Marginalised Britain? Positions and Influence of UK Actors in EU Decision-Making

2013年5月，劳森勋爵在《泰晤士报》上撰文指出：“我们的利益不仅与欧元区成员国的利益越来越不同，而且，尽管我们从未‘处于欧洲的核心’……我们现在正变得越来越被边缘化，因为我们注定会一直被欧元区集团击败。”(奈杰尔·劳森，“我将投票退出欧盟”，泰晤士报，2013年5月7日)随着欧盟的核心项目正在深化欧洲货币联盟，并与欧洲货币联盟一起建立政治联盟，许多人与劳森勋爵一样，担心英国在这个“新欧盟”中被边缘化。例如，英国在银行家奖金上限问题上的失败，经常被认为是“欧元区党团会议”反对英国利益的一个例子。尽管如此，其他分析人士认为，既然拯救欧元的基础设施已经建成，欧盟就回到了加强和改革单一市场的核心业务上。在这个项目中，英国的参与者--部长、欧洲议会议员和新任英国专员--是欧盟主流的一部分，甚至可能在为单一市场的改革和进一步自由化争取支持方面起到“带头作用”。因此，该奖学金的关键问题是：在过去10年里，英国在欧盟决策中是否或多或少地被边缘化了？为了回答这个问题，我将仔细研究2004年7月1日至2015年12月31日期间英国“参与者”在欧盟决策中的地位和影响力的经验证据。该项目将考察欧洲理事会中的英国部长、COREPER中的英国官员、英国欧洲议会议员和欧洲议会中的英国政党的行为和影响力。我将使用我自己现有的研究和数据(关于理事会和欧洲议会的投票)，并将用来自大量来源的数据以及其他政治学家现有的研究来补充这些数据。该项目旨在评估一系列问题，包括：英国行为者在欧盟立法过程中站在输赢一方的频率；英国行为者相对于其他成员国行为者的影响力和权力模式是否在政策问题上有所不同；该项目将使用一系列先进的分析技术，例如对欧洲议会和欧洲议会的投票记录进行比对，以确定英国参与者与欧洲议会、欧洲议会和欧洲议会中的关键政治团体之间的“距离”。该项目还将研究英国明显“边缘化”的几个关键立法案例研究，例如对银行家奖金的上限，并将评估这些案例中的模式是否可以推广。该项目的结果将通过面向政策制定者、媒体、意见倍增器和更广泛的公众的产出来传播。该项目将编制一份重要的政策报告，总结主要发现。在项目期间，我将在伦敦证交所的EUROPP和ESRC的英国-欧盟网站英国政治和政策博客上写10篇博客文章(关于项目的每个关键要素)，并将尝试在卫报博客上辛迪加这些文章中的几篇(伦敦证交所BPP博客与卫报有持续的协议)。我还将通过我自己的Twitter账户(拥有约6,000名关注者)以及伦敦证交所政府部门和VoteWatch账户，通过社交媒体推广政策报告和博客文章。该项目将为英国政策制定者组织一次非正式的简报会，在那里将介绍和讨论政策报告。伦敦政治经济学院还将举行一场备受瞩目的公开活动：公开圆桌会议辩论，届时将介绍政策报告中的关键发现，并与来自英国主要政党以及其他几个欧盟成员国的政界人士和/或政策制定者进行讨论。

Lord Lawson, writing in the The Times in May 2013, argued that:"Not only do our interests increasingly differ from those of the eurozone members but, while never 'at the heart of Europe' ... we are now becoming increasingly marginalised as we are doomed to being consistently outvoted by the eurozone bloc" (Nigel Lawson, "I'll be Voting to Quit the EU", The Times, 7 May 2013)With the core project of the EU now deepening EMU and building political union alongside EMU, many share Lord Lawson's fear of UK marginalisation in this "new EU". For example, the defeat of the UK on the cap on bankers' bonuses is often cited as a case of "Eurozone caucusing" against British interests. Nevertheless, other analysts argue that now that the infrastructure for saving the Euro has been built, the EU is back to its core business of strengthening and reforming the single market. In this project, British actors - ministers, MEPs, and the new UK Commissioner - are part of the EU mainstream and perhaps even "leading from the front" in building support for reform and further liberalisation of the single market.So, the key question for the Fellowship is: has the UK become more or less marginalised in EU decision-making over the past 10 years?To answer this question I will look carefully at the empirical evidence relating to the positions and influence of UK "actors" in EU decision-making between 1 July 2004 and 31 December 2015. The project will look at the behaviour and influence of UK ministers in the Council, UK officials in COREPER, UK MEPs, and UK parties in the European Parliament. I will use my own existing research and data (on voting in the Council and European Parliament), and will supplement these with data from a large number of sources as well as existing research by other political scientists. The project aims to assess a number of issues, including: how often have UK actors been on the winning or losing side in the EU legislative process; whether the patterns of influence and power of UK actors, relative to the actors from other member states, have varied across policy issues; and whether there has been an emerging Eurozone (plus "pre-ins") caucus, in general or on specific policy issues (such as financial services, justice and home affairs etc.).The project will use a range of advanced analytical techniques, such as scaling of recorded votes in the Council and European Parliament to identify the "distances" between UK actors and the average members of the Council, the European Parliament, and the key political groups in the EP. The project will also look at several key legislative case studies of apparent UK "marginalisation", such as the cap on bankers' bonus, and will assess whether the patterns in these cases can be generalised.The results of the project will be disseminated through outputs aimed at policymakers, the media, opinion multipliers, and the wider public. The project will produce a major policy report summarising the key findings. During the project I will write 10 blog articles (one on each of the key elements of the project) on the LSE's EUROPP and the British Politics and Policy blogs, the ESRC's UK-EU website and will try to have several of these pieces syndicated on The Guardian blog (the LSE BPP blog has an on-going agreement with The Guardian). I will also promote the policy report and the blog pieces by social media, via my own Twitter account (with c.6,000 followers) as well as the LSE Government Department and VoteWatch accounts.The project will organise an off-the-record briefing for UK policy-makers, where the policy report will be presented and discussed. There will also be a high-profile public event at LSE: a public roundtable debate, where the key findings in the policy report will be presented and discussed with politicians and/or policy-makers from the main political parties in the UK as well as from several other EU member states.