Ensemble Prediction of Inundation Risk and Uncertainty arising from Scour (EPIRUS)

海平面上升现在被认为是对我们沿海城镇的真正威胁。此外，全球气候变化可能导致风暴的频率和严重程度增加。因此，英国面临海上洪水风险的资产价值大幅增加。目前英国沿海的防洪设施，通常是设计用来抵御50-100年一遇的风暴事件，现在可能不足以保护受到威胁的沿海地区。为了改进未来海岸防御的设计，需要更好地了解大气、海洋和海底之间的联系；以及改进了预测中固有不确定性的量化。普利茅斯大学、布里斯托尔大学和利物浦大学之间的这项联合研究计划，旨在开发一个强大而综合的“云到海岸”建模框架，该框架将包括大气、海洋和沿海洪水和侵蚀之间复杂的相互作用，以便能够准确预测和评估极端事件（如严重风暴）对沿海地区洪水风险的影响。该计划将利用现有的各种行之有效的电脑程序，连同所需的进一步发展，提供有关强风暴下的气象情况、相关的风暴潮和海浪情况，以及从近海到靠近海岸线地区的风浪的详细变化，以预测由于浪涌和冲刷而导致的海岸洪水和侵蚀。该项目的主要工作包括：1)整合预测大气压力和风场的大尺度高分辨率天气模式、近海向近岸波浪转化的区域和局地尺度过程模式、海防结构附近波浪冲过和冲刷的局地海岸模式；2)利用广泛的野外数据集验证综合建模系统；3)模拟系统的应用，通过创建未来可能的风暴事件的集合来研究不确定性。该项目的主要成果将是一个完善和有效的模型系统，可作为海岸工程师和海岸地区管理者评估沿海地区可能存在的洪水风险的有用工具。

Sea level rise is now acknowledged as a real threat to our coastal towns and cities. In addition, global climate changes may lead to increasing frequency and severity of storms. As a result the value of the UK's assets at risk from flooding by the sea have significantly increased. The current UK coastal flood defences, which have typically been designed to withstand storm events with a return period of 50-100 years, may now be inadequate to protect the coastal areas under threat. To improve the design of future coastal defences requires a better understanding of the linkages between atmosphere, ocean and seabed; as well as improved quantification of the inherent uncertainties in the predictions. This joint research proposal between the Universities of Plymouth, Bristol and Liverpool, aims to develop a robust and integrated 'Cloud-to-Coast' modelling framework which will include the complex interactions between atmosphere, ocean and coastal flood and erosion, so that the flood risk in the coastal areas from the extreme events, such as severe storms, can be accurately predicted and assessed. The project will use various existing proven computer programmes together with necessary further developments to provide information on meteorological conditions under severe storms, the associated surge and wave conditions, as well as detailed transformation of wind and waves from the offshore to areas close to shoreline in order to predict coastal flood and erosion due to wave overtopping and scour. The main work of the project includes: 1) integration of the large-scale high-resolution weather models for predicting the atmospheric pressure and wind field, the regional and local scale process models for wave transformation from offshore to nearshore, and the local coastal models for predicting wave overtopping and scour near the coastal defence structures; 2) validation of the integrated modelling system with extensive field datasets; and 3) application of the modelling system to investigate uncertainties by creating ensembles of possible future storm events. The major output of the project will be a well-developed and validated modelling system which can be used as a useful tool for coastal engineers and coastal zone managers to assess the possible flood risk in coastal areas.