CARIBRISK: Increasing resilience to volcanic eruptions in the eastern Caribbean, Northern Andes and Central America.

大约有5亿人住在离活火山很近的地方，当火山动荡或火山爆发时，他们的生命受到威胁，生活受到破坏。火山爆发除了可能造成生命损失外，还可能造成巨大的经济损失，最近欧洲发生的火山灰紧急情况就说明了这一点。与其他自然灾害一样，火山灾害可以抑制发展，导致苦难并导致许多社会问题。这些影响在新兴国家和发展中国家尤为显著。该项目名为CARIBRISK，旨在通过一个协调和综合的项目提高东加勒比、安第斯山脉北部国家和中美洲对火山爆发的抵御能力，该项目包括该地区研究所和研究用户的参与、观点和参与。火山灾害和紧急情况的特点是，它们涉及自然力量和人类系统之间的相互作用。增强韧性需要我们理解这些相互作用。考虑火山突发事件的生命周期是有用的，即火山爆发前的准备，火山动荡和喷发期间的反应，以及恢复。全面的应对措施需要针对所有三个阶段进行研究，其中既有科学方面的，也有社会经济方面的。地球科学家可以绘制出可能受到影响的地区和关键基础设施，建立仪器网络来提供早期预警，还可以监测火山喷发，并在火山喷发期间向当局提供科学建议。社会和政治科学家可以识别脆弱性，评估人类的行为和态度，并评估疏散计划和公共教育项目等社会反应的有效性。自然科学和社会科学都可以分析反应和恢复。这个项目的关键观点是确定最有可能帮助提高复原力的研究。我们认为，确定关键研究的最好方法是与有责任对他们认为的关键研究需求做出回应的实地人员交谈。这项研究建议与科学机构、国际机构、国家、区域和地方政府以及负责规划和应对火山紧急情况的服务部门、非政府组织、受影响社区和商业部门（例如保险业和农业）开展对话。我们建议在大加勒比区域建立一个咨询论坛，访问该区域，与关键人物交谈，并举行一次大型讲习班。我们设想进行双向对话。英国合作伙伴联盟在火山学和相关社会科学方面具有相当的专业知识，以及在该地区处理真正的火山紧急情况和与伙伴机构合作方面的经验。我们在发展、减少灾害风险和政治科学方面也拥有领先的专业知识。当然，我们对应该发展什么样的研究有自己的想法。然而，研究的利益相关者和使用者将拥有大量的专业知识和知识，特别是在处理火山灾害和紧急情况的尖端。我们想知道他们的想法，交流想法和方法，从而为CARIBRISK提出一个研究议程，这既是优秀的科学，也是整合了主要利益相关者的需求和观点。我们认为这是提高适应力的最佳方法。

About 500 million people live close enough to active volcanoes that their lives are threatened and lives are disrupted when there is volcanic unrest or an eruption starts. As well as the potential for loss of life, volcanic eruptions can cause large economic losses, as illustrated by the recent volcanic ash emergency in Europe. As with other natural hazards, volcanic disasters can inhibit development, lead to suffering and lead to many social problems. These effects are particularly notable in emerging and developing countries. This project, named CARIBRISK, aims to increase resilience to volcanic eruptions in the eastern Caribbean, countries of the northern Andes and Central America through a co-ordinated and integrated project which includes the involvement, views and participation of institutes and users of research in this region. Volcanic disasters and emergencies have the characteristic that they involve interactions between natural forces and human systems. Increasing resilience requires us to understand these interactions. It is useful to think of a life cycle of volcanic emergencies, namely preparedness prior to an eruption, response during volcanic unrest and eruption, and recovery. A comprehensive response requires research that addresses all three stages, and there are both scientific and socio-economic dimensions. Geoscientists can map out the areas and critical infrastructure that might be affected and set up instrumental networks to give early warning, and can monitor eruptions and respond with scientific advice to authorities during eruptions. Social and political scientists can identify vulnerabilities, assess human behaviours and attitudes, and assess the effectiveness of societal responses such as evacuation plans and public education programmes. Both natural and social sciences can analyse responses and recovery. The key perspective of this project is to identify research which is most likely to help increase resilience. We think that the best way of identifying key research is to talk to people on the ground who have the responsibility to respond about what they think are the key research needs. This study proposes to develop a dialogue with scientific institutions, international agencies, national and regional and local government and services responsible for planning for and responding to volcanic emergencies, NGOs, affected communities and the business sector (for example the insurance industry and agriculture). We propose to develop an advisory forum in the greater Caribbean region, make visits to the region to talk to key people and to hold a major workshop. We envisage a two way dialogue. The consortium of UK partners has considerable expertise in volcanology and the relevant social sciences, as well as experience in the region in real volcanic emergencies and working with partner institutions. We also have leading expertise in development, disaster risk reduction and political sciences. We of course have our own ideas on what research should be developed. However, the stakeholders and users of research will have a great deal of expertise and knowledge, especially at the sharp end of dealing with volcanic hazards and emergencies. We want to know what they think, exchange ideas and approaches and thus come up with a research agenda for CARIBRISK that is both excellent science and integrates the needs and views of the main stakeholders. We think that this is the best approach to increase resilience.