Detecting and classifying bifurcations in the climate system

我们建议发展一种研究地球系统分岔和转变的一般方法，特别关注全球气候变化。由于气候系统的状态可以用分析势来描述，我们提出了一项研究，其中势将从观测到的气候变量记录中估计出来。了解了气候系统（温度、海平面等）的潜在趋势和最近观测到的趋势，我们计划进行计算机模拟并评估气候潜力所经历的变化。我们将应用分岔理论来研究势的演化及其极值的可能分岔。这样就可以对时间序列进行预估，并与IPCC第四次评估报告提供的预估进行比较。一旦该方法最终开发出来，将在模拟动力学的人工数据上进行测试，然后应用于现有的古、历史和实时观测数据。

We propose to develop a general method for studying bifurcations and transitions of the Earth system, with particular focus on global climate change. As the states of the climate system can be described by analytic potential, we propose a study in which the potential would be estimated from an observed record of a climate variable. Knowing the potential and recently observed trends in the climate system (in temperature, sea level, etc.), we plan to perform computer simulations and evaluate the changes the climate potentials undergo. We will apply the bifurcation theory to study the evolution of the potential and possible bifurcations of its extremals. This will allow to make projections of time series which will be compared with projections provided by IPCC AR4. Once the method finally developed, it will be tested on artificial data with simulated dynamics, and then applied on available paleo-, historical and real-time observed data.