Going Global? Firms, Trade and Productivity After Brexit

英国脱欧是至少一代人以来英国对外关系的最大变化。退出欧盟将导致英国和欧盟之间引入新的贸易壁垒，同时也为英国制定自己独立的贸易政策创造机会。该项目研究英国脱欧对英国贸易和经济表现的影响。该分析将考虑英国经济如何应对英国退欧，并将提供英国退欧对生产率、贸易、产出、工资和生活水平影响的估计。这项研究的一个关键贡献将是创建一个新的数据集，在企业层面匹配贸易和生产数据。利用这个数据集，该项目将分析哪些公司、工人、地区和行业最容易受到英国退欧的影响，英国退欧如何影响企业对全球经济的参与，“新冠肺炎”是否会改变企业对英国退欧的反应，以及贸易的变化如何影响企业的业绩和生产率。该项目还将开发英国经济的贸易模型，以量化英国退欧的总体经济后果，并评估英国退欧后的替代贸易政策。该项目的发现将帮助政策制定者和普通公众了解英国退欧的经济后果，并将为英国退欧后有关英国贸易和经济政策的辩论提供信息。例如，该项目将揭示与欧盟和其他合作伙伴达成替代贸易协定的成本和好处；哪些类型的贸易壁垒对英国公司最重要；以及英国退欧的影响在工人、公司、地区和行业之间有何不同。

Brexit is the biggest change to the UK's external relations for at least a generation. Leaving the EU will lead to the introduction of new barriers to trade between the UK and the EU, while also creating opportunities for the UK to develop its own independent trade policy. This project studies the impact of Brexit on the UK's trade and economic performance. The analysis will consider how the UK economy is changing in response to Brexit and will provide estimates of the effect of Brexit on productivity, trade, output, wages and living standards.A key contribution of the research will be the creation of a new dataset matching trade and production data at the firm level. Using this dataset, the project will analyse which firms, workers, regions and industries are most exposed to Brexit, how Brexit affects firms' participation in the global economy, whether COVID-19 alters how firms respond to Brexit and how changes in trade impact firm performance and productivity. The project will also develop a trade model of the UK economy to quantify the aggregate economic consequences of Brexit and evaluate alternative post-Brexit trade policies. The project's findings will help policy makers and the general public understand the economic consequences of Brexit and will inform debate on UK trade and economic policy after Brexit. For example, the project will shed light on the costs and benefits of alternative trade agreements with the EU and other partners; what types of trade barriers are most important for UK firms, and; how the effects of Brexit differ across workers, firms, regions and industries.