UNS: Collaborative Research: Global Agricultural Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Climate Intervention

向平流层注入气溶胶是一种被称为平流层气溶胶气候干预的方法，已被建议作为补偿人为全球变暖的一种战略。许多研究侧重于与平流层气溶胶气候干预(也称为平流层气溶胶地球工程--SAG)有关的气候变化，但只有少数研究涉及其潜在的社会影响，特别是全球农业生产力。该项目将研究SAG带来的预期气候变化，与现在和没有SAG的未来相比，将如何与全球农业系统相互作用，影响作物生长，并影响世界粮食生产。这些模型旨在通过描述光合作用过程中的臭氧破坏和漫射辐射来推进基于过程的作物建模的前沿。影响的不确定性将通过模式集合设置和多作物模式评估以及通过对气候强迫数据使用不同的缩减尺度方法来系统地量化。将研究个别气候因素对作物产量的详细影响，同时考虑农业系统对预期的SAG气候影响的反馈。该项目的结果将提供新的量化证据，说明SAG对世界粮食生产的影响，因为目前和未来可能没有SAG的气候。

Injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, an approach known as stratospheric aerosol climate intervention, has been suggested as a strategy to compensate for anthropogenic global warming. Much research has focused on climate changes associated with stratospheric aerosol climate intervention (also called stratospheric aerosol geoengineering – SAG), but only a few studies have addressed its potential societal impacts, in particular global agricultural productivity. This project will examine how anticipated climate changes from SAG, compared with the present and a future without SAG, would interact with the global agriculture system, influence crop growth, and impact world food production. Spatially explicit climate changes considered here associated with SAG include less total solar radiation, more diffuse solar radiation, reduced surface temperature, changed precipitation, changed surface ozone concentration, and different global mean CO2 levels.This project is a multidisciplinary collaboration to evaluate global agriculture impacts of SAG with an integrated assessment framework, including a state-of-the-art Earth System Model linked to multiple mechanistic crop models. These models are targeted to advance the frontier of process-based crop modeling with representations of ozone damage and diffuse radiation in photosynthesis processes. Impact uncertainties will be systematically quantified through the model ensemble setup and multi-crop model assessment, and by using different downscaling methods for climate forcing data. Detailed impacts of individual climate factors on crop yields will be studied, while considering feedbacks from the agriculture system to the anticipated SAG climate impacts. The results of this project will provide new quantitative evidence of SAG implications for world food production in view of present day and potential future climates without SAG. The project will foster communication between the climate modeling community (including the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and the crop modeling community (the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project), to advance understanding of agricultural impacts under global warming and a future climate with stratospheric aerosol intervention.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.