Explaining non-state armed groups perpetration of mass atrocity crimes

自2010年以来，世界各地的暴力冲突“急剧复苏”（联合国，2018年，第5页）。作为这一趋势的一部分，大规模暴行罪，如种族灭绝罪、战争罪、危害人类罪和种族清洗（GWCE），已成为“新常态”（人权观察2018）。在撰写本文时，全球保护责任中心（GCR2P）确定了7个“目前”正在经历GWCE的国家，3个“迫在眉睫的风险”，7个“严重关注”，13个正在“监测”，因为它们在最近经历过GWCE（2019年全球保护责任中心）。这些危机导致数百万人丧生，数万人被强奸，并加剧了前所未有的难民危机。尽管大规模暴力并不是一个新现象，但基地组织、伊斯兰国、博科圣地、圣主抵抗军和青年党等非国家武装组织在犯下暴行罪行方面发挥着越来越重要的作用，导致关键政策制定者呼吁对这一特定威胁进行紧急研究（见支持案例）。针对这一新的现实，该项目回答了以下主要研究问题：非国家武装团体在什么条件下实施全球妇女暴力？这笔资金将使我们能够开发世界上第一个数据集，收集非国家武装团体实施全球暴力行为的系统证据，我们称之为“非国家大规模暴行的相关因素”（CONMA）。为此，我们将分析六个国家和三个主题。前者指中非共和国、刚果民主共和国、伊拉克、尼日利亚、叙利亚和索马里。后者侧重于i)相互作用，例如，非国家武装团体本身、其他行为者（如政府）和外部行为者（如联合国维和人员）之间的相互作用；ii)当地因素，例如，地理、经济、人口密度以及自然资源；iii)群体特征，例如年龄、意识形态和外部支持。科学影响的发展分为三个阶段。首先，独特的数据集“CONMA”将提供必要的信息来进行统计分析，以解释我们所选的六个国家发生大规模暴行的原因、时间和地点。其次，我们将根据我们的三个主题提出假设，这些假设可以通过未来的学术调查进行检验。第三，该项目旨在推动对非国家武装团体实施大规模暴力的原因进行定量研究。知识的进步将使我们能够提供政策建议，以改善国际、区域和国家预防大规模暴行的战略，特别关注联合国（UN）、欧盟（EU）、英国（UK）和非洲（四个案例研究的政府和组织，如非洲联盟）的政策制定者。我们将与三个项目合作伙伴合作：GCR2P（纽约和日内瓦）、Aegis Trust（基加利）和Protection Approaches（伦敦），以及由Alex Bellamy、Gyorgy tatatar、Ivan Simonovic、Karen E. Smith和Kristian Skrede Gleditsch组成的咨询委员会。作为我们影响战略的一部分，我们将在伦敦、纽约和基加利举办项目结束研讨会。产出将包括i)公开可用的数据集和代码本，ii)在高级期刊上发表的六篇文章，iii)联合国防止种族灭绝办公室和RtoP的分析框架，iv)与每个项目合作伙伴共同编写政策报告，重点关注联合国、英国、欧盟和非洲的大规模暴行预防战略，v)博客文章，vi)信息图表，以及vii)在会议和政策导向会议上的演讲。

Since 2010, there has been a 'dramatic resurgence' of violent conflict around the world (United Nations, 2018, p. v). As part of this trend, mass atrocity crimes, defined as genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing (GWCE), have become 'the new normal' (Human Rights Watch 2018). At this time of writing, the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (GCR2P) identifies seven countries that are 'currently' experiencing GWCE, three at 'imminent risk', seven of 'serious concern', and thirteen being 'monitored' because they have experienced GWCE in the recent past (Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect 2019). These crises have seen millions of people killed, tens of thousands raped, and underpin an unprecedented refugee crisis. Although mass violence is not a new phenomenon, non-state armed groups such as Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Boko Haram, Lord's Resistance Army, and Al-Shabaab are increasingly playing a critical role in the perpetration of atrocity crimes leading to key policymakers calling for urgent research on this specific threat (see case for support). Responding to this new reality, the project answers the following primary research question: under what conditions do non-state armed groups perpetrate GWCE? The funding will enable us to develop the first dataset in the world that collects systematic evidence on non-state armed groups perpetrating GWCE, which we call 'correlates of non-state mass atrocities' (CONMA). To do this, we will analyse six countries and three themes. The former refers to the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, Nigeria, Syria and Somalia. The latter focuses on i) interactions, for example, between the non-state armed group[s] themselves, other actors such as the government, and external actors such as UN peacekeepers, ii) local factors, for instance, geography, economics, population density, as well as natural resources, and iii) group characteristics, such as age, ideology, and external support. The scientific impact develops in three stages. First, the unique dataset 'CONMA' will provide the necessary information to run statistical analysis to explain why, when, and where mass atrocities happen in our six chosen countries. Second, we will develop hypothesis based on our three themes that can be tested through future academic inquiry. Third, the project seeks to drive forward quantitative research into the causes of non-state armed groups perpetrating mass violence. This advance in knowledge will allow us to provide policy recommendations in order to improve international, regional, and national strategies toward mass atrocity prevention with a specific focus on policymakers in the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and Africa (the four case study governments and organisations such as the African Union). We will work with three project partners, GCR2P (New York and Geneva), Aegis Trust (Kigali), and Protection Approaches (London), as well as an advisory board consisting of Alex Bellamy, Gyorgy Tatar, Ivan Simonovic, Karen E. Smith, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. As part of our impact strategy, we will hold end of project workshops in London, New York, and Kigali. Outputs will include i) publicly available dataset and codebook, ii) six articles in high ranking journals, iii) an Analysis Framework for the United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the RtoP, iv) co-created policy reports with each project partner focusing on the UN, the UK, the EU, and African mass atrocity prevention strategies, v) blogposts, vi) infographics, and vii) presentations at conferences and policy-orientated meetings.