Decision Maker Panel

该提案借鉴了诺丁汉大学和斯坦福大学为更好地了解英国企业所面临的状况而开展的工作，这两所大学于2016年与英格兰银行（Bank）合作建立了决策者小组（Decision Maker Panel，简称December Panel）。这是由ESRC通过2017 - 2022年的标准赠款资助的，它在HM政府内部被认为是必不可少的数据基础设施。迄今为止，在经济、地缘政治和社会发生巨大变化的时期，我们对更好地了解英国脱欧、新冠肺炎和乌克兰战争的影响至关重要，为政府最高层的政策制定者提供了可操作的见解。自2016年以来，它提供了以政策为重点的研究，这是英格兰银行，英国财政部，唐宁街10号和内阁办公室，国家统计局（ONS）和预算责任办公室（OBR）的重要资源。它获得了2021年ESRC庆祝影响力奖（二等奖），被国家副统计师描述为“商业调查的游戏规则改变者”，并被REF 2021描述为“世界领先”的4* 影响力案例研究。保持对高级企业管理人员进行大规模、有代表性的调查，并解决经济中断的影响和长期影响的能力，使其成为政策的重要基础设施。它保留了一个问题库，提供有关业务状况、预期和不确定性的纵向量化信息，并可灵活地调整调查问题以适应新出现的情况，例如在新冠肺炎期间。数据库已经发展成为一种战略数据资产，我们已经使核心数据库团队以外的研究人员可以访问它。在本提案中，我们将i）从业务中的关键决策者那里收集数据; ii）提供交付计划，以分析数据，获得可操作的见解; iii）将数据提供给其他研究人员。我们将建设调查数据收集和分析能力，以维持和扩大经济和社会影响。该赠款将支持正在进行的数据收集，使其成为：>英国最大的商业调查之一，通过最大限度地减少自然减员和不断招募新公司来维持。通过每月发送给所有参与者的信件和网站www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk，为企业，记者和学者提供定期信息来源>英格兰银行政策委员会（MPC，FPC），HM Treasury，BEIS和OBR的重要投入，借鉴了可持续发展研究分析，以支持政策的行动和沟通我们进行的研究将解决六个重要问题：1.英国脱欧对英国企业的就业、投资、研发、生产率增长、贸易、价格和工资有何影响？2. COVID大流行对企业有哪些不确定性影响？3.企业将如何应对通胀的卷土重来？4.在几个预算和财政报表中宣布的投资增长政策将如何激励英国公司？5.气候变化将对企业投资和风险敞口产生什么影响？6. CEO领导力对绩效有什么影响？我们利用经验丰富的国际研究人员团队，他们已经创建了“世界领先”的调查，以解决自2016年以来与英格兰银行，HM政府和国家统计局合作的类似政策相关研究。借鉴来自诺丁汉和斯坦福大学的资深学者，我们通过在五大经济学期刊上发表学术论文，博客，播客和媒体输出，为政策制定的影响，为学者和研究用户提供好处。我们将创建一个可公开访问的数据集，并通过培训一批新的早期职业研究人员来建立调查设计和分析能力，为他们提供借调和职业发展的机会。

The proposal draws on work to better understand conditions facing British businesses by the universities of Nottingham and Stanford, who established the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) in partnership with the Bank of England (Bank) in 2016. This was funded by the ESRC through standard grants from 2017 - 2022 and it is recognized within HM Government as essential data infrastructure. To date, DMP has been essential to gaining a better understanding of the effects of Brexit, Covid and the Ukraine war during a period of enormous economic, geo-political and social change, delivering actionable insights for policymakers at the highest levels of government. It has delivered policy-focused research that is an essential resource for the Bank of England, HM Treasury, 10 Downing St and the Cabinet Office, Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) since 2016. It has received the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize (second prize) 2021, it was described by the Deputy National Statistician as 'a game changer for business surveys', and 'world leading' 4* impact case study by REF2021. The ability to maintain a large, representative survey of senior business executives and to address the impacts and longer term effects of economic disruptions has made it vital infrastructure for policy. It maintains a corpus of questions that provide longitudinal quantitative information on business conditions, expectations and uncertainty and has the flexibility to adapt survey questions to new conditions as they emerge e.g. during Covid. The DMP has developed into a strategic data asset that we have made accessible to researchers beyond the core DMP team. In this proposal we will i) gather data from key decision makers in business; ii) provide a delivery plan to analyze the data for actionable insights; and iii) make the data available to other researchers. We will build capacity in survey data collection and analysis that sustains and expands economic and societal impact. The grant will support ongoing data collection of DMP data making it:> One of the largest business surveys in the UK, which is maintained by minimizing attrition and continuously recruiting new firms.> A regular source of information to businesses, journalists and academics through monthly letters sent to all the participants and the website www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk> An essential input to Bank of England Policy Committees (MPC, FPC), HM Treasury, BEIS and OBR drawing on DMP research analysis to support the actions and communication of policyThe research we undertake will address six vital questions:1. What are the effects of Brexit on employment, investment, R&D, productivity growth, trade, prices, and wages of UK firms?2. What are the uncertainty impacts of the COVID pandemic on firms?3. How will firms respond to the resurgence of inflation? 4. How will investment growth policies announced in several Budgets and fiscal statements incentivize UK firms? 5. What effects will climate change make to firm investment and risk exposure?6. What effect does CEO leadership have on performance? We draw on a highly-experienced established team of international researchers that have created a 'world-leading' survey to address We draw on a highly-experienced established team of international researchers that have created 'world-leading' surveys to address similar policy related research since 2016 in collaboration with the Bank of England, HM Government and the Office for National Statistics. Drawing on senior academics from Nottingham and Stanford we offer benefits to academics and users of the research through academic papers in top five economics journals, blogs, podcasts and media outputs, impact for policy making. We will create a publicly accessible dataset and build capacity in survey design and analysis by training a new cohort of early career researchers, giving them opportunities for secondment and career advancement.