RESEARCH IN BIOSTATISTICAL METHODOLOGY AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING

该项目的目的是发展生物统计学 适用于分析的方法和数学模型 与癌症控制有关的流行病学和实验研究 和预防 许多正在研究的统计问题 在本项目下， 科。 过去一年的活动主要针对 开发一种方法来减少罗伯逊固有的偏见- 年龄-周期不可识别性问题的波义耳解 队列Poisson回归分析; GLIM的开发 回归方法，允许对治疗进行无偏估计 一项随机试验中的效应，涉及用以下指标测量的协变量： 简单Goldie-Coldman肿瘤细胞模型的推广 对化疗的抵抗，包括免疫刺激和时间- 不同的出生、死亡和细胞突变; 计算机程序来统计分析不平衡的重复- 措施研究。 该项目还包括研究开发和使用 癌症发生的数学模型来分析癌症研究， 预测干预策略的结果;阿米蒂奇- 娃娃模型被用来研究时间模式的影响， 致癌暴露对它们联合作用的推论; Moolgavkar-Knudson两阶段模型被用来量化 女性第一次足月妊娠的假设影响 她未来患乳腺癌的风险

The purpose of this project is development of biostatistical methods and mathematical models appropriate for the analysis of epidemiologic and experimental studies related to cancer control and prevention. Many of the statistical problems being studied under this project are derived from the consultation activities of the Section. Activities during the past year have been directed toward developing a method to reduce the bias inherent in the Robertson- Boyle solution to the nonidentifiability problem in age-period- cohort Poisson regression analysis; development of a GLIM regression method to allow unbiased estimation of the treatment effect in a randomized trial involving covariates measured with error; extension of the simple Goldie-Coldman model of tumor cell resistance to chemotherapy to include immunostimulation and time- varying birth, death, and cellular mutation; development of a computer program to statistically analyze unbalanced repeated- measures studies. This project also includes research on the development and use of mathematical models of carcinogenesis to analyze cancer studies and to predict the results of intervention strategies; the Armitage- Doll model is being used to study the effect of time patterns of carcinogenic exposure on inferences regarding their joint action; the Moolgavkar-Knudson two-stage model is being used to quantify the hypothesized effects of a woman's first full-term pregnancy upon her future breast cancer risk.