Catchment change network (CCN): A professional development platform for decision-making for adaptation and uncertain environmental change

建议建立一个流域变化网络，使NERC研究基地与其科学用户社区之间能够交流知识、人员、技能和专门知识。最初的重点将是了解和管理与水资源短缺、洪水风险和扩散污染管理有关的不确定性和风险。然而，该网络将发展到考虑其他主题，并在NERC投资的生命周期之后自我维持。NERC寻求资金的初步活动将采取三个互补重点领域的形式，重点领域小组由两名主要研究人员和两名核心科学用户组成，旨在以有利于更广泛的科学用户的形式交流NERC知识。这些活动将包括为工业界和私营部门举办讲习班和培训，出版代表良好做法指南的重点特别出版物，以及由重点领域工作队举办的年度会议。该网络将得到一个专门网站和一名专家主持人的支持，专家主持人将培养科学家和科学用户之间的关系，最终目的是建立足够的能力，为学习和新的合作研究机会创造一个新的自我维持的平台。背景-处理不确定性和风险的能力。自然环境科学是一门不确定性科学。从业者在表示所涉及的过程时如果没有显着的不确定性，就无法对真实的问题进行预测。在集水管理方面，这种固有的不确定性因未来气候变化、社会变革和技术创新的额外复杂性而加剧。这些都是难以预测或量化的，并建议需要一个适应性的管理方法，与现有的和新出现的立法驱动的科学需要。例如，欧盟水框架指令为流域科学家提出了一些关键问题：污水和扩散源的改善是否会以可预测的方式改变河流生态？气候变化对土地利用的可持续性的影响是否大于土地利用的变化？同样，欧盟洪水指令提出了一些问题，其中管理不确定性是必不可少的，例如，我们如何在有限的可用数据下估计“100年或1000年一遇的洪水”？这些问题需要一个综合的方法来集水管理- '从云到海岸'。基础设施和政策工具的良好投资决策需要认识到不同类型变化预测中固有的不确定性的方法，以便确定稳健、适应性强的管理优先事项。许多决策是基于对未来情景的最佳估计，而没有充分考虑到这种估计中的重大不确定性。考虑不确定性的方法确实存在，并可能改变所做的决定。拟议的流域变化网络（CCN）将交流如何处理流域综合管理中的不确定性的知识，最初的重点是在规划洪水风险，水资源短缺和扩散污染的适应和缓解方面的决策。CCN将汇集NERC科学家和科学用户的核心，以提供用户定义的经济和社会效益要求，同时还涉及更广泛的科学用户和NERC受众。该网络的主要目标是将现代不确定性估计方法与流域一级的适应性管理相结合，将风险和不确定性联系起来。

A Catchment Change Network is proposed that will enable the exchange of knowledge, people, skills and expertise between the NERC research base and its science user community. The initial focus will be to understand and manage uncertainty and risk related to water scarcity, flood risk and diffuse pollution management. However, it is intended that the network will evolve to consider other topics and become self-sustaining beyond the lifetime of the NERC investment. The initial activities, for which NERC funding is sought, will take the form of three complementary Focus Areas with Focus Area Teams comprised of two lead researchers and two core science users, designed to allow the exchange of NERC knowledge in a form of benefit to a much broader range of science users. The activities will include workshops and training for industry and the private sector, focussed special publications, representing Guides to Good Practice, and annual conferences developed by the Focus Area Teams. The network will be supported by a dedicated web site and an expert facilitator who will nurture the relationship between scientists and science users with the final aim to build sufficient capacity to create a new and self-sustainable platform for learning and new collaborative research opportunities. The context - Capacity to handle uncertainty and risk. The science of the natural environment is an uncertain science. Practitioners cannot make predictions for real problems without significant uncertainty in representing the processes involved. In catchment management, this inherent uncertainty is exacerbated by the additional complexities of future climate change, societal change and technical innovation. These are all difficult to anticipate or quantify and suggest a need for an adaptive approach to management with a science need driven by existing and emerging legislation. The EU Water Framework Directive, for example, poses a number of key questions for catchment scientists: Will improvements in effluents and diffuse sources change stream ecology in predictable ways? Will climate change have a greater effect than land use change on sustainability of use? Similarly, the EU Floods Directive poses questions in which management of uncertainty is essential, e.g. how can we estimate for the '100 or 1000 year flood' given limited available data? Such questions require an integrated approach to catchment management - 'from cloud to coast'. Good investment decisions for infrastructure and policy instruments require methodologies that recognise the intrinsic uncertainty in the predictions of different types of change so that robust, adaptive, management priorities can be determined. Much decision making is based on best estimates of future scenarios, without adequate account of the significant uncertainties in such estimates. Methods for taking account of uncertainties do exist and might change decisions made. The proposed Catchment Change Network (CCN) will exchange knowledge of how to handle uncertainties in integrated catchment management, with an initial focus on decision making in planning for adaptation and mitigation in flood risk, water scarcity, and diffusive pollution. The CCN will draw together a core of NERC scientists and science users to deliver user defined requirements for economic and social benefit, whilst also involving a wider science user and NERC audience. The major aim of the network will be to integrate modern uncertainty estimation methods linking risk and uncertainty with a move towards adaptive management at the catchment scale.