An analytical framework for Test, Trace and Isolate in the UK: optimising and targeting deployment alongside other measures.

我们将制定一个强大的分析框架，以指导有关部署测试，跟踪和隔离（TTI）的决策，以控制未来12个月的SARS CoV 2流行。随着英国放松封锁，工作场所、休闲场所和学校重新开放，有必要完善和瞄准TTI，以防止疫情再次呈指数级快速增长。这将需要快速反馈、评估并与实时流行病学、行为和业务数据相结合。我们将建立SARS CoV 2传播和TTI过程的数学模型，以评估如何最有效地改进TTI并与其他控制措施相结合，并制定评估TTI性能的指标。我们会考虑TTI系统的设计和环境因素如何影响人们的行为。我们将回应新出现的问题，但目前优先考虑：1）TTI，筛查和物理距离措施的最佳组合，以减少传播并保护弱势群体; 2）评估行为反应的作用，以采取和坚持TTI政策，包括权衡和如何支持政策的后果; 3）启动加强干预强度的信号; 4）评估我们对传播模式的理解。

We will develop a robust analytical framework to guide decisions about the deployment of Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) to control the SARS CoV2 epidemic over the next 12 months. As the UK eases lockdown and workplaces, leisure venues and schools re-open, refining and targeting TTI is necessary to prevent the return of rapid exponential epidemic growth. This will require quick feedback, assessment and integration with real-time epidemiological, behavioural and operational data. We will develop mathematical models of SARS CoV2 transmission and TTI processes, to assess how TTI could be most effectively refined and targeted in association with other control measures, and to develop metrics to assess TTI performance. We will consider how both the design of the TTI system and environmental factors affect people's behaviour. We will respond to emerging questions but currently prioritise: 1) optimal combinations of TTI, screening and physical distancing measures, both to reduce transmission and to protect vulnerable groups; 2) appraisal of the role of behavioural responses to take up and adhere to TTI policies, including trade-offs and the consequences for how policies are supported; 3) signals to initiate stepped up intervention intensity; 4) assessment of our understanding of transmission patterns.