Urgent invite - Public perceptions of climate change in the immediate aftermath of major national flooding

公众对气候变化的理解是许多社会科学家感兴趣的话题。在某种程度上，这是因为人们对气候变化的看法往往会影响他们对国家政策（例如减少排放）和个人行动（例如减少自己对环境的影响）的态度。这项拟议的研究认为极端天气的作用对人们对气候变化的理解有重要影响。尽管许多研究已经关注了更广泛的气象条件（例如日常温度）如何影响人们对气候变化的看法，但很少有研究检查异常或极端天气事件在影响公众舆论方面的作用。我们对这个话题很感兴趣，因为有理由相信极端天气事件可能对人们的态度有特别明显的影响。我们也认为这一重点是相关的，因为气候变化本身就被预测会导致世界各地更频繁、更严重的极端天气，包括英国各地洪水的发生率增加。我们的研究旨在调查2014年初英国部分地区发生重大全国性洪水后不久人们对气候变化的看法。我们提议在全英国开展一项大型调查，通过这项调查，我们可以了解人们对洪水和气候变化的看法，以及它们之间的联系。拟议的调查将在几个方面不同于以往的研究。首先，我们不仅要收集全国范围内的数据，还要特别关注受2014年洪水直接影响的地区。这将使我们能够将受影响地区与国家数据进行比较。例如，如果受洪水影响地区的人们比国家样本更担心气候变化，这可能表明个人经历对气候变化的信念产生了影响。其次，拟议的调查将更密切地关注一些心理因素，这些因素已被确定为形成人们观点的重要因素。这些因素包括情绪反应（例如，对洪水的愤怒）、认知变量（例如，人们认为洪水的潜在原因是什么）、人们对气候变化这个问题的“距离”有多远、人们对气候变化和洪水的风险感知程度有多高，以及人们的潜在价值观。第三，该调查的设计是在洪水事件发生时进行的（这就是为什么我们正在寻求“紧急”资金）。探索这些问题对于我们理解关于气候变化的信念是如何形成的理论是很重要的。它对于制定战略使公众参与解决气候变化的原因和应对气候影响也很重要。我们希望以考虑极端天气和气候变化之间复杂联系的方式，为发展更有效的气候科学传播作出贡献。预计调查结果将引起来自公共、私营和第三部门的各种利益相关者的兴趣；这些界别的代表会透过谘询小组（包括就调查的设计提供意见）及其他活动参与，使研究结果广为流传。我们将在2014年秋末发布一份调查结果报告。此外，我们将为那些对气候变化有兴趣的人举办一个专门的研讨会，并撰写和传播一系列学术论文。

Public understanding of climate change is a topic of interest to many social scientists. In part, this is because people's views on climate change tend to influence their attitudes to national policy (e.g. reducing emissions) and personal actions (e.g. reducing one's own impact on the environment). The proposed research considers the role of extreme weather as a critical influence on people's understanding of climate change. Although a number of studies have looked at how wider meteorological conditions (e.g. day-to-day temperature) can affect people's views on climate change, there is little research that examines the role of extraordinary or extreme weather events in affecting public opinion. We are interested in this topic because there is reason to believe that extreme weather events may have a particularly pronounced effect on people's attitudes. We also see this focus as relevant because climate change is itself predicted to lead to more frequent and severe extreme weather around the world, including increased incidence of floods across the UK. Our research is designed to examine people's perceptions of climate change shortly after the occurrence of major national flooding in parts of the UK in early 2014. We propose carrying out a large survey across Great Britain through which we can measure people's views about the flooding and about climate change, and how these are connected. The proposed survey will be different to previous studies in several ways. First, we aim to collect data not only nationally, but also to pay particularly close attention to areas that were directly affected by the 2014 flooding. This will enable us to compare affected regions with national data. For example, if people in flood-affected areas are more worried about climate change than the national sample, this might suggest that personal experience has had an effect on beliefs about climate change. Second, the proposed survey will look more closely at a number of psychological factors which have been identified as important in shaping people's views. These include the role of emotional responses (e.g. anger about the flooding), cognitive variables (e.g. what people believe are the underlying causes of the flooding), how 'distant' people feel from climate change as an issue, how much risk people perceive from climate change and flooding, and people's underlying values. Third, the survey is designed to be run close in time to the flooding events (which is why we are seeking 'urgent' funding).Exploring these questions is important for theory in terms of our understanding of how beliefs about climate change are shaped. It is also important for developing strategies for engaging members of the public in addressing the causes of climate change, and for responding to climate impacts. We hope to contribute to the development of more effective climate science communication in ways that take account of the complex linkages between extreme weather and climate change. The findings are expected to be of interest to a diverse range of stakeholders from the public, private and third sectors; representatives from these sectors will be engaged through an advisory panel (including providing advice on the design of the survey) and other activities to make the research findings widely available. We will launch a report of our findings in late Autumn 2014. In addition we will hold a specific workshop for those interested in communicating climate change, and write and disseminate a series of academic papers.