The Microeconomic Consequences of Brexit

这项拟议中的研究旨在研究英国脱欧和未来可能达成的贸易协定对英国一系列经济结果的影响。将重点关注在地方一级对个人和公司的影响。因此，我们打算绘制一幅清晰的画面，展示英国脱欧公投对该国不同地区的实际影响，以及由于我们未来与欧盟和世界其他地区的接触，不同地区的个别公司和工人可能会发生什么。迄今为止，大多数分析都集中在英国脱欧对整个英国经济的广泛影响上，但很少关注各种贸易协议情景的区域和局部影响。由于英国各地区在主导当地经济的行业类型上存在差异，因此不同的贸易协定可能会对不同地区产生不同的影响。例如，金融是伦敦的主导行业，而制造业相对较小；相反，在英格兰东北部，制造业占主导地位，而金融业对当地经济的贡献很小。鉴于目前英国在就业和工资方面存在的地区差异，了解贸易协定如何缓解或加剧现有的分歧是至关重要的。本研究特别打算评估各种贸易协定对不同区域个人生活水平的长期影响。这将通过考察对当地工资、工资分配、商品和服务价格可能产生的影响来评估。与此相关的是对企业可能产生的影响的调查，例如它们的生产率水平，以及对企业规模等因素在决定当地影响方面是否重要的评估。它还将评估英国脱欧公投后立即发生的变化所带来的短期影响。例如，在英国脱欧公投后，英镑立即贬值，某些公司的股市估值发生了变化。我们将研究这两种效应对工资、就业以及当地商品和服务价格等区域结果的影响。最终，拟议研究的主要目标是确定在与欧盟和世界其他地区的接触中为英国提供最大经济利益的政策。我们希望该项目的研究结果能够提供有力的证据，证明哪些贸易政策可以最好地考虑到英国经济不同地区和不同部门的需求。

The proposed research intends to examine the effects of both Brexit and future possible trade agreements on a number of economic outcomes for the UK. There will be a strong focus on the effects at a local level on both individuals and firms. As a result we intend to draw a clear picture showing how the Brexit vote has actually affected different parts of the country, and what might happen to individual firms and workers in different regions as a result of our future engagement with the European Union and rest of the world.To date most analysis has focused on the broad effects of Brexit on the UK economy as a whole, but little attention has been given to the regional and local effects of various trade deal scenarios. As areas in the UK differ in terms of which type of industry dominate the local economy, it is likely that different trade deals will have differing effects on different regions. For example, finance is a leading sector in London while manufacturing is relatively small: conversely in the North East of England, the manufacturing sector dominates, while finance contributes little to the local economy. Given the regional disparity that exists in terms of employment and wages in the UK currently, it is vital to understand how trade agreements may alleviate or exacerbate the existing division.In particular this research intends to assess the longer term impact of various trade agreements on the living standards of individuals in different regions. This will be assessed through examining the likely impact on wages, the wage distribution, and prices for goods and services in local areas. Related to this is an investigation of the likely impact on firms, such as their productivity levels and an assessment as to whether factors such as firm size are important in determining local effects. It will also assess the shorter term impacts resulting from changes occurring immediately after the Brexit vote. For example, directly after the Brexit vote there was a depreciation of the pound and stock market valuations of certain companies changed. We will examine the impact of these two effects on regional outcomes such as wages, employment, and the prices of local goods and services.Ultimately, the main objective of the proposed research is to identify policies that would provide the greatest economic benefits to the UK in its engagement with the European Union and the rest of the world. We expect the findings of the project to provide robust evidence as to which trade policies can best take into account the needs of different regions and different sectors of the UK economy.