Climate change and management of forest biodiversity: predicting the impacts of climate matching strategies on plant-herbivore-enemy interactions.

世界正在经历快速的气候变化，预计未来50年全球平均气温将上升2-5摄氏度。在一系列预测的生态系统影响中，已经有记录的一种是温度驱动的物种分布的变化，即许多流动动物类群的物种内遗传多样性。然而，长寿植物，包括Keystone森林树木，扩散缓慢，无法在个人寿命内适应快速的气候变化。森林很可能是首批受到气候变化影响的栖息地之一，这一认识推动了寻找适当的管理对策的努力。目前的做法是每50-100年用当地来源的种子种群(或种源)重新种植一次。然而，随着气候的变化，当地的树木表型预计将变得越来越不适应当地的条件。为了减轻对林业的影响，有人提出了一种策略，就是重新种植与气候相匹配的树木种群，即在欧洲确定那些现在经历了预测英国50-100年后气候的地区，并利用这些地区的种源进行重新种植。尽管直觉上看起来很有吸引力，但气候匹配并非没有风险。种植非本地树种可能会扰乱当地树木与相关动物之间高度特异的相互作用，可能会破坏生态系统进程，包括每年价值数十亿美元的自然虫害防治。此外，非本土树木可能会对北方的季节模式做出反应，从而扰乱它们通常对关键生物学过程的计时，特别是在春季产生新叶(或萌芽)的计时。这反过来可能会对依赖动物产生重大后果--特别是草食性昆虫和依赖它们的捕食者(包括许多鸣禽)。该项目解决了气候匹配的关键问题：种植具有不同生物学特性的非本地橡树种源对草食动物和捕食者的生物多样性有何影响？这项工作有助于预测气候变化的生物多样性后果，直接涉及EHFI呼吁中的主题3(第2和3点)&测试气候变化生态学中普遍相关的假设。我们将在固着的栎树中研究这些问题，Quercus Petraea是英国和欧洲大陆数百种相关动物的关键物种。我们将利用法国的一项大规模实验，通过在一次试验中将来自欧洲许多地区和小亚细亚的无柄橡树种植在一起，所有这些都暴露在相同的当地食草动物和捕食者群落中，从而重现气候匹配的影响。正如在气候匹配中所预期的那样，从不同纬度进口的橡树开放叶子的时间非常不同，有些比当地的橡树早，有些比当地的橡树晚。我们将通过调查20个种源的昆虫食草动物和它们的黄蜂天敌来研究这种和其他生物特征的变异对生物多样性的影响，以获取固着橡树的全部生物和遗传多样性。具体地说，我们将测试生物多样性如何随着本地和非本地橡树之间的特征差异(包括萌芽时间)而变化。我们的目标不仅是测试一系列在气候变化生态学中具有普遍重要性的假设，而且还旨在产生统计关系，使林业管理者和其他利益攸关方能够预测气候匹配作为一种战略可能产生的生物多样性后果。该项目涉及CEH和NERC任务的既定目标，即预测从几天到几十年的环境变化对区域和地方的影响，量化环境变化对自然资源的影响(挑战四，CEH科学战略)，并确定减轻环境变化对生态系统和生态系统服务的影响的战略和控制措施(挑战六)。

The world is experiencing rapid climate change with a predicted rise in global average temperatures of 2-5?C over the next 50 years. Among a range of predicted ecosystem impacts, one already documented is a temperature-driven shift in species distributions & within-species genetic diversity in many mobile animal taxa. However, long-lived plants, including keystone forest trees, disperse slowly & cannot adapt to rapid climate change within the lifespan of individuals. Forests are likely to be among the first habitats impacted by climate change, a realisation driving the search for appropriate management responses. Current practice involves replanting every 50 - 100 years with locally sourced seed populations (or provenances). However, as climates change, local tree phenotypes are predicted to become increasingly poorly adapted to local conditions. One strategy that has been proposed to mitigate this impact in forestry is replanting with 'climate matched' tree populations, i.e. to identify areas in Europe that experience now the climate predicted for the UK 50 - 100 years from now, & to use provenances from these locations in replanting. Though intuitively attractive, climate matching is not without risk. Planting with non-native tree provenances may disrupt highly-specific interactions between local trees and associated animals, potentially undermining ecosystem processes including natural pest control valued at billions of dollars annually. Further, non-native trees are likely to respond to northern seasonal patterns in such a way that their usual timing of key biological processes, particularly the timing of production of new leaves in spring (or budburst), is disrupted. This in turn could have major consequences for dependent animals - particularly herbivorous insects and the predators that depend on them (including many song birds). This project addresses the key question for climate matching: what is the impact of growing non-native oak provenances, with different biological traits to native oaks, on the biodiversity of herbivores and predators? The work contributes to predicting the biodiversity consequences of climate change, directly addressing Topic 3 (points 2 & 3) in the EHFI call & testing hypotheses of general relevance in climate change ecology. We will examine these issues in the sessile oak, Quercus petraea, a keystone species for hundreds of associated animal species in Britain and continental Europe. We will make use of a large-scale experiment in France that recreates the impact of climate matching by growing sessile oaks from many parts of Europe and Asia Minor together in a single trial, all exposed to the same community of local herbivores and predators. As expected in climate matching, oaks imported from differing latitudes open their leaves at very different times, some earlier and some later than local oaks. We will examine the biodiversity consequences of variation in this and other biological traits by surveying the insect herbivores and their wasp natural enemies in 20 provenances capturing the full biological and genetic diversity of sessile oak. Specifically, we will test how biodiversity changes in response to differences in traits (including timing of budburst) between local and non-native oaks. We aim not only to test a range of hypotheses of general importance in climate change ecology, but also to generate statistical relationships that allow forestry managers and other stakeholders to predict likely biodiversity consequences of climate matching as a strategy. This project addresses the stated aims of the CEH and NERC missions to predict the regional & local impacts of environmental change from days to decades, to quantify the impact of environmental change on natural resources (Challenge IV, CEH Science Strategy), & to identify strategies & control measures to mitigate impacts of environmental change on ecosystems, ecosystem services (Challenge VI).