COVID-19: Measuring the effects of Covid-19 on businesses and the UK economy

该提案由诺丁汉大学在经济统计卓越中心（ESCoE）的框架下协调，与英格兰银行和国家统计局合作，提供有关Covid-19对不同规模、行业和地区企业影响的即时数据收集和研究分析。这些实时信息对于英国封锁安排的持续时间和管理决策以及从Covid-19事件中恢复期间的企业绩效至关重要。2019冠状病毒病预计将导致英国经济活动出现300年来最大的收缩（预算责任办公室（Office for Budget Responsibility）的数据显示，到2020年第二季度，实际GDP将下降35%，失业率将上升200万）。对供应链和需求的影响已经对全球经济产生了前所未有的深刻影响。英国财政部（HM Treasury）和英国央行（Bank of England）已推出大规模计划，支持企业，作为短期内减少失业和破产的桥梁。还需要做出更多艰难的决定。我们将为政策决策和新的研究提供即时的商业数据，以便在应对Covid-19的医疗成本和经济成本之间取得平衡。我们将从生计（产出、投资和就业）方面对成本进行评估，以便政策制定者掌握数据，就何时允许经济恢复正常做出判断。我们的意见对于政府理解这些决定对未来18个月英国经济的影响至关重要。

This proposal, coordinated by the University of Nottingham under the umbrella of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE), offers immediate data collection and research analysis about the impact of Covid-19 on businesses of different sizes, sectors and regions in collaboration with the Bank of England and Office for National Statistics. This real-time information is critical to decision making about the duration and management of the lockdown arrangements in the UK and business performance during the recovery from the Covid-19 episode. Covid-19 is expected to create the largest contraction in UK economic activity in 300 years (real GDP down by 35%, unemployment up by 2 million in 2020Q2, Office for Budget Responsibility). The impacts on supply chains and demand are already affecting economies across the globe more deeply than ever experienced in living memory. HM Treasury and the Bank of England have launched large-scale programmes to support businesses as a bridge in the short-term to reduce unemployment and bankruptcy. Many more tough decisions will be required.We will provide immediate business data for policy decisions and new research so that a balance can be struck between dealing with the medical and the economic costs of Covid-19. We will provide assessments of the costs in terms livelihoods - output, investment and jobs - so that policymakers have the data to form judgements about when to allow the economy to return to normality. Our inputs will be vital for government to understand the implications of these decisions on the UK economy over the next 18 months.