Food Fraud: A Supply Network Integrated Systems Analysis

本研究的目的是开发一种预测计算方法来模拟食品供应网络，以便确定食品掺假可能发生的点。通过识别供应链中这些易受掺假影响的点，将允许监管机构和零售商采取适当的行动来避免食品掺假。该项目汇集了来自分析科学、预测建模、法律、犯罪学和商业研究的跨学科研究团队。这个建议是高度创新的，因为它利用了不同学科之间的动态，使得供应网络集成系统分析的发展成为解决食品掺假问题的一个令人兴奋和突破性的发展。食品欺诈不仅仅是一个当代现象，故意掺假食品也有很长的历史，最近在欧洲发生的事件似乎是一个需要解决的持续问题。虽然犯罪组织与食品掺假之间的联系并不是食品掺假研究的具体重点，但最近发生的牛肉供应链中掺入马肉的事件引发了一系列与不受监管的食品供应链的潜在后果相关的食品保护问题。该项目的结果将是一个风险计算模型，用于预测食品供应链中掺假的欺诈机会和脆弱点。这样就可以通过刑事和其他行动，例如加强对已查明的易受伤害的关键点的监测，来预测潜在的食品掺假事件。这样的分析有助于了解监管框架和现行市场状况如何影响并造成食品供应链中的脆弱性。将根据犯罪机会和市场结构来审查这些脆弱性。将探讨这些不同元素之间的相互作用，以确定它们如何提供犯罪机会，以及供应链中的合法行为者如何利用这些机会。综合系统分析模型将是动态和预测可能的位置和机会的掺假在供应链的长度。这种动态模型在许多其他领域都有应用，对食品监管机构、零售商和最终消费者都有好处。对食品供应链中的风险点和脆弱性的预测将为广泛的利益相关者和相关方提供重大利益。食品加工商和零售商将能够通过采取行动确保他们的食品不掺假来维护他们的声誉。这将有助于提高消费者对英国食品供应链的信心和信任。最后，监管机构将能够制定有针对性的检测和预防战略，以解决不道德行为并减少犯罪机会。

The aim of this research is to develop a predictive computational approach to modeling the food supply network so that the points where food adulteration can occur are identified. By identifying these points of vulnerability to adulteration within the supply chain will allow regulators and retailers to take appropriate action to avoid food adulteration.This project brings together an interdisciplinary team of researchers from analytical sciences, predictive modeling, law, criminology and business studies. This proposal is highly innovative in that it exploits the dynamics between the diverse disciplines that makes the development of a Supply network integrated systems analysis an exciting and groundbreaking development in tackling issues of food adulteration. Food fraud is not just a contemporary phenomenon and the deliberate adulteration of food products has a long history and with recent events throughout Europe appears to be an ongoing problem that needs to be addressed. Whilst the link between criminal organisations and food adulteration has not been a specific focus of food adulteration research, the recent incidences of adulteration of the bovine meat supply chain with horsemeat have raised a number of food protection issues related to the potential consequences of unregulated food supply chains. The outcome of this project will be a computational model of risk for predicting fraudulent opportunities for adulteration and points of vulnerability within food supply chains. This will allow for the prediction of potential food adulteration incidences through criminal and other action such as increased monitoring of the identified critical points of vulnerability. Such an analysis allows for an understanding of how the regulatory framework and the prevailing market conditions impact on and create vulnerabilities in food supply chains. These vulnerabilities will be examined in relation to criminal opportunities and market structures. Interactions between these different elements will be explored to identify how they provide criminal opportunities and how legitimate actors within the supply chain are placed to take advantage of such opportunities. The integrative systems analysis model will be dynamic and predictive of possible locations and opportunities for adulteration within the length of the supply chain. Such a dynamic model has application within a number of other arenas and would be of benefit to food regulators, retailers, and ultimately consumers. The prediction of risk points and vulnerabilities within the food supply chain will provide significant benefit to a wide range of stakeholders and interested parties. Food processors and retailers will be able to maintain their reputations by taking action to ensure that they have protected their food products from adulteration. This will contribute to consumer confidence and trust in UK food supply chains. Finally, regulators will be able to develop well targeted detection and prevention strategies to address unethical behaviour and reduce criminal opportunities.