Female labour supply and the escape from poverty: new evidence from household data

本研究将利用来自4个非洲和亚洲国家（孟加拉国、埃塞俄比亚、巴基斯坦和卢旺达）的家庭调查数据，在可比的基础上深入研究低收入国家过去二、三十年来女性劳动力供应的演变性质，并分析这与减贫之间的关系。我们主要从提案征集中解决研究问题1，即使家庭摆脱或摆脱贫困的因素，尽管制度因素（问题2）在本分析中也发挥了重要作用。国家的选择和方法的相似性使非洲和南亚内部和之间具有可比性。妇女的作用，包括在工作方面的作用，在各国之间往往大不相同；这些国家在减贫方面取得了不同程度的成功。该分析利用了重复的横截面住户调查、人口健康调查（DHS）数据和住户面板数据集。我们研究问题的基础是一个被广泛接受的事实，即安全的生产性劳动力市场活动是使家庭摆脱贫困和摆脱贫困的关键。我们认为，贫困家庭妇女的劳动力市场活动可能在这方面发挥关键作用，无论是作为次要家庭工人还是作为自己的户主。从历史上看，妇女从事工作或从事更有生产力的工作的能力较弱，这对家庭来说是一种损失。这种情况正在世界各地发生变化；女孩现在接受了更高水平的教育，限制女性劳动力市场活动的规范现在不那么严格了。一个始于现在发达国家的过程也正在较贫穷的国家发生。这既影响到妇女能够工作的程度，也影响到她们能够从事的活动类型。尽管如此，在贫穷国家，特别是在较贫穷的家庭中，许多女性工作仍然发挥着缓冲作用，寻求在面临冲击时支持家庭。随着时间的推移，这种情况可能会改变。这里的重点是劳动力供给的不同方面，以及它们在20-30年期间的演变；我们将考虑参与、工时、工作性质（工资或自营职业、家庭内外、行业、职业等），以及采取提高生产力的措施。我们将根据许多标准（地理、社会经济地位、家庭规模和组成等）按家庭类型进行分类。我们将使用调查数据，采用队列方法，在控制许多其他相关因素的情况下，详细检查所有国家都发生的女性劳动力供应增加或变化与减贫之间的联系。我们特别感兴趣的是研究女性工作从缓冲角色向长期创收角色的转变。从描述性分析中可以部分看出这一点；但我们也将通过估算短期和长期女性劳动力供给收入弹性，并研究它们在每个国家随时间的变化情况，对这一问题进行更深入的分析。这可以揭示促进过渡的体制和政策因素。与这一转变潜在相关的是，我们所有的研究国家都在实施社会保护干预措施，其中三个研究国家采取了劳动福利的形式。虽然这些方案促进了妇女劳动的缓冲作用，但它们也可能帮助妇女获得较长期的工作。我们将在自2008年以来在卢旺达开展的“愿景2020 Umurenge计划”（VUP）的背景下对此进行调查。我们非常强大的当地合作伙伴团队将与苏塞克斯的研究人员密切合作，在这个项目中发挥主导作用。这四个国家和国际上都对这些问题有强烈的政策兴趣；在所有国家，我们将从一开始就让主要利益攸关方参与进来，并与之合作。

This study will utilize household survey data from 4 African and Asian countries (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Rwanda) to examine in depth and on a comparable basis the evolving nature of female labour supply in low income countries over the past 2-3 decades, and to analyse how this has been associated with poverty reduction. We address primarily research question 1 from the call for proposals, the factors enabling households to escape from or stay out of poverty, although institutional factors (question 2) also play an important role in this analysis.The choice of countries and similarity of approach enables comparability within and between Africa and South Asia. The roles of women, including in relation to work, are often quite different between countries; and the countries have varying degrees of success in poverty reduction. The analysis draws on repeated cross section household surveys, Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data and household panel data sets.Underlying our research questions is the widely accepted fact that secure productive labour market activities are key to enable a household to escape from and stay out of poverty. We suggest that the labour market activities of women in poor households may play a key role here, whether as secondary household workers or heads in their own right. Historically females have been less able to engage in work or in more productive forms of work, representing a lost resource for the household. This situation is changing across the world; girls are now educated to higher levels, and norms which constrained female labour market activities are now less strong. A process which started in now-advanced countries is also happening in poorer countries. This affects both the extent to which women are able to work and the type of activities they can undertake. That said, it remains the case in poor countries that much female work, especially in poorer households, plays a buffering role, seeking to support the household in the face of shocks. Over time this is likely to change.The focus here is on different aspects of labour supply and how their evolution over a 20-30 year time period; we will consider participation, hours, nature of work (wage or self-employment, within or outside the household, sector, occupation etc.), and adoption of productivity enhancing measures. We will disaggregate by household type according to many criteria (geographic, socioeconomic status, household size and composition etc.). We will use the survey data to examine in detail, using a cohort approach, the associations between increased or changing female labour supply and poverty reduction, which has taken place in all countries, controlling for many other correlates.We are particularly interested in examining the transition of female work from a buffering role to a longer term income generating role. This will partly be apparent from the descriptive analysis; but we will also consider this more analytically by estimating short and long run female labour supply income elasticities and examining how they have changed over time in each country. This can shed light on the institutional and policy factors that facilitate the transition.Potentially relevant to this transition is that all our study countries are implementing social protection interventions, which in three of the study countries takes the form of workfare. Although such programmes facilitate the buffering role of female labour, they may also help women acquire longer term jobs. We will investigate this in the context of the Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme (VUP) which has been operational in Rwanda since 2008.Our very strong team of local partners will play a leading role in this project, in close partnership with Sussex researchers. And there is strong policy interest in these questions in all four countries and internationally; in all countries we will involve and work alongside key stakeholder from the beginning.