Future impacts of agricultural contaminants on ecosystem services in South Asia

英国最近由环境与人类健康资助的一项研究预测，气候变化将导致农业中病原体和化学物质对生态系统和人类健康的风险增加。增加的幅度将在很大程度上取决于污染物类型。随着农业实践的加强和疾病压力的增加，气候变化将推动杀虫剂和杀菌剂的更多使用。强化还可能导致职业接触水平的增加，从而增加人畜共患病的可能性。极端天气事件将动员土壤和粪便中的污染物，潜在地增加它们的生物有效性。气候变化还将影响病原体和化学污染物在农业系统中的去向和运输。温度的升高和水分含量的变化可能会降低化学品和病原体的持久性，而水文特征的变化可能会增加污染物输送到供水系统的可能性。除了这些变化，预计水生群落的结构也将发生变化。总体而言，这些变化可能导致粮食生产所需的生态系统服务的长期供应减少(例如，用于种植作物的土壤、用于粮食生产的授粉和病虫害防治、野生食品和鱼类生产)以及提供安全饮用水。这些对生态系统服务的影响将对健康和福祉产生连锁反应。然而，由于问题的复杂性以及重大的知识差距，我们还不能量化这一问题，这意味着目前无法确定是否需要适应和缓解战略。例如，目前关于杀虫剂和其他农业化学品混合物在南亚农业区生态系统中扩散污染的知识有限，对这些生态系统提供的生态系统服务可能产生的影响更是知之甚少。更好地了解与当前和未来使用农用化学品有关的失去生态系统服务的风险，是实现所有人的粮食和水安全的一个关键组成部分。因此，本项目将把基于案头的审查与专家讲习班结合起来，以便开始探讨：1)农业污染物目前对南亚生态系统服务的影响，以及这些影响对健康和福祉的影响；2)由于气候和社会经济变化，今后农业化学品的投入、去向和运输可能如何变化，这些变化对关键生态系统服务的影响，以及对南亚人口健康和福祉的连锁反应。该项目还将探讨潜在的适应和缓解方案，并根据项目结果提出政策建议。到项目结束时，我们的目标是建立一个由领先的自然和社会科学家组成的联盟，他们有能力在未来解决这个高度复杂的问题。我们将申请未来的ESPA呼吁，以支持该财团的工作，并将探索其他资金来源。

A recent Environment and Human Health funded study in the UK has predicted that climate change will result in an increase in risks of pathogens and chemicals from agriculture to the health of ecosystems and humans. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Climate change will fuel increased use of pesticides and biocides as farming practices intensify and disease pressures increase. Intensification may also lead to increased levels of occupational contact, increasing potential for zoonoses. Extreme weather events will mobilise contaminants from soils and faecal matter, potentially increasing their bioavailability. Climate change will also affect the fate and transport of pathogens and chemical contaminants in agricultural systems. Increases in temperature and changes in moisture content are likely to reduce the persistence of chemicals and pathogens while changes in hydrological characteristics are likely to increase the potential for contaminants to be transported to water supplies. Alongside these changes, it is expected that there will be changes in the structure of aquatic communities. Overall these changes may result in a reduction in the long term supply of the ecosystem services needed for food production (e.g. soil for growing crops, pollination and pest control for food production, wild food and fish production) and the provision of safe water for drinking. These impacts on ecosystem services will have knock on effects on health and wellbeing. However, due to the complexity of the problem as well as major knowledge gaps, we are not yet in a position to quantify the problem which means that it is not currently possible to identify whether adaptation and mitigation strategies are required. For example, current knowledge of diffuse pollution of mixes of pesticides, and other agricultural chemicals, in ecosystems in agricultural areas in S. Asia is limited and even less is known about the possible effects on the ecosystem services provided by these ecosystems. An improved understanding of the risks of losing ecosystem services associated with the current and future use of agricultural chemicals is a key component towards attaining food and water security for all. This project will therefore combine a desk-based review with an expert workshop in order to begin to explore: 1) the current impacts of agricultural contaminants on ecosystem services in S. Asia and the effects of these impacts on health and wellbeing; and 2) how the inputs, fate and transport of agricultural chemicals might change in the future due to climatic and socio-economic changes, the implications of these changes on key ecosystem services and the knock-on effects on the health and well being of the population in S. Asia. The project will also explore potential adaptation and mitigation options and give policy recommendations based on the project results. By the end of the project we aim to have established a consortium of leading natural and social scientists who are equipped to address this highly complex problem in the future. We will apply to future ESPA calls to support the work of the consortium and will also explore other avenues of funding.