Rescuing a `Sick' Labour Market: Using Online Vacancy Data to Track COVID-19's Economic Impact.

新型冠状病毒感染症（COVID-19）疫情的爆发，有可能导致世界经济陷入大萧条以来最严重的衰退。数以百万计的人已经失去了工作，劳动力市场的运作受到社会距离措施的严重干扰。在这方面，量化这一大流行病对创造就业的影响至关重要。该项目将使用一套独特的每日在线招聘信息数据来回答关键问题：在大流行期间，哪些公司和部门在扩张或收缩？哪些工作是需要的？这些工作需要哪些技能和任务，工作活动是如何交付的？随着封锁措施的放松，创造就业的动力将以多快的速度变化？为了回答这些问题，我们的项目将采用多种计量经济学技术进行明确的分析。首先，我们将对不同职业、部门和地区创造就业机会的演变进行详细的描述性分析，以提供有关大流行的经济后果的基本见解，包括跨地区和不同工作类型的关键分配影响。其次，我们将利用先进的文本分析技术来研究招聘广告的措辞，以揭示新冠肺炎冲击是否以及如何导致工作结构发生变化。鉴于2019冠状病毒病造成的经济中断的严重程度，我们可能会看到工作活动的设计和与不同工作相关的薪酬模式出现持续的结构性变化。我们将使用的细粒度和高频率数据将使我们能够全面评估这些变化的发生和重要性。最后，我们计划确定在确保企业生产连续性和劳动力需求弹性方面发挥关键作用的企业层面特征。除其他因素外，自动化工作的程度可能对确保企业在封锁限制下的生产连续性至关重要。例如，与远程工作兼容的机器人组装产品组件或生产过程可能使企业在采取社交距离措施时保持更活跃。再加上对所需技能的详细分析，该研究将为设计和推出有针对性的干预措施提供必要的投入，以支持受影响最严重的地区、就业和行业。这些投入也将有助于为技能培训项目和政府援助的长期投资决策提供信息。

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic is likely to cause the worst recession the world economy has experienced since the Great Depression. Millions of people have already lost their jobs, and the functioning of the labour market has been profoundly disrupted by social distancing measures. In this context, it is fundamental to quantify the impact of the pandemic on job creation. This project will use a unique data set of daily online job postings to provide answers to key questions: which firms and sectors are expanding or contracting during the pandemic? Which jobs are being demanded? What skills and tasks are required in these jobs and how are work activities being delivered? How fast will the dynamics of job creation change as lockdown measures are eased? To answer these questions, our project will carry out an articulated analysis, employing multiple econometric techniques. Firstly, we will provide a detailed descriptive analysis on the evolution of job creation across occupations, sectors, and regions in order to deliver essential insights on the economic consequences of the pandemic, including the crucial distributive impacts across regions and types of jobs.Second, we will make use of advanced techniques in text analysis to study the wording of job postings in order to shed light on whether and how the structure of jobs changes as a result of the COVID-19 shock. In light of the intensity of the COVID-19 induced economic disruption, we may expect to see persistent structural changes to the design of work activities and the remuneration patterns associated with different jobs. The granular and high frequency data that we will employ will allow us to comprehensively assess the occurrence and importance of such changes.Finally, we plan to identify the firm-level characteristics that play a crucial role in ensuring firms' production continuity, and labour demand resilience. Among other factors, the degree of automated work may be crucial to ensure firms' production continuity under lockdown restrictions. For example, robots assembling product components or production processes that are compatible with remote work may allow firms to remain more active while social distancing measures are in place. Coupled with a detailed analysis on the skills demanded, the study will be provide essential inputs for the design and roll-out of targeted interventions that support the most severely affected areas, jobs and industries. These inputs will also be useful for the informing longer run investment decisions on skill training programs and government assistance.