Developing statistical climate forecasts for the coming decade

预测未来十年区域尺度上的气候对许多决策者都具有相当大的价值。例如，有关降雨的信息将有助于水务公司的规划，铁路公司可以决定是否需要铺设新的轨道来应对不断上升的气温。影响未来十年气候的两个主要因素：第一，气候系统对温室气体排放和火山和太阳活动等其他外部因素的持续反应；第二，海洋的自然波动可以抵消或加强十年或二十年的人为变化。直到最近，气候模式主要只用于预测外部成分。然而，现在正在进行一项重大的国际努力，将有关海洋现状的信息添加到气候模型中，以便考虑这两个因素，从而改进预测。该项目建议研究预测未来十年气候的统计方法，并提供一种方法来测试我们的复杂气候模型有多好，并确定投入的资源是否为预测增加了价值。该项目将专注于预测海面温度，但未来的工作可能会研究气温和降雨预测。

Predicting the climate on regional scales for the coming decade would be of considerable value to a wide range of decision makers. For example, information about rainfall would aid planning for water companies, and rail companies could decide whether new track needs to be laid to cope with rising temperatures. Two main factors influence the climate of the next decade; firstly, the continuing response of the climate system to greenhouse gas emissions and other external factors such as volcanoes and solar activity, and secondly, natural fluctuations in the ocean which can offset, or enhance, anthropogenic changes for a decade or two. Until recently, climate models were primarily used to predict only the external component. However, there is now a major international effort underway to add information about the present state of the ocean into climate models in order to consider both factors and hence improve predictions. This project proposes to examine statistical ways to predict the climate over the coming decade, and offers a way to test how good our complex climate models are, and determine whether the resources invested add value to the predictions. The project will focus on predicting sea surface temperatures, but future work could examine air temperature and rainfall predictions.