1. Modelling the economic impacts of "Brexit". 2. Free movement: economic and social impacts, past and future

研究将集中在两个关键领域：-欧盟内部人员的自由流动;目前英国成员国身份中最具争议的一个方面。这将涵盖欧盟内部移民对英国的经济，社会和政治影响;潜在的未来影响，如果英国留在欧盟内，如果它不，包括长期经济和财政影响的新模型：英国的移民政策选择，如果它离开英国作为欧盟;自由流动对其他欧盟国家的影响的比较分析。- 解决英国可能退出欧盟的经济影响的关键问题，通过对英国在欧盟内外可能的未来经济情景的规范，阐述和量化。这将尽可能利用NIESR的全球宏观经济计量模型NiGEM，并尽可能涵盖欧盟成员国的不同经济方面（贸易、监管、资本流动、自由流动、预算支出等）。此外，我们将确定进一步研究可以促进我们对这些影响的理解的证据差距，NIESR特别适合开展这项工作。- 15年来，我一直活跃在移民研究领域，并负责英国政府对移民影响的第一次重大研究。（Portes，2001年），以及对欧盟移民对劳动力市场影响的首次分析（Portes和French，2006年）;作为一名高级公务员，我密切参与了与政府自由流动有关的政策决定;我现在是公开评论移民问题的最著名的学者，经常出现在广播和印刷媒体上。- NIESR是英国唯一一家拥有完整的全球经济结构计量经济学模型的学术机构，该模型包含英国和所有重要欧盟经济体的国家模型; NiGEM此前曾被用于估计英国退出的转型成本和经济动态（Pan和Young，2004年）;英格兰银行、欧洲中央银行、国际货币基金组织、经合组织和其他几家欧洲中央银行将其用于模拟目的。NiGEM特别适合于对欧盟退出的潜在影响进行可靠建模所需的模拟分析类型。- NIESR在政策制定者（HMT、OBR、BIS、BoE）和商界（CBI、FSB等）之间拥有良好的联系网络，他们将帮助为研究提供信息，并将成为产出的主要受众。我们还与欧盟其他地方的类似研究机构以及布鲁塞尔的政策制定者建立了联系。- NIESR的苏格兰奖学金的未来的记录表明我们有能力产生及时，客观，学术高质量的研究，并广泛传播给决策者，媒体和公众。安格斯阿姆斯特朗在苏格兰的大部分作品的合著者莫尼克·埃贝尔也将参与这个项目。产出将是若干学科现有工作的综合和新的定量和定性研究的结合。基于NIESR现有的网络和良好的业绩记录，以及我个人的媒体形象，我们设想通过传统和创新渠道开展一项非常积极的传播计划。NIESR非常适合开展一项积极的方案，不仅传播这项研究的成果，而且传播ESRC方案更广泛工作的成果。考虑到我们的地理位置和我们与经济政策制定者的密切联系（我们与财政部、国际清算银行、英格兰银行、DWP和OBR有着良好的联系），我们可以作为政策制定者参与该计划的中心。如果获得资助，我们还将寻求与欧盟其他地方的研究伙伴合作开展进一步的工作，可能还包括美国。

The research will focus on two key areas:- Free movement of people within the European Union; currently the single most controversial aspect of the UK's membership . This will cover the economic, social and political impact of intra-EU migration on the UK; potential future impacts, if the UK remains within the EU, and if it does not, including new modelling of the long-term economic and fiscal impacts: migration policy options for the UK if it leaves the UK as EU; comparative analysis of the impact of free movement on other EU countries. - Addressing the key question of the economic impact of a possible UK exit, through the specification, elaboration and quantification of possible future economic scenarios for the UK, inside or outside the EU. This will make use where possible of NIESR's global macroeconometric model, NiGEM, and cover as far as possible the different economic aspects of EU membership (trade, regulation, capital mobility, free movement, budgetary spending, etc). In addition we will identify evidence gaps where further research could advance our understanding of these impactsI, and NIESR, are particularly well placed to undertake this work. - I have been active in immigration research for 15 years, and was responsible for the first major UK government study of the impacts of immigration (Portes, 2001), as well as the first analysis of the labour market impacts of EU migration (Portes and French, 2006); as a senior civil servant, I was closely involved in policy decisions relating to free movement in government; and I am now the most prominent academic commenting publicly on immigration issues, appearing frequently in both broadcast and print media. - NIESR is the only UK academic institution which possesses a fully specified structural econometric model of the global economy, incorporating country models of the UK and all significant EU economies; NiGEM has previously been used to estimate the transition costs and economic dynamics of UK exit (Pan and Young, 2004); it is used by the Bank of England, ECB, IMF, OECD and several other European central banks for simulation purposes. NiGEM is particularly well suited for the type of simulation analysis required for credible modelling of the potential impacts of EU exit across a number of dimensions. - NIESR has an excellent network of contacts among policymakers (HMT, OBR, BIS, BoE) and the business community (CBI, FSB, etc) who will both help inform the research and will be key audiences for the output. We also have links with comparable research institutions elsewhere in the EU and with policymakers in Brussels. - NIESR's record on the Future of Scotland fellowship shows our capacity to produce timely, objective, academically high quality research and to disseminate it widely to policymakers, media and the general public. Monique Ebell, Angus Armstrong's co-author for much of the Scotland work, will also work on this project. The outputs will be a combination of synthesis of existing work across a number of disciplines and new research, quantitative and qualitative. Building on NIESR's existing networks and strong track record, as well as my own personal media profile, we envisage a very active programme of dissemination through both traditional and innovative channels. NIESR is extremely well placed to undertake an active programme of dissemination of the outputs not just of this research but of the wider work of the ESRC programme. Given both our geographic location and our close contact with economic policymakers (we have excellent links with the Treasury, BIS, Bank of England, DWP, and OBR) we could serve as a hub for engaging policymakers with the programme. If funded, we would also look to undertake further work in cooperation with research partners elsewhere in the EU, and possibly in the US.