The contentious politics of the census in consociational democracies

该项目调查了在种族、宗教或语言方面存在严重分歧的社会中人口普查的政治，解决了RCUK全球不确定性跨理事会研究计划中的一些核心主题。在刚刚摆脱不同种族、宗教或语言群体之间暴力冲突的社会中，和平往往是通过这些群体分享权力的协议来维持的。就这种权力分享达成协议的主要方式之一是将政府、公务员制度、军队和警察的作用按比例分配给发生冲突的各集团的成员。例如，和平协议可能会规定，议会中一定比例的席位保留给某一特定少数群体的成员。然而，为了评估这种比例是什么样的，需要进行准确的人口普查。在这种情况下进行人口普查的过程可能特别具有挑战性，特别是当群体领导人知道他们的政治权力部分取决于结果时。这可能会导致关于人口普查问题措辞的激烈辩论，人口普查本身的进行可能会受到让受访者以特定方式回答问题的运动的影响，因为他们相信这将影响他们的政治代表性。在严重分裂的社会中，人口普查政治的这一方面还没有被社会科学家进行过深入的研究，因此我们对这些社会中政治制度的设计与人口普查成为有争议的政治辩论主题的可能性之间的关系知之甚少。本研究项目将通过在四个严重分裂的社会：波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、北爱尔兰、肯尼亚和黎巴嫩检查人口普查的政治来解决这一知识缺乏问题。在设计和实施该项目的过程中，我将与政策制定者和实践者合作，以了解如何在严重分裂的社会中缓解关于人口普查的政治辩论，从而促进以前处于冲突中的群体之间的和平关系。为了实现这一目标，我将开展广泛的实地调查，包括对四个案例研究国家以及负责制定人口普查标准的国际组织（包括联合国统计司和欧盟统计局）的主要决策者和民间社会代表进行焦点小组和访谈。在项目的研究设计阶段在布鲁塞尔举行的一个讲习班将使对人口普查感兴趣的决策者和民间社会成员能够对项目的设计提供意见，知识合作生产将通过与实践者的对话继续进入分析阶段。实地工作成功结束后，产出将包括传统的学术出版物，包括一本书和期刊文章，但也包括更容易获得的政策摘要和在线媒体的文章。研究结果还将通过在布鲁塞尔举行的进一步公众参与活动进行传播。这个项目也将有助于我作为一个研究人员的发展。作为拟议项目的一部分，我将接受焦点小组方法、公众参与和与媒体互动方面的培训。我还将与多个学科的知名研究人员建立联系，包括政治学、地理学和人类学。这个项目的完成将有助于使我成为人口普查政治和深度分裂社会的主要研究人员。从进行研究中获得的经验将使我能够对这些主题的公开辩论做出明智的贡献，也将扩大我为伯明翰大学国际发展部学生提供的教学范围。

This project investigates the politics of the census in societies that are deeply divided along ethnic, religious or linguistic lines, addressing some of the core themes in the RCUK Cross-Council Research Programme on Global Uncertainties.In societies that are emerging from violent conflict between different ethnic, religious or linguistic groups, peace is often maintained through an agreement that these groups will share power. One of the main ways in which agreement on such power sharing is reached is through the proportional allocation of roles in government, the civil service, the military and the police to members of the groups who have been in conflict. For example, the peace agreement might specify that a certain proportion of the parliament is reserved for members of a particular minority group. In order to assess what such proportionality looks like, though, an accurate census is required. The process of conducting a census in this context can be particularly challenging, especially when group leaders know that their share of political power is partly dependent on the results. This can result in intense debates about how census questions are worded, and the conduct of the census itself may be affected by campaigns to get respondents to answer questions in particular ways, in the belief that this will influence their political representation.This aspect of the politics of the census in deeply divided societies has not been studied in significant depth by social scientists, and as a result we know little about the relationship between the design of political institutions in these societies and the likelihood of the census becoming the subject of contentious political debates. This research project will address this lack of knowledge through examining the politics of the census in four deeply divided societies: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Ireland, Kenya and Lebanon. In designing and conducting the project, I will work with policy-makers and practitioners in order to generate knowledge about how contentious political debates about the census in deeply divided societies can be mitigated, thus contributing to peaceful relations between groups that have previously been in conflict.I will achieve this by conducting extensive fieldwork, involving focus groups and interviews with key policy-makers and civil society representatives in the four case-study countries as well as at international organisations with responsibility for setting census standards, including the United Nations Statistics Division and Eurostat. A workshop held in Brussels during the research design phase of the project will allow policy-makers and members of civil society with an interest in the census to have an input into the design of the project, and knowledge co-production will continue into the analysis phase through dialogue with practitioners. Following the successful conclusion of the fieldwork, outputs will include traditional academic publications including a book and journal articles, but also more accessible policy summaries and articles for online media outlets. The findings of the research will also be disseminated through a further public engagement event in Brussels.The project will also contribute to my own development as a researcher. As part of the proposed project, I will undertake training in focus group methods, public engagement and interaction with the media. I will also build links with established researchers across a number of disciplines, including political science, geography and anthropology. Completion of the project will help to establish me as a leading researcher into the politics of the census and of deeply divided societies. The experience gained from conducting the research will enable me to make informed contributions to public debate on these topics, and also to broaden the range of teaching that I offer to students in the International Development Department at the University of Birmingham.