Migration, Urbanisation and Socio-Economic Change, England and Wales 1851-1911

长期以来，移民一直被认为是经济、社会和人口变化的重要推动力。它既是对工资率的反应，也是决定因素，它是疾病的载体，它塑造了我们的地方感。然而，数据的缺乏意味着对19世纪英格兰和威尔士内部移民的全面分析是不可能的。最近发布的综合人口普查微数据（I-CeM）数据库——包含大约1.6亿个人层面的回报——意味着1851年至1911年英格兰和威尔士人口普查中报告的全体人口的特定出生地点可用于绘制数百万条终身迁移路径。通过分析移徙、工资、运输网络和社会经济背景之间不断变化的关系，就有可能了解移徙的决定因素及其在六十年期间对移徙者离开和进入的社区的影响。1851年至1911年期间，移民也从根本上改变了英国人口的状况。1851年，英格兰和威尔士的城市人口首次超过一半（50.4%），仅仅60年后，这一比例就上升到78.9%，城市人口从1060万增加到2820万，几乎增加了两倍。因此，这项研究将为推动个人移民选择的机制提供更深入的见解，这些选择以快速城市化的形式表现出来。它将处理下列问题；如果移民对工资差异有反应，为什么当农业工资高的时候，农村到城市的移民会达到顶峰？不断增长的铁路网对移民流动有什么影响？移民是否倾向于在明确界定的边界内发生？这告诉了我们关于个人的地方感的什么？这项研究将分两部分进行，第一部分将考虑个人移民的动机和工资差异——将从贸易委员会的工资调查中转录出来——而第二部分将分析移民的迁移能力。除了分析随时间和空间变化的直线距离对移民流动的影响外，还将分析1831年和1911年存在的交通网络，这要归功于我提议的导师Leigh Shaw-Taylor博士和他的项目“1670-1911年英格兰和威尔士的交通、城市化和经济发展”的合作。在限制个人移民能力的因素背景下分析个人的移民动机，可以提出全新的问题。一旦考虑到工资差异，时间是否比距离更重要地决定了移民的目的地？这种情况随着网络的发展而改变了吗？为了解释移民对目的地的约束选择，作为我博士学位的一部分，我将与麻省理工学院的同事一起开发一种算法，用于识别迁移场——其中迁移数量最大、迁移数量最小的区域。这些地区如何影响个人对目的地的选择？通过分析移民在竞争选择的背景下对离开出生教区的风险和回报的评估之间的关系，可以更好地理解导致城市化和农村人口减少的机制，并作为过去和现在进一步分析城市化的基准。产出将通过将丰富的资源存入英国数据档案馆、期刊文章、专著、学术报告、潜在用户讲习班和小型会议、宣传项目和鼓励新的分析来提供。在学术界之外，将为学校、家庭/业余历史学家和公众开发在线资源。这些在线工具将促进移民研究，以满足关键阶段2-4的地方历史和地理项目的国家课程要求。

Migration has long been recognised as an important driver of economic, social and demographic change. It is both a response to, and a determinant of wage rates, it acts as a vector of disease and it shapes our sense of place. Yet a paucity of data has meant that a comprehensive analysis of internal migration in nineteenth-century England and Wales has not been possible. The recent release of the Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM) database - containing approximately 160 million individual-level returns - means that the given place of birth of the entire population as reported in the 1851-1911 censuses of England and Wales can be used to map millions of lifetime migration paths. By analysing the changing relationship between migration, wages, the transport network and the socio-economic context, it will be possible to understand both the determinants of migration and the effect it had on the communities migrants exited and entered over a sixty year period.The period 1851-1911 was also one in which migration fundamentally changed the profile of the British population. 1851 was the first year in which more than half the population of England and Wales were recorded as urban (50.4%) and just sixty years later, this had risen to 78.9%, almost trebling the urban population from 10.6 million to 28.2 million. Therefore, this study will provide deeper insights into the mechanisms driving individuals' migration choices which manifested themselves in the form of rapid urbanisation. It will address such questions as; if migrants were responsive to wage differentials, why did rural-urban migration peak when agricultural wages were high? What impact did the growing railway network have on migration flows? Did migration tend to occur within clearly defined boundaries? What does this tell us about individuals' sense of place?This study will be conducted in two strands and the first will consider individuals' incentives to migrate and wage differentials - to be transcribed from Board of Trade wage surveys - while the second will analyse migrants' capacity to move. In addition to analysing the effect of straight-line distance on migration flows over time and space, the transport network as it existed in 1831 and 1911 will be analysed thanks to a collaboration with my proposed mentor Dr Leigh Shaw-Taylor and his project 'Transport, Urbanization and Economic Development in England and Wales c. 1670-1911'.Analysing individuals' incentives to migrate in the context of factors limiting their capacity to do so allows radically new questions to be asked. Was time a more significant determinant of migrants' destination than distance once wage differentials are accounted for? Did this change as the network evolved? In order to account for migrants' constrained choice of destination, an algorithm developed with colleagues at MIT as part of my PhD will be used to identify migration fields - regions in which the number of moves within them was maximised and the number of moves between them was minimised. How did these regions shape individuals' choice of destination? By analysing the relationship between migrants' assessment of the risks and returns of leaving their parish of birth in the context of competing alternatives, the mechanisms which led to urbanisation and rural depopulation can be better understood and serve as a benchmark for further analyses of urbanisation in both the past and present.The outputs will be delivered by depositing the enriched sources with the UK Data Archive and by journal articles, a monograph, academic presentations, workshops for potential users and a small conference, publicising the project and encouraging new analyses. Outside academia online resources will be developed for schools, family/amateur historians and the public. These online tools will facilitate studies of migration which fulfills national curriculum requirements for projects in local history and geography in Key Stages 2-4.