Rethinking Climate Change in the Cauvery Delta Through Long Term Historical Data

根据第五次政府间气候变化专门委员会的数据，南亚有2.3亿人面临气候变化的风险，这是所有单一地区中最大的。最近对考弗里三角洲，以及更广泛的印度气候变化的研究，主要是从20世纪70年代世界银行和印度空间研究组织(卫星)的数据开始的，这些数据显示了自那时以来气候急剧变化的方式。然而，这些研究是基于30年来的数据。该项目利用历史数据来了解特定空间气候变化的规模、气候变化所构成的威胁、有效地预测长期趋势并编制适应战略。(Mahony and Endfield 2018；Amrith 2016)。利用长期历史数据，研究人员可以a)消除并非直接气候变化影响的周期模式；b)确定变化的长期模式(无论是突然增加、减少还是逐渐变化)；c)确定较老的制度如何适应温度或灾难的变化。该项目将整理从殖民地省政府发布并持续到后殖民时代的报告中收集的详细数据集。第一份是马德拉斯总统任期(1905-1954)的季节性和作物报告。这份报告载有按地区划分的每月统计数字和有关降雨量与该地区平均降雨量比较的定性资料、普遍温度、淤泥淤积水平、不同季节种植的作物以及雨量不足或过剩的情况。1905年以前的数据不是系统的，但数据是通过三个来源收集的，包括印度六个站的气象观测(1879-1894年)；东印度公司马德拉斯天文台的气象观测(1841-1890年)；印度的降雨量(1891-1950年)和气旋回忆录(1888-1893年)。数据集将包括一个可搜索的按年逐月的降雨量、温度、泥沙沉积、作物种植指数，系统地从1905-1950年，以不太系统的方式从1860-1905年。我将与法国Pondicherry研究所(IFP)的地理信息系统技术人员合作，将数据转移到两种地图上。首先，创建的三幅历史地图(1888年、1917年和1945年，都有地理参考)将包括这些年的静止图像，并包含多个变量(颜色编码)，以清晰地可视化变化。变量将被添加为彩色编码图形，用户可以使用这些图形同时显示近百年来的降雨量、温度和植被变化。其次，某些地图将描绘多年的洪水或干旱(例如1872年和1924年)，以显示历史上极端天气事件是如何发生的(Knowles和Hillier，2008)。该数据集将允许研究人员提出以下问题：1860年至1950年的温度和降雨量模式是什么？有证据表明，直到1950年，热浪和洪水一直在增加吗？有没有周期性天气模式的证据？在哪个时期(在什么天气条件下)农业相对稳定？哪些地区的作物类型变化最大？这是因为气候条件还是其他因素？(杂交种子、氮基肥料的使用等)在数据集的旁边，我将写两个农民的生活史，讲述一个关于气候变化、适应气候变化和经济掠夺的故事，这些故事发生在考弗里三角洲农民的一生中。被选中的农民是十多岁的人，居住在考弗里三角洲的不同地区。我将从气候变化的角度记录他们的生活故事，他们是如何适应的，他们面临的挑战。提出的问题将涉及气温升高或下降、水质和可用性、作物播种的变化、淤泥沉积水平的变化、海岸侵蚀以及这些因素如何影响社会关系，以及相应地策划的研究结果(Adamson、Hannaford和Rohland 2018；Singh 2019)。

According to the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 230 million people in South Asia are at risk fromClimate Change, the largest of any single region. Recent studies of the Cauvery delta, and more generally climatechange in India, begin largely with World Bank and Indian Space Research Organization (satellite) data from the1970s, showing the ways in which the climate is acutely changing since then. However, these studies are based onthirty years of data. This project uses historical data to comprehend the scale of space specific climate change, thethreats posed, effectively predict long-term trends and prepare adaptation strategies. (Mahony and Endfield 2018;Amrith 2016). Using long term historical data allows researchers to a) eliminate cyclical patterns not as effects ofimmediate climate change b) identify long term patterns of change (whether this is a sudden increase, decrease orgradual) c) identify how older regimes adapted to change in temperature or disasters.The project will curate a detailed dataset collected from reports that were published by the colonial provincialgovernment and continued into the postcolonial era. The first is the Seasonal and Crop report of the Madras presidency(1905-1954). This report contains district wise monthly statistics and qualitative information on rainfall compared tothe average rainfall for the district, the prevalent temperature, level of silt deposits, the crops grown in differentseasons and any shortfall or excess of rain. Data prior to 1905 is not systematic, but data has been gathered throughthree sources including the Meteorological Observations Recorded at Six Stations in India (1879-1894);Meteorological Observations made at the East India Company's Observatory at Madras (1841-1890); Rainfall ofIndia (1891-1950) and Cyclone Memoirs (1888-1893). The dataset will comprise of a searchable year-wise monthlyindex of rainfall, temperature, silt deposit, crops grown, in a systematic manner from 1905-1950, and in a lesssystematic manner from 1860-1905.I will work with GIS technicians at the French Institute of Pondicherry (IFP) to transfer the data on to maps of twokinds. First, three historical maps (from 1888, 1917 and 1945, all georeferenced) created will include still images ofthese years and contain multiple variables (colour coded), to visualize change clearly. Variables will be added ascolour coded graphics which users can then use to simultaneously picture rainfall, temperature and vegetationchanging over a close to a hundred years. Second, certain maps will picture years of floods or drought (for instance1872 and 1924), to show how extreme weather events have occurred historically (Knowles and Hillier 2008). Thedataset will allow researchers to ask the following questionsWhat are the patterns in temperature and rainfall from 1860-1950? Is there evidence of increasing heatwaves andfloods up until 1950? Is there any evidence of cyclical weather patterns? At which time period (under what weatherconditions) was agriculture relatively stable? Which regions have seen the greatest change in crop-type? Is this due toclimate conditions or other factors? (hybrid seeds, use of nitrogen based fertilizer etc.)Alongside the dataset, I will write the life histories of two farmers to tell a story around climate change, adaptationand economic precarity over the life-course of farmers in the Cauvery delta. The chosen farmers are Octogenarians,inhabiting different parts of the Cauvery delta. I will record their life stories from the perspective of changingclimate, how they have adapted and the challenges they have faced. The questions asked will pertain to temperaturerise or decline, water quality and availability, change in crops sown, changing levels of silt deposits, coastal erosionand how these have affected social relations, and findings curated accordingly (Adamson, Hannaford, and Rohland 2018; Singh 2019).