Aftershocks: Identity, immigration and political change after Brexit

脱欧公投以及随后漫长的、两极分化的英国退欧谈判引发的混乱继续在英国政治体系中产生反响，通过动员新的人口和身份分歧来加速政治变革。该奖学金的中心目标是通过三个研究项目调查这一广泛主题的不同方面，开发、分析和传播关于这些英国退欧余震的前沿研究。这些项目如下：(1)脱欧后的英国退欧：人口变化如何继续推动政治变化这个项目将利用新的数据资源来加深对重塑英国政治的新人口分化的理解。它有三条线索：(1)分析过去十年选民层面的人口和政治变化，使用新获得的人口普查数据(2)分析调查数据，以检查2019-2024年议会身份分歧的演变(3)一项新的调查，通过随机实验测试解释新身份分歧动员的机制。联合编写的一份报告将于2023年9月发布，恰逢议会(可能)最后一个政党会议季节。(2)更热情的欢迎？在A8扩容20年后，身份政治、自由动员和对移民的公众舆论这个项目将加深我们对移民态度的了解，特别是推动移民态度“自由转向”的机制。它有三条线索：(1)检查20年来移民对公众观点的演变和政治影响(2)在NatCen混合模式小组上新的移民态度问题模块(3)第二次调查，包括一系列随机实验，以调查推动移民态度变化的机制。联合制作的一份报告将于2024年3月发布，以配合A8扩大20周年。(3)新黎明还是虚假黎明？身份政治在2024年大选中的作用下届大选将是自英国退出协议实施以来的首次斗争，很可能会有一个非常不同的问题议程。第三个项目将评估身份划分在这一新背景下的作用。它有三条线索：(1)利用选民和调查数据，在总体和个人层面上分析2024年选举的人口变化和身份分歧。(2)精英访谈，分析政党精英如何理解身份分歧在竞选活动中的作用，以及他们采取的应对策略。(3)一项调查研究，采用随机实验，严格测试精英线索和信息对动员或中和身份分歧的影响。联合编写的一份报告将于2025年春季，即选举一周年之前发布。所有奖学金研究活动都将是协作性的，并将吸引学院以外的广泛受众。每一份报告都将包括与相关利益攸关方组织共同编写的一份重要报告，以及与英国ICE中心协调组织的发布会、传播和通信包。除了这些重要的报告和活动外，我还将开展一项密集的沟通和参与活动，以促进UKICE中心促进严谨、高质量的独立社会科学的目标。我将每月制作一个“民调观察站”博客，分析民调和民意，并将通过Hub Outlet发布。我将定期向UKICE中心提供各种形式的贡献-简报、评论、博客、视频、播客、社交媒体等--既包括我的研究项目，也包括更广泛的兴趣和专业领域。我将定期参加UKICE会议、简报会、圆桌会议和小组讨论，并将利用我广泛的公众形象、媒体经验和专业网络在整个奖学金计划中促进中心的工作和活动。

The disruptions set in train by the EU referendum and the long, polarising Brexit negotiation which followed continue to reverberate through the British political system, accelerating political change through the mobilisation of new demographic and identity divides. The central goal of this fellowship is to develop, analyse and disseminate cutting edge research on these Brexit aftershocks, through three research projects investigating different aspects of this broad theme. These projects are as follows: (1) Brexitland after Brexit: how demographic change continues to fuel political change This project will utilise new data resources to deepen understanding of the new demographic divides reshaping British politics. It has three strands: (1) Analysis of constituency level demographic and political change over the past decade, using newly available census data (2) Analysis of survey data to examine the evolution of identity divides over the 2019-2024 Parliament (3) A new survey with randomised experiments to test mechanisms explaining the mobilisation of new identity divides. A co-produced report will be published in September 2023, coinciding with the (probable) last party conference season of the Parliament. (2) Warmer welcomes? Identity politics, liberal mobilisation and public opinion on immigration two decades after the A8 enlargement This project will deepen our knowledge of attitudes to immigration, and in particular the mechanisms driving the 'liberal turn' in migration attitudes. It has three strands: (1) examination of evolving public views and political impacts from immigration over two decades (2) A new module of immigration attitudes questions on the NatCen mixed mode panel (3) A second survey with a series of randomised experiments to investigate the mechanisms driving changes in migration attitudes. A co-produced report will be published in March 2024, to coincide with the 20th anniversary of the A8 enlargement. (3) New dawn or false dawn? The role of identity politics in the 2024 general election The next general election will be the first fought since the implementation of the UK's Withdrawal Agreement and is likely to feature a very different issue agenda. The third project will assess the role of identity divides in this new context. It has three strands: (1) Analysis of demographic change and identity divides in the 2024 election at the aggregate and individual level using constituency and survey data. (2) Elite interviewing to analyse how party elites understood the role of identity divides in the election campaign, and the strategies they employed to respond. (3) A survey study with randomised experiments to rigorously test the impact of elite cues and messages to mobilise or neutralise identity divides. A co-produced report will be published in Spring 2025, ahead of the first anniversary of the election. All the fellowship research activities will be collaborative and will engage broad audiences beyond the academy. Each will feature a major report co-produced with a relevant stakeholder organisation, with launch event, dissemination and communications packages organised in co-ordination with the UKICE hub. Alongside these major reports and events, I will undertake an intensive program of communication and engagement activity to contribute to the UKICE Hub goal of promoting rigorous, high quality independent social science. I will produce a monthly "Polling Observatory" blog analysing polling and public opinion, to be published via Hub outlets. I will make regular contributions to the UKICE Hub across formats - briefings, commentaries, blogs, videos, podcasts, social media etc - on both my research projects and on broader areas of interest and expertise. I will participate regularly in UKICE conferences, briefings, roundtables and panel discussions, and I will use my extensive public profile, media experience and professional networks to promote Hub work and activity throughout the fellowship.