RESEARCH IN BIOSTATISTICAL METHODOLOGY AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING

本项目的目的是研究和开发生物统计学 适合于分析的方法和数学模型 与癌症控制和预防相关的流行病学研究。这个 本项目下正在研究的统计问题源自 该司其他活动的需要。 这项研究包括数学模型的开发和使用 癌症发生：分析癌症的流行病学研究并帮助 预测不同干预策略的效果。这个 用Armitage-Doll模型对卷烟的影响进行了量化 吸烟在肺癌发展的早期和晚期； 采用Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson(MVK)两阶段模型进行定量化 首次足月妊娠对乳腺癌的两种假设影响 风险；MVK模型正在扩展，以包括两种不同的途径 发展成恶性肿瘤。一种与之相关的数学模型 正在开发致癌模型来预测不同的 恶性肿瘤人群化疗治疗的时间模式 药物敏感和耐药相结合的肿瘤细胞 细胞。 正在进行年龄-时期-队列Poisson回归模型的研究 主要从两个方面进行了研究：(1)采用建模的方法对模型进行分解 肺癌死亡率在历期和出生队列中的趋势 用于预测中国未来肺癌死亡率的进程。 在美国，这些成分与过去的吸烟行为和 香烟的平均焦油含量；及(2)一种解决 不可识别性问题是基于使用 分解5年总人口年龄组的人口统计方法 变成一岁的孩子。一套交互式计算机的研制 可以用来分析癌症趋势的程序也在继续。

The purpose of this project is research and development of biostatistical methods and mathematical models appropriate for the analysis of epidemiologic studies related to cancer control and prevention. The statistical problems being studied under this project are derived from the needs of other activities in the Division. This research includes the development and use of mathematical models of carcinogenesis to analyze epidemiologic studies of cancer and to help predict the effects of different intervention strategies. The Armitage-Doll model has been used to quantify the effect of cigarette smoking upon early and late stages in lung cancer development; the Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (MVK) two stage model is being used to quantify two hypothesized effects of a first full-term pregnancy upon breast cancer risk; the MVK model is being extended to include two different pathways to development of a malignant tumor. A mathematical model related to carcinogenesis models is being developed to predict the effect of different time-patterns of chemotherapy treatment upon a population of malignant tumor cells which is a combination of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant cells. Research on age-period-cohort Poisson regression models is being conducted on two fronts: (1) the modeling approach has been used to disassemble the trend in lung cancer mortality into calendar period and birth cohort components; to predict the future course of lung cancer mortality in the U.S., these components have been related to past smoking behavior and the average tar content of cigarettes; and (2) a solution to the non-identifiability problem is being developed based upon use of demographic methods to decompose 5-year aggregated population age groups into single years of age. Development of a set of interactive computer programs which can be used to analyze cancer trends is also continuing.