Are only children all right? A cross-cohort analysis on the well-being of only children in the UK

在包括英国在内的许多先进社会，独生子女家庭正变得越来越普遍。在1970年左右出生的英国女性中，18%只有一个孩子，相比之下，1945年左右出生的女性(即她们母亲那一代)的这一比例为13%。之前的研究表明，尽管人们对独生子女有着强烈的负面刻板印象(独生子女因缺乏兄弟姐妹而被宠坏、过度保护和孤独)，但平均而言，独生子女的表现与兄弟姐妹很少的孩子一样好，而且比来自大家庭的孩子更好。然而，现有的证据主要来自美国在20世纪80年代或之前进行的研究，目前尚不清楚它是否适用于英国现在或过去的模式，因为独生子女家庭形成的背景及其特征可能会随着时间和空间的不同而变化。此外，人们对独生子女的长期幸福感以及在没有兄弟姐妹的情况下长大是否会影响他们年长时的生活机会和幸福感知之甚少。为了解决这些知识上的差距，我提出了一个创新的研究计划，研究在英国作为独生子女对童年和成年的影响。该项目使用了来自四个英国纵向数据集的数据：1946年全国健康与发展调查(NSHD)、1958年全国儿童发展研究(NCDS)、1970年英国队列研究(BCS)和跟踪一组2000-2002年出生的儿童的千年队列研究(MCS)。这些大型调查跟踪了队列成员从出生到出生的生活。该项目有四个主要目标：1)分析独生子女家庭的社会人口学特征，以及这些特征随着时间的推移是否以及如何发生变化；2)比较独生子女的幸福感(例如，认知能力)与随时间推移有兄弟姐妹的儿童的幸福感；3)利用1946、1958和1970年队列研究的数据，分析独生子女的社会/人口学特征(如教育、生育率、伙伴关系轨迹)和一生中独生子女的健康状况；4)使用1946年和1958年队列研究的数据来分析年长独生子女的幸福感(如健康、社会支持、孤独)。拟议的项目将在埃塞克斯大学社会经济研究所(ISER)主任Emily Grundy教授的指导下进行。ISER是生产和分析纵向研究的卓越中心，由于其强大的人口学家、流行病学家、统计学家和经济学家团队，将提供出色的研究支持。已经成立了一个咨询委员会，其中包括学术和非学术成员的代表：英国司法部、儿童协会、国家儿童局和Closer(总部设在伦敦大学学院)。咨询委员会将参与整个过程，为研究提供投入，并促进项目调查结果的传播和影响。该项目将产生至少四篇学术论文，这些论文将提交给主要的人口学/社会学/公共卫生杂志并在其上发表，在八个学术会议上介绍该项目的研究结果，以及其他传播活动，如制作新闻稿发送给高质量的媒体和通过社交媒体传播该项目的研究结果。这是英国第一个关于独生子女福祉的综合项目，它不仅有可能对科学文献做出重大贡献，而且还有可能对社会做出重大贡献，因为它的发现将立即与从事儿童和成人工作的第三部门组织、政府部门制定政策以改善问题儿童、面临孤独风险的老年人和独生子女家庭本身的生活相关。该项目还将使首席调查员能够过渡到完全独立的调查员身份。

One child families are becoming more common in many advanced societies, including the UK. 18% of U.K. women who were born around 1970 had only one child, in contrast to 13% who were born around 1945 (i.e. their mothers' generation). Previous research suggests that despite strong negative stereotypes of only children (which characterize them as spoiled, overprotected and lonely due to lack of siblings), on average, only children do as well as children with few siblings and better than children from large families. However, existing evidence largely comes from U.S. research conducted during or before the 1980s and it is unclear whether it applies to current or past patterns in the U.K. since the context in which only child families are formed and their characteristics may vary over time and space. Moreover, very little is known about the longer-term well-being of only children and whether growing up without siblings may affect their life chances and well-being in older ages. To address these gaps in knowledge, I propose an innovative programme of research to study the effects of being an only child in childhood and adulthood in the UK. The project uses data from four UK longitudinal datasets: the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS), the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS) and the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) which follows a group of children born in 2000-2002. These are large surveys which follow the lives the cohort members from birth onwards. The project has four main objectives: 1) to analyse the socio-demographic characteristics of only children families and whether and how they have changed over time; 2) to compare the well-being (e.g. cognitive) of only children relative to the well-being of children growing up with siblings over time; 3) using data from the 1946, 1958 and 1970 cohort studies to analyse the social/demographic characteristics (e.g. education, fertility, partnership trajectories) and health of only children over the life course; 4) using data from the 1946 and 1958 cohort studies to analyse the well-being (e.g. health, social support, loneliness) of only children in older age. The proposed project will be undertaken at the Institute for Social and Economics Research (ISER) at the University of Essex under the mentorship of the director of ISER Prof. Emily Grundy. ISER, a centre of excellence in the production and analysis of longitudinal studies, will provide excellent research support given its strong team of demographers, epidemiologists, statisticians and economists. An advisory board has been set up which includes representation from academic and non-academic members: the UK Ministry of Justice, the Children's Society, the National Children's Bureau and CLOSER (based at UCL). The advisory board will be involved throughout the process by providing input into the research and by promoting the dissemination and impact of the project's findings. The project will produce at least four academic papers which will be submitted to and published in leading demography/sociology/public health journals, presentation of the project's findings at eight academic conferences, and other dissemination activities such as producing press releases to be sent to high quality media and disseminating the project's findings through social media. This is the first comprehensive project on the well-being of only children in the U.K. and it has the potential to make a significant contribution not only to the scientific literature but also to society as its findings will be immediately relevant to third sector organizations working with children and adults, government departments designing policies to improve the lives of troubled children and of older people at risk of loneliness and only children families themselves. The project will also enable the principal investigator to transition to full independent investigator status.