SALIENT: Science for Adaptation: Learning and Innovation in EvideNce about future climaTe

气候变化对农业、水资源、人类健康和其他方面构成了风险。我们每个人都可能需要适应。计划这种适应需要预测风险的变化，而且对未来气候信息的需求很大。近几十年来，气候模型方面取得了显著进展。可以运行气候模型来模拟未来的温度、降雨量和极端天气。与此同时，还出现了一个新的研究和实践领域，被称为“气候服务”，旨在支持决策者，与他们合作，探索如何使他们的规划能够适应气候变化，通常使用气候模型的数据。气候服务有许多挑战，需要来自许多不同专业领域的投入。其中一个关键挑战是使用气候模型数据来生成关于现实世界的信息。科学家可以分析模拟来描述模拟世界中20世纪50年代的气候，但不可能确切地知道现实世界中会发生什么。这意味着在分析中有一个必要的“步骤”，将模型数据转换为对现实中可能发生的事情的描述。科学家和咨询师有多种方法来做到这一点。他们可能会估计本世纪50年代可能发生的事情。他们可能会估计本世纪50年代最有可能的结果。然后他们需要找到一种方法来将这一点传达给决策者，这通常是使用图表、地图或报表来完成的。分析中的这一“步骤”至关重要，因为它将决定哪些未来的风险被纳入决策。如果做得不好，适应规划可能无法考虑到气候变化风险，有可能导致未来气候变化影响的意外损失和损害。而这一步很难走好！对于如何做到这一点，目前还没有达成共识。气候模型不是探索不确定性的完美工具，很难评估对其输出的信心，并将结果传达给非专业人士。在一些国家，如英国，已经为应对这一挑战的大型项目提供了资金。然而，对它的研究仍然不足，特别是对于可以说最需要这些信息的全球南方地区。这就是“气候未来信息鸿沟”，也是这一基于两个关键创新领域的新型研究计划的重点：1.重新调整气候科学分析的方向，以更好地描述气候变化在区域范围内的影响。气候科学通常是由所使用的模型数据集引领的。这一气候科学计划将受到更好地理解未来可能、看似合理和可能发生的事情的需要的推动。它将涉及对许多不同类型的气候数据集的分析，以及分析不确定性的多种新方法，包括结合基于模型的估计和专家判断。借鉴通信研究的见解和方法，改善有关气候未来的信息。其他领域的心理学家和科学家，例如医学研究，已经通过测试和评估不同信息和方法的方法，在如何沟通风险方面获得了洞察力。这项研究方案将与风险沟通专家合作，设计和测试替代的沟通结果。该方案将首先侧重于南部非洲和区域一级的气候变化信息，这是公务员和非政府组织的专家需要的，以确定适应行动的优先次序。这些利益攸关方将被邀请参与研究，从一开始就为分析提供信息，并共同设计信息通报产出。在南部非洲进行研究之后，将在其他区域和背景下制定和完善一个框架。其雄心是提供一种新型的“气候未来”科学，这是支持适应不断变化的气候所迫切需要的。

Climate change poses risks to agriculture, water resources, human health, and beyond. Each of us will potentially need to adapt. Planning that adaptation requires anticipating changes in risk, and there is great demand for information about future climate.There has been remarkable progress in climate modelling in recent decades. Climate models can be run to simulate future temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather. Meanwhile, a new area of research and practice has also emerged, known as "climate services", designed to support decision-makers, working with them to explore how they can make their planning resilient to climate change, often using data from climate models. Climate services has many challenges and requires input from many different areas of expertise.One key challenge is in using climate model data to generate information about the real world. Scientists can analyse simulations to describe the climate of the 2050s in the modelled worlds, but it is impossible to know with certainty what will happen in the real world. This means that there is a necessary "step" in the analysis, to convert the model data into a description of what could happen in reality. There are multiple ways in which scientists and consultants do this. They might estimate a range of what is possible in the 2050s. They might estimate the most likely outcome for the 2050s. They then need to find a way to communicate this to decision-makers, and this is often done using graphs, maps, or statements.This "step" in the analysis is vitally important because it will determine which future risks are incorporated into decisions. If it is not done well, adaptation planning may fail to take into account climate change risks, potentially leading to unexpected loss and damage from future climate change impacts. And this "step" is very hard to do well! There is no consensus on how to do it. Climate models are imperfect tools for exploring uncertainties, it is very difficult to assess confidence in their outputs and to communicate their results to non-specialists.In some countries, such as the UK, large programmes have been funded which address this challenge. However, it remains understudied, particularly for regions in the Global South which arguably need the information the most. This is the "climate futures information gap" and the focus for this novel research programme which is founded on two key areas of innovation:1. Reorienting climate science analysis to better characterise the influence of climate change on a regional scale. Climate science is often led by the model dataset being used. This programme of climate science will be driven by the need to better understand what is possible, plausible, and probable in future. It will involve analysis of many different kinds of climate datasets, and multiple new approaches to analyse uncertainty, including combining model-based estimates and expert judgements.2. Drawing on insights and methods from communications research to improve information about climate futures. Psychologists and scientists in other fields, for example medical research, have gained insights in how to communicate risk, through methods which test and evaluate different messages and approaches. In collaboration with experts in risk communication, this research programme will design and test alternative communications outputs.The programme will focus first on southern Africa, and regional level climate change information, required by experts in the civil service and non-governmental organisations to prioritise adaptation action. These stakeholders will be invited to participate in the research, to inform the analysis from the outset, and co-design communications outputs. Following the research in southern Africa, a framework will be developed and refined in other regions and contexts. The ambition is to deliver a new kind of "climate futures" science, which is urgently needed to support adaptation to changing climate.