Britain's first demographic transition: an integrated geography

这个项目将展示19世纪晚期英国的第一个历史人口地理。这是一个前所未有的人口变化时期，死亡率和生育率都开始了第一次人口转型的长期急剧下降。国家趋势已经确立：儿童和成年早期死亡率开始下降，婴儿死亡率落后，特别是在城市工业地区。生育率的下降是由中产阶级导致的，但很快传遍了整个社会。从农村到城市的流动推动了城市的发展，但也有相当多的海外移民，特别是来自苏格兰的移民，尽管在某种程度上，外迁被移民所抵消。这些模式存在地方和区域差异，苏格兰与英格兰和威尔士的人口经验也存在差异。苏格兰人结婚较晚，但婚姻内生育率较高，而且苏格兰人死亡率的下降速度比边境以南的苏格兰人慢。然而，虽然对每个国家内部的地方和区域模式进行了研究，但这些研究主要是分开进行的，因此不清楚是否存在真正的民族差异，或是否存在跨国界的地方人口连续性，如果有，是否遵循经济、职业、文化甚至语言的界线。了解人口过程涉及对生育率、死亡率、结婚率和移徙等基本人口组成部分之间相互作用的全面认识，以及它们如何结合在一起，与经济和文化进程相互作用，通过人口和思想的传播创造一个特定的人口系统。这个项目是第一个在第一次人口转型中考虑整个大不列颠历史人口地理的项目，将小地理区域的结婚率、生育率、死亡率和移民的测量数据汇总在一起，并揭示了它们是如何相互作用的，从而产生了苏格兰、英格兰和威尔士更容易获得的广泛的国家模式。我们将以维多利亚时期英格兰和威尔士的生育率项目为基础，该项目使用了英格兰和威尔士的完整人口普查数据，计算出比以往任何时候都更详细的生育率指标，涵盖了大约2000个小地理区域和8个社会群体，从而可以调查城市内部和城乡之间的生育率差异。新的测量方法使我们能够首次检查两国的生育年龄模式。我们还能够从人口普查数据中计算上下文变量，这使我们能够对生育率的影响进行空间分析。除了学术论文外，我们之前的项目还在交互式在线地图集populationspast.org上以精细的空间分辨率提供了汇总数据，这是一个重要的新资源，已经在中小学和大学中广泛用作教学工具。在这个新项目中，我们将使用苏格兰1851年至1901年的完整人口普查数据来计算生育率和背景变量的可比措施，以补充英格兰和威尔士的数据。然而，我们的新项目将走得更远，并将结合苏格兰、英格兰和威尔士的特定地区的死亡率和移民指标。我们将使用现有的数据集，在比以前更精细的地理水平上，为整个大不列颠提供关于生育率、死亡率和移民的新的年龄特定数据，并将对这些数据进行空间和时间上的分析，以全面了解推动这一人口和社会变革关键时期的力量。我们将扩展populationspast.org，将我们的新发现带给广泛的学术和非学术受众，并将为其他人提供交互式探索的数据。

This project will present the first historic population geography of Great Britain during the late nineteenth century. This was a period of unprecedented demographic change, when both mortality and fertility started the dramatic secular declines of the first demographic transition. National trends are well established: mortality decline started in childhood and early adulthood, with infant mortality lagging behind, particularly in urban-industrial areas. The fall in fertility was led by the middle classes but quickly spread throughout society. Urban growth was fuelled by movement from the countryside to the city, but there was also considerable migration overseas, particularly from Scotland, although to some extent outmigration was offset by immigration. There was local and regional variation in these patterns, and a contrast between the demographic experiences of Scotland and of England and Wales. Marriage was later in Scotland but fertility within marriage higher, and the improvement in Scottish mortality was slower than that south of the border. However, while there has been research on local and regional patterns within each country, these have mainly been pursued separately, and it is therefore unclear whether there were real national differences or whether there were local demographic continuities across borders, and if so whether they followed economic, occupational, cultural or even linguistic lines. Understanding population processes involves a holistic appreciation of the interaction between the basic demographic components of fertility, mortality, nuptiality and migration, and how they come together, interacting with economic and cultural processes, to create a specific demographic system via the spread of people and ideas. This project is the first to consider a historical population geography of the whole of Great Britain across the first demographic transition, drawing together measures of nuptiality, fertility, mortality and migration for small geographic areas and unpacking how they interacted to produce the more readily available broad-brush national patterns for Scotland and for England and Wales.We will build on our immensely successful project on the fertility of Victorian England and Wales, which used complete count census data for England and Wales to calculate more detailed fertility measures than ever previously possible for some 2000 small geographic areas and 8 social groups, allowing the investigation of intra-urban as well as urban-rural differences in fertility. The new measures allowed us to examine age patterns of fertility across the two countries for the first time. We were also able to calculate contextual variables from the census data which allowed us to undertake spatial analysis of the influences on fertility over time. As well as academic papers, our previous project presented summary data at a fine spatial resolution in an interactive online atlas, populationspast.org, a major new resource which is already being widely used as a teaching tool in both schools and universities. In this new project we will calculate comparable measures of fertility and contextual variables using the full count census data for Scotland, 1851 to 1901 inclusive, to complement those for England and Wales. However, our new project will go considerably further and will integrate place-specific measures of mortality and migration, for both Scotland and for England and Wales. We will provide new age-specific data on fertility, mortality and migration for the whole of Great Britain using existing datasets, at a finer geographic level than has previously been possible, and will analyse these spatially and temporally to gain a panoramic understanding of the forces driving this crucial period of demographic and social change. We will expand populationspast.org to bring our new findings to a wide academic and non-academic audience and will provide the data for others to explore interactively.