UNS: Collaborative Research: Global Agricultural Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Climate Intervention

向平流层注入气溶胶，一种被称为平流层气溶胶气候干预的方法，已被建议作为一种补偿人为全球变暖的策略。许多研究集中在与平流层气溶胶气候干预（也称为平流层气溶胶地球工程- SAG）相关的气候变化上，但只有少数研究解决了其潜在的社会影响，特别是全球农业生产力。本项目将研究与目前和未来无SAG相比，SAG导致的预期气候变化将如何与全球农业系统相互作用，影响作物生长和世界粮食生产。这里考虑的与SAG相关的空间明确气候变化包括太阳总辐射减少、太阳漫射辐射增加、地表温度降低、降水变化、地表臭氧浓度变化以及全球平均CO2水平的不同。该项目是一个多学科合作项目，旨在通过综合评估框架（包括与多种机械作物模型相关联的最先进的地球系统模型）评估SAG对全球农业的影响。这些模型旨在利用光合作用过程中臭氧破坏和漫射辐射的表征来推进基于过程的作物建模的前沿。通过模式集合设置和多作物模式评估，以及使用不同的气候强迫数据降尺度方法，将系统地量化影响的不确定性。将研究各个气候因子对作物产量的详细影响，同时考虑农业系统对预期SAG气候影响的反馈。考虑到当前和未来没有SAG的气候，该项目的结果将为SAG对世界粮食生产的影响提供新的定量证据。该项目将促进气候建模界（包括地球工程模型比对项目）和作物建模界（农业模型比对和改进项目）之间的交流，以促进对全球变暖和平流层气溶胶干预的未来气候下农业影响的理解。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, an approach known as stratospheric aerosol climate intervention, has been suggested as a strategy to compensate for anthropogenic global warming. Much research has focused on climate changes associated with stratospheric aerosol climate intervention (also called stratospheric aerosol geoengineering – SAG), but only a few studies have addressed its potential societal impacts, in particular global agricultural productivity. This project will examine how anticipated climate changes from SAG, compared with the present and a future without SAG, would interact with the global agriculture system, influence crop growth, and impact world food production. Spatially explicit climate changes considered here associated with SAG include less total solar radiation, more diffuse solar radiation, reduced surface temperature, changed precipitation, changed surface ozone concentration, and different global mean CO2 levels.This project is a multidisciplinary collaboration to evaluate global agriculture impacts of SAG with an integrated assessment framework, including a state-of-the-art Earth System Model linked to multiple mechanistic crop models. These models are targeted to advance the frontier of process-based crop modeling with representations of ozone damage and diffuse radiation in photosynthesis processes. Impact uncertainties will be systematically quantified through the model ensemble setup and multi-crop model assessment, and by using different downscaling methods for climate forcing data. Detailed impacts of individual climate factors on crop yields will be studied, while considering feedbacks from the agriculture system to the anticipated SAG climate impacts. The results of this project will provide new quantitative evidence of SAG implications for world food production in view of present day and potential future climates without SAG. The project will foster communication between the climate modeling community (including the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and the crop modeling community (the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project), to advance understanding of agricultural impacts under global warming and a future climate with stratospheric aerosol intervention.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.