Development of a European Extreme Wind Climatology

背景在欧洲，自然灾害造成的长期保险损失中，有75%-80%是由风暴造成的。它们是无法预防的，但保险公司可以通过充分准备和反应，节省自己和客户的成本和中断。保险业内部有必要通过了解其典型行为(气候学)来更好地控制这种危险的影响。保险公司一直无法解决这个问题，因为人们认为获取用于商业用途的天气数据成本太高，而且具有投机性。其他项目也产生了风气候，但一直基于模型或代理(而不是观测)，过于地区性(需要全欧洲范围的气候学，因为保险公司通常承保整个欧洲的财产)，或者专注于平均条件而不是极端风。NERC BADC MIDAS数据集中提供了一个未开发的欧洲风观测数据的中心资源，这为英国和欧洲的研究和保险界提供了一个独特的机会，可以提供新的研究成果。伦敦大学学院穆拉德空间科学实验室在将国家气候研究中心资助的研究项目成果转化为应用方面有着良好的记录，例如最终导致在2007年创建了EuroTempest有限公司(一种面向行业的新型气象信息服务)和开发成功的伦敦大学学院全球干旱监测系统。目的和目标1.开发一种方法，可以准确地评估欧洲任何选定地点可能发生的潜在破坏性大风的频率。2.与欧洲保险业接触，通过其使用和进一步的合作和发展，确保该方法的支持和进入市场的途径。我们的目标是：a)创建一套尽可能准确、覆盖尽可能大的区域和尽可能长的时间段的欧洲地面风和阵风观测数据。B)为一些欧洲气象观测站提供极端风的概率分布。C)制定估算欧洲任何地点极端风的概率分布的方案。D)制作清晰的文件，解释方法、结果、注意事项和我们的使用建议。E)保持和增加业界联系的持续支持和兴趣。F)提高业内对该项目及其商业化潜力的认识。G)确保实现该项目商业化潜力的途径。潜在的应用和益处风暴气候学能够对每个地点的风风险进行全面评估，从而可以提供以下信息：a)风预警和响应系统在影响方面，风有多不寻常比风速的值更有用。通过将风预报/观测与气候学进行比较，保险公司可以快速评估这一点，并准确和客观地评估可能对客户造成的影响。因此，以气候学为基础的预警和资源管理系统将能够对极端风事件作出更知情和更有效的反应。B)保险定价风暴气候学将使保险公司能够更准确地为风带来的风险定价。C)巨灾债券的发展和评估巨灾债券是再保险市场中使用的一种替代风险转移形式。它们通常是由一个指数触发的，该指数是欧洲各地风速的加权平均。在每个地点应用的权重在很大程度上是极端风或风气候学带来的风险的函数。D)其他行业，如建筑业。许多建筑合同允许因“异常恶劣的天气”而延误。风暴气候学将允许评估什么时候风是“异常”的。它还可以在规划阶段协助确定因异常大风造成延误的可能性和时间长度。

CONTEXT Windstorms cause 75-80% of the long term insurance loss from natural hazards in Europe. They cannot be prevented but insurers can save both themselves and their customers costs and disruption by being well prepared and responsive. There is a need within the insurance industry to better control the effects of this peril through an understanding of its typical behaviour (climatology). Insurers have been unable to approach this question as it is considered too costly and speculative to access weather data for commercial use. Other projects have produced wind climatologies but have been based on models or proxies (rather than observations), have been too regional (a Europe-wide climatology is required as insurers often cover property across Europe) or have focussed on average conditions rather than extreme winds. The availability of an untapped, central resource for European wind observation data in the NERC BADC MIDAS dataset presents a unique opportunity to deliver novel research to benefit the research and insurance communities of the UK and Europe. The Mullard Space Science Laboratory at UCL has a strong track record of developing the results of NERC funded research projects into applications, such as those which ultimately led to the creation of EuroTempest Ltd (a novel weather information service to industry) in 2007 and the development of the successful UCL Global Drought Monitor. AIM AND OBJECTIVES 1. To develop a method which can accurately assess how frequently potentially damaging winds can be expected to occur at any chosen location in Europe. 2. To engage with the European insurance industry to secure the support and route to market of the method, both through its use and through further collaboration and development. We aim to: a) Create a set of European surface wind and gust observation data that are as accurate, cover as large an area, and for as long a time period, as is possible. b) Provide probability distributions for extreme winds for a number of European weather observation stations. c) Develop schemes for estimating probability distributions for extreme winds at any location in Europe. d) Produce clearly presented documents that explain methods, results, caveats and our recommendations for use. e) Maintain and increase the continued support and interest of industry contacts. f) Widen awareness of the project and its commercialization potential within the industry. g) Secure a route to the realization of the commercialization potential of the project. POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS A windstorm climatology enables a full assessment of wind risk on a location by location basis and thus could inform: a) Wind warning and response systems In terms of impact, how unusual the wind is is of more utility than the value of the wind speed. By comparing wind forecasts/observations with climatology insurers could quickly assess this and accurately and objectively assess the likely impact on their customers. Warning and resource management systems based on climatology would therefore enable a more informed and efficient response to extreme wind events. b) Insurance Pricing A windstorm climatology would allow insurers to more accurately price the risk from wind. c) Development and assessment of catastrophe Bonds Catastrophe Bonds are a form of alternative risk transfer used in the reinsurance market. They are typically triggered from an index which is a weighted average of wind speeds at locations across Europe. The weighting applied at each location is in large part a function of the risk posed by extreme wind, or the wind climatology. d) Other industries e.g. Construction. Many construction contracts allow for delays due to 'exceptionally inclement weather'. A windstorm climatology would allow for an assessment of when winds are 'exceptional'. It could also assist at the planning stage, in determining the likelihood and length of delays due to exceptional winds.