The Real-Time Economic Effects of Covid-19 in the United Kingdom

该项目将研究Covid大流行和封锁对英国企业的微观经济影响，以及它与英国决定脱离欧盟的互动。该项目将提供两项关键成果，这两项成果对于设计和监测适当的政策以减轻Covid的负面经济影响至关重要。第一个关键输出将是提供Covid对英国企业的影响以及他们对未来几个月商业和就业结果的预期的实时月度摘要。这将使用商业工业联合会(CBI)进行的公司层面调查的机密信息，这些信息是通过CBI和经济表现中心之间的特别协议提供给我们的。这些数据在提供有关当前趋势和预期的丰富、实时、公司级别的信息方面是独一无二的。接受调查的公司覆盖了广泛的行业和地区，我们之前的工作表明，它们能够提供具有全国代表性的经济分析。该项目的第二个关键输出是用来自国家统计局和公司账户的公司和行业特征补充CBI调查数据，将检查企业受到Covid影响的渠道，如需求、供应链和金融，以及这些影响和英国退欧影响之间的相互作用(如果有的话)。该项目将按公司规模、行业和地区确定影响的异质性，以及随着经济复苏和英国退出欧盟商业活动的演变。这些细致入微的发现将有助于设计详细的政策回应。

This project will examine the microeconomic impacts of the Covid pandemic and lockdown on UK businesses and its interaction with the UK's decision to leave the European Union. The project will deliver two key outputs, which are fundamental to designing and monitoring appropriate policies to mitigate the negative economic impacts of Covid. A first key output will be to provide real-time monthly summaries of the impacts of Covid on UK businesses and their expectations of business and employment outcomes for the coming months. This will use confidential information from firm-level surveys conducted by the Confederation of Business Industry (CBI), made available to us through a special agreement between CBI and the Centre for Economic Performance. The data are unique in providing rich, real-time, firm-level information on current trends and expectations. The surveyed firms have a broad coverage of sectors and regions and our previous work shows that they can deliver nationally representative economic analysis. Supplementing CBI survey data with firm and industry characteristics from ONS and company accounts, a second key output of the project will examine the channels through which businesses are being affected by Covid, such as demand, supply chains, and finance, and the interaction (if any) between these impacts and the effects of Brexit. The project will identify the heterogeneity of impacts by firm-size, sector, and region, and the evolution of business activity as the economy recovers and the UK leaves the EU. The granular findings will help design detailed policy responses.