Innovations in Small Area Estimation Methodologies

可靠的统计数据对于政策相关研究至关重要。小面积估计方法在地理尺度上产生稳健、可靠和一致的统计数据，而对于这些地理尺度，调查数据要么不存在，要么太稀疏，无法提供可接受准确度的直接估计。在过去的十年中，SAE的使用迅速增加。统计机构和政府组织正在积极开发自己的估计套件。在英国，国家统计局（ONS）对用户的需求做出了回应，对病房的平均家庭收入进行了估计，并使用SAE回答了地方当局、政策顾问和政府部门的询问。威尔士议会政府正在积极寻求发展SAE的能力。英格兰公共卫生部产生了青少年吸烟和慢性肾病严重不良事件，最初对小区域统计的需求现在正在转变为对更复杂统计的需求，这些统计超出了平均数和比例，包括统计分布估计数、多层面指标（如不平等和贫困指标）以及取代人口普查和调整人口普查结果以弥补统计不足的方法。这些发展中的要求提出了重大的方法和应用现实世界的挑战。这些挑战因SAE的不同方法论方法而加深，这些方法论方法在很大程度上保持不相关，被锁定在学科孤岛中。拟议的工作方案旨在：（a）开发新的SAE方法，以更好地满足SAE用户和制作者的需要;（B）将SAE的不同方法学方法联系起来，（c）应用SAE回答社会科学中的实质性问题;通过创建方法全面和可访问的资源，将SAE纳入定量社会科学的主流。该项目包括三个方法创新研究工作包，旨在加深对SAE的理解并实现上述目标。该项目将利用一个跨学科的研究团队，通过NCRM方法网络聚集在一起，反映了英国SAE专业知识的很大一部分。通过与英国、墨西哥和巴西的国家和国际机构的长期合作，我们可以获得个人层面的二次调查和人口普查数据。与SAE主要用户的合作将确保该项目与用户需求保持相关性，并确保使用各种方法来扩大现有的小地区统计数据集。国际专家的参与确保了研究的质量和相关性，实质性产出将包括用户感兴趣属性的严重严重不良事件，包括收入、不平等、贫困、健康、族裔和供其他研究人员使用的现实的伪普查数据集。该项目将促进社会科学各学科的知识，包括社会统计学，应用经济学，人文地理学和社会学。它还将对官方和人口普查统计数据的编制产生影响。该项目致力于通过开发新的资源，增加NCRM的培训和能力建设活动的价值。

Reliable statistics are crucial for policy relevant research. Small Area Estimation (SAE) methods generate robust reliable and consistent statistics at geographical scales for which survey data are either non-existent or too sparse to provide direct estimates of acceptable accuracy. The last decade has seen a rapid increase in the use of SAE. Statistical agencies and Governmental organisations are actively developing their own suites of estimates. In the UK the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has responded to user demands by producing estimates of average household income for wards and using SAE to answer queries from local authorities, policy advisers and government departments. The Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) is actively seeking to develop capacity for SAE. Public Health England produces SAEs of adolescent smoking and chronic kidney disease.Initial demands for small area statistics are now shifting to requirements for more complex statistics that extend beyond averages and proportions to encompass estimates of statistical distributions, multidimensional indicators (e.g. inequality and deprivation indicators) and methods for replacing the Census and adjusting Census results for undercount. These developing requirements pose significant methodological and applied real-world challenges. These challenges are deepened by different methodological approaches to SAE remaining largely unconnected, locked in disciplinary silos. The technical presentation of SAE also impedes more widespread uptake by social scientists and understanding by users.The proposed programme of work aims to (a) develop novel SAE methodologies to better serve the needs of users and producers of SAE (b) bridge different methodological approaches to SAE, (c) apply SAE for answering substantive questions in the social sciences and (d) 'Mainstream' SAE within the quantitative social sciences through the creation of methodologically comprehensive and accessible resources. The project comprises three work packages of methodological innovative research designed to deepen the understanding of SAE and achieve the aforementioned aims. The project will capitalise on a cross-disciplinary research team drawn together through an NCRM methodological network and reflecting a large part of the SAE expertise in the UK. Through long-standing collaborations with national and international agencies in the UK, Mexico and Brazil, which are placed at the centre of the project, we enjoy access to individual level secondary survey and Census data. Collaboration with key SAE users will ensure that the project remains relevant to user needs and that methodologies are used for expanding the set of small area statistics currently available. The involvement of international experts ensures the quality and relevance of the research.Substantive outputs will include SAEs of attributes of interest to users, including income, inequality, deprivation, health, ethnicity and a realistic pseudo-Census dataset for use by other researchers. The project will advance knowledge across disciplines in the social sciences including social statistics, applied economics, human geography and sociology. It will additionally impact on the production of official and Census statistics. The project is committed to adding value to NCRM's training and capacity building activities by developing new resources.