SBE-UKRI: Business Cycles, Uncertain Growth and the Distribution of Production

年轻的公司历来在创造就业方面占有很大份额，其中最成功的公司在所有公司中增长率最高，是提高生产力的创新的主要来源。因此，2007年以来的分布变化使新成立的公司数量大大减少，规模较小，增长缓慢，可能会对经济造成持久的损害。我们提出的环境具有必要的异质性，可以研究这些变化、投资不足和总生产率放缓之间的相互作用。我们将确保我们的模型重现战后的总收入，同时预测公司分布与美国公司分布有意义地相似，并允许自上次经济衰退以来美国企业之间的分布变化的可能性。解决随机动态一般均衡中存在的冲击，全要素生产率增长和增长的不确定性，在我们的设置与不可分离的效用，需要一个推广的数值方法超越现有的异质性企业的研究。我们的新方法将引起该领域研究人员的普遍兴趣，扩大微观到宏观研究的领域。

Young firms historically have had a large share in job creation, and the most successful among them have the highest growth rates of all firms and are a major source of productivity-enhancing innovation. Distributional shifts since 2007 featuring substantially fewer, smaller and slower-growing young firms thus may threaten lasting economic damage. Our proposed environment has the necessary heterogeneity to study the interplay between these changes, anemic investment and the aggregate productivity slowdown. We will ensure that our model reproduces post-war aggregate regularities while predicting a distribution of firms that meaningfully resembles the U.S. firm distribution and allowing a possibility of distributional changes like those among U.S. businesses since the last recession. Solving for stochastic dynamic general equilibrium in the presence of shocks to TFP growth and growth uncertainty in our setting with non-separable utility requires a generalization of numerical methods beyond existing heterogeneous firm studies. Our new method will be of general interest to researchers working in the area, expanding the realm of micro-to-macro research.