们记住最近的热浪对他们与热有关的风险认知，气候变化的关注，以及随着时间的推移实施热保护的意愿的影响。如果有影响，那么公众对热浪的准备可以通过唤起热浪的记忆来提高，从而帮助人们避免严重的与热有关的问题。我们的研究结果对国家卫生服务（NHS）和英国公共卫生（PHE）等组织很重要，它们设计通信以改善公共热保护。这项工作是紧迫的，与政策相关，因为(1)热浪在英国很少见，但预计在气候变化下会变得更加常见；(2)热浪造成过多的死亡、疾病和不适；(3)对人们实施热保护的意愿知之甚少，但一些研究表明，即使处于危险中的成年人也不认为自己容易受到热的伤害；(4)目前尚不清楚如何最好地激励人们保护自己，诸如NHS/PHE热浪计划等政策尚未正式评估；(5)如果重新唤起人们对高温的记忆，那么促进公众热防护的努力可能会更有效。我们的跨学科团队结合了行为决策研究和环境科学方面所需的专业知识，这是本提案的基础。行为决策研究表明，人们认为自己面临的风险比实际情况要低，除非他们记得让自己面临风险的事件。环境科学表明，极端天气是令人难忘的，但英国居民可能会感到“怀旧”，因为经历过的高温是遥远的过去。因此，唤起热的记忆的交流最初可能有效，但随着时间的推移变得无效，除非明确地唤起令人不快的热的记忆。我们是第一个测试明确指示记住不愉快的高温经历是否有助于避免减少人们对热相关风险的认知，气候变化问题，以及随着时间的推移实施热保护的意愿。我们的调查将在全国范围内招募1500名参与者，对老年人和更容易受热的人进行过度抽样。他们将立即（在获奖后1个月内），6个月后（春季）和9个月后（夏季）进行调查。每个参与者每次都会得到相同的调查和说明，但将分为四组。“自由回忆”控制组将被要求在没有任何进一步指示的情况下回想2013年夏天的气温，因此他们可以根据自然发生的记忆自由回答调查问题。“最高温度”的回忆组将被要求回忆2013年夏天经历的“最高温度”，而“最不愉快的温度”的回忆组将被要求回忆2013年夏天经历的“最不愉快”的温度，然后再回答调查的其余部分。随着时间的推移，这三组人预计会更多地考虑宜人的炎热天气或不愉快的寒冷天气，因为它们对炎热的积极影响会增加——可能会降低他们的风险感知和实施风险降低的意愿。只有第四组被问及他们在2013年夏天经历过的“最不愉快的最高温度”时，预计他们不会降低风险认知、气候变化担忧和实施风险降低的意愿。如果是这样，那么这些说明应包括在热保护通信中。后续工作将测试公众对其他极端天气事件（如洪水、干旱和降雪）反应的相关见解。我们的研究结果将影响如何设计有效的风险沟通的理论和实践，并有助于促进公众在面对极端天气时的准备和恢复能力。

We propose a UK-wide study of public responses to the recent heat wave over time. We will test the effect of different ways of asking people to remember the recent heat wave on their heat-related risk perceptions, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement heat-protection over time. If there is an effect, then public preparedness for heat waves could be improved by invoking memories of heat waves, thus helping people to avoid serious heat-related problems. Our findings are important for organisations such as the National Health Service (NHS) and Public Health England (PHE), which design communications to improve public heat protection.This work is urgent and policy relevant, because (1) heat waves are rare in the UK but are projected to become more common under a changing climate; (2) heat waves cause excess deaths, illness and discomfort; (3) little is known about people's willingness to implement heat-protection, but a few studies have shown that even at-risk adults do not see themselves as vulnerable to heat; (4) it remains unclear how to best motivate people to protect themselves, with policies such as the NHS/PHE heat wave plan not yet formally evaluated; and (5) attempts to promote public heat protection could be more effective if memories of experienced heat are rekindled.Our interdisciplinary team combines the needed expertise in behavioural decision research and environmental science, in which this proposal is grounded. Behavioural decision research shows that people think of their risks as lower than they actually are, unless they remember events that posed them at risk. Environmental science shows that extreme weather is memorable, but UK residents may feel 'nostalgic' as experienced heat is further in the past. Thus, communications that invoke memories of heat may work initially but become ineffective over time, unless memories of unpleasant heat are explicitly invoked. We are the first to test whether explicit instructions to remember experiences with unpleasant heat can help to avoid reductions in people's perceptions of heat-related risks, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement heat protection over time.Our survey will recruit 1500 participants nationally, oversampling individuals who are older and more vulnerable to heat. They will be surveyed immediately (within 1 month of award), 6 months later (spring), and 9 months later (summer). Each participant will get the same survey and instructions each time, but there will be four groups. The 'free-recall' control group will be asked to think about 2013 summer temperatures they experienced without receiving any further instructions, and can thus freely answer the survey questions based on memories that are naturally occurring. The 'highest maximum temperature' recall group will be asked to remember 'the highest maximum' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, and the 'most unpleasant temperature' recall group will be asked to remember 'the most unpleasant' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, before answering the rest of the survey. These three groups are expected to think more of pleasant hot or unpleasant cold summer weather as positive affect about heat increases over time - possibly reducing their risk perceptions and willingness to implement risk reduction. Only the fourth group, which is asked for 'the most unpleasant highest maximum' temperature they experienced in the summer of 2013, is expected to avoid reductions in risk perceptions, climate-change concerns, and willingness to implement risk reduction. If so, then those instructions should be included in heat-protection communications.Follow-up work will test insights relevant to public responses to other extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts and snow. Our findings will impact theory and practice about how to design effective risk communication, and help to promote public preparedness and resilience in the face of extreme weather.