Assessing financial vulnerability and risk in the UK's charities during and beyond the COVID-19 crisis

公众对COVID-19对英国志愿组织的经济后果的影响表示严重担忧。封锁导致涉及面对面接触的创收活动停止；这将带来更长期的影响，具体取决于危机后衰退的规模和持续时间。在不同使命和规模的组织之间，以及在不同社区之间，影响将是高度不同的。如果要做出明智的决定，中央和国家政府、资助者、志愿组织基础设施机构以及组织本身都需要对这些影响进行分析。当前的需要是为了理解：1。确切地说，哪类资金流面临风险，以及减少或停止资助如何产生不同的影响。2 . 2019冠状病毒病对经济的影响在程度和性质上与以往对志愿部门收入的冲击不同的程度（组织的收入和支出有一个基本的波动程度，但我们预计危机将影响更多的组织）；正在进行的不同影响取决于解除封锁的进度。我们的工作将有助于改善证据基础，利用越来越多的行政和交易数据，提供有关慈善机构风险暴露的可操作信息。这将为经济变化对慈善组织的影响提供更细致的、与政策相关的数据。反过来，这将为干预措施提供更坚实的证据基础，例如为具有战略意义的慈善机构提供有针对性的财政支持。

There are significant public concerns about the impact of the economic consequences of COVID-19 for UK voluntary organisations. The lockdown has caused the cessation of income generation activities involving face-to-face contacts; it will be followed by longer-term impacts depending on the scale and duration of the post-crisis recession. The impact will be highly differentiated, between organisations of different missions and size, and between communities. Central and national government, funders, voluntary organisation infrastructure bodies, and organisations themselves require analysis of these impacts if they are to make informed decisions.The immediate needs are for understandings of: 1. exactly what sorts of funding streams are at risk, and how the reduction or cessation of that funding has differentiated impacts2. the extent to which the economic impacts of COVID-19 will differ in magnitude and character from previous shocks to voluntary sector income (there is a baseline degree of fluctuation in organisations incomes and expenditures, but we anticipate the crisis will affect far more organisations);3. ongoing differential impacts depending on the progress of moving out from lockdown.Our work will contribute to an improved evidence base, providing actionable information on the exposure to risk of charities, drawing on a growing volume of administrative and transactional data. This will provide more granular, policy-relevant data on the impacts of economic change on charitable organisations. In turn this will provide a firmer evidential basis for interventions such as targeted financial support for strategically-significant charities.