MULTIMODAL urban transport: integrated modelling and simulation towards net-zero, inclusive mobility

国内交通是英国排放量最高的部门，城市拥堵代价高昂(例如，2021年伦敦交通拥堵成本为51亿GB)。大幅降低城市汽车的主导地位是实现英国2050年净零目标的当务之急，但也是在全国范围内创造更公平、更包容、更无障碍的未来城市的无与伦比的机会。英国最近约150亿英镑的投资试图从根本上改变城市交通和交通方式：20亿英镑用于2030年前一半的城市出行骑自行车/步行(例如自行车道、迷你荷兰计划)，57亿英镑用于城市区域可持续交通住区(例如曼彻斯特公共汽车和自行车计划)，70亿英镑用于提升当地公交服务。为了充分实现投资潜力，并发展实现净零、包容性交通的整体采用路径，多式联运必须得到有效的规划、管理和运营，并将人及其差异作为核心考虑因素。这对于一个复杂的系统系统来说是具有挑战性的。在供应方面，交通工具在共享基础设施上争夺有限的道路空间，造成了冲突。在需求方面，在多式联运中，各种模式相辅相成，共同影响消费。例如，自行车道促进了骑自行车，但可能会影响道路速度，加剧拥堵和污染，突显出需要评估人员级别的机动性和系统级别的排放。最近的一项调查报告称，三分之二的残疾人受访者认为骑自行车比步行更容易，这突显了需要考虑广泛的残疾范围和自行车道的潜力，以改善所有人的无障碍设施。因此，与所有多式联运方案一样，全面优化自行车道方案需要集成的方法：充分捕捉多式联运系统的分布式和相互关联的过程，多式联运竞争和互补的复杂性，以及交通和人口的异质性。我的研究将克服这些研究挑战，利用真正集成的方法来模拟和模拟城市多式联运，为交通-人-排放关系开发第一个多尺度数字孪生兄弟，利用交通流理论、基于代理的建模和机器学习，推进和整合我在多式联运方面的冒险研究。这将通过情景测试和优化，通过指导和建议支持实施，为实现净零、包容性流动制定整体采用路径。我将领导一个由3个城市和12个合作伙伴组成的涵盖整个多式联运价值链的强大财团，共同利用数字孪生兄弟来实现英国的战略议程：净零；公平、多样性和包容性(EDI)；以及升级。通过全面增强每个人的移动性，我的联谊会还将推动经济增长的绿色革命，利用净零使命释放新的商业机会，并将英国确立为应对气候变化的数字技术的全球领导者。我将带来强大的积极影响，使净零对人、行业、英国和地球都是净赢的，从而使我和英国都能够成为城市多式联运领域的世界领导者，走在研究和创新的前沿。

Domestic transport is the UK's highest emission sector, and congestion in cities is costly (e.g. London £5.1bn in 2021). Drastically reducing urban car dominance is imperative to reach the UK's 2050 net-zero target, but also an unparalleled opportunity to create more equitable, inclusive and accessible cities of the future across the country. Recent UK investments of approximately £15bn seek to radically transform urban mobility and modality: £2bn for half of urban journeys to be cycled/walked by 2030 (e.g., cycle lanes, mini-Holland schemes), £5.7bn City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements (e.g., Manchester bus and cycle schemes), and £7bn to level up local bus services.To realise full investment potential, and develop holistic adoption pathways towards net-zero, inclusive mobility, multimodal transport must be effectively planned, managed and operated, with people and their differences as a core consideration. This is challenging for a complex system-of-systems. On the supply side, modes compete for limited road space on shared infrastructure, creating conflicts. On the demand side, modes complement each other in intermodal journeys, jointly influencing uptake. For example, cycle lanes promote cycling, but may impact road speeds and exacerbate congestion and pollution, highlighting the need to evaluate person-level mobility and system-level emissions. A recent survey reported two-thirds of disabled respondents finding cycling easier than walking, highlighting the need to consider the broad disability spectrum and the potential for cycle lanes to improve access for all. Therefore, holistically optimising cycle lane schemes, as with all multimodal schemes, requires integrated methodologies: fully capturing multimodal transport systems' distributed and interconnected processes, the complexities of modal competition and complementarity, and the heterogeneity of traffic and population.My research will overcome these research challenges and develop the first multiscale digital twin for the transport-people-emission nexus using a truly integrated approach to model and simulate multimodal urban transport, advancing and coalescing my adventurous research in multimodality, using traffic flow theory, agent-based modelling, and machine learning. This will enable the development of holistic adoption pathways towards net-zero, inclusive mobility through scenario testing and optimisation, with guidance and recommendations to support implementation. Leading a strong consortium of 3 cities and 12 partners, covering the entire multimodal transport value chain, I will collaboratively exploit the digital twin to realise UK strategic agendas: net-zero; Equity, Diversity and Inclusivity (EDI); and levelling-up. By holistically enhancing mobility for everyone, my Fellowship also will propel the Green Revolution for economic growth, leveraging the net-zero mission to unlock new business opportunities, and establish the UK as a global leader in digital technologies to tackle climate change. I will deliver a strong positive impact on making net-zero a net win for people, industry, the UK, and the planet, thereby enabling both me and the UK to become world leaders in multimodal urban transport, at the forefront of research and innovation.