IMMERSE: Integrated Macroecology and Modelling to Elucidate Regulation of Services from Ecosystems

我们对海洋生态系统的了解是零散的，我们预测这些生态系统中各种自然和人为变化的后果的能力是有限的。为了管理海洋环境，我们需要了解大面积和长时间的变化和变化的后果。在这个项目中，我们将开发一个全生态系统的方法来了解英国周围的海洋生态系统的变化，以及它们提供的服务。生态系统服务是人类社会从环境中获得的利益。其中包括食物、材料回收和福祉。沿海和大陆架海洋生态系统具有生物多样性和复杂性。它们的生产力很高，给人类带来了巨大的利益。它们还受到捕鱼和气候变化等人类驱动因素的巨大压力。生态结构在支持关键生态系统服务方面的作用尚未得到充分理解。生态系统服务不能简单地衡量，其重要性和规模因其定义和观测方式而异。要了解生态系统的各种进程，这些进程决定着各种服务的自然变化方式，并对人类的压力作出反应，就需要采用计算机建模的方法。NERC有很好的模型，但这些模型预测除最低水平海洋食物网之外的所有变化的能力有限。一些备受推崇的侧重于食物网和鱼类和哺乳动物等大型生物的建模方法得到普遍使用，但知识方面的差距阻碍了将整个食物网纳入同时考虑环境和食物网变化的模型。这是由于对海洋食物网的研究通常是从其单独的组成部分出发，在不同的尺度上进行，或用于海洋地球化学或渔业等具体应用。我们提出了一个高度集成的项目，以充分利用现有的数据分布在不同的数据持有人在英国和超越。综合数据将用于基于最新生态理论的分析，以提供信息和改进一系列模型。这些模型将共同用于研究生态系统的变化及其提供的服务的潜在未来后果。该方案的地理重点将是西部海域，从英吉利海峡西部，通过凯尔特海和爱尔兰海，到苏格兰西部，尽管英国沃茨其他部分的相关数据也将在适当的地方包括在内。该项目的新奇在于使用最新技术将联合收割机现有的数据集与新的实验和实地工作结合成一个综合系统，用于真正的浮游植物全生态系统分析到整个大陆架规模的渔业我们将在模型中包括这些新知识，以研究能量和材料如何在食物网中移动，以及这些如何受到压力的影响。模型产出将转化为各种规模的服务，为管理决策提供信息。该联盟汇集了来自10个英国组织的28名关键研究人员，以整合现有的知识，数据，模型和新信息，使我们能够了解海洋生态系统在未来将如何变化，以及这些变化将如何改变人类从海洋环境中获得的利益。该项目是一个更大的计划的一部分，其结果和产出将是至关重要的支持NERC的地球化学模型的开发，并应用模型开发来测试潜在的管理干预措施的影响和效率。该项目的遗产将包括工具和综合数据集，这些工具和数据集将使英国在进行有意义的生态和食物网研究的能力方面远远领先于世界其他地区，并具有世界领先的分析和模拟整个生态系统的能力，并了解生态系统服务变化的后果。

Our knowledge of marine ecosystems is fragmented, and our ability to predict the consequences of various natural and human changes in those ecosystems is limited. To manage the marine environment we need to understand change and consequences of change over large areas and long time periods. In this project we will develop a whole-ecosystem approach to understand changes in marine ecosystems around the UK, and the services they provide. Ecosystem services are the benefits that human society derives from the environment. These include food, recycling of materials and well-being. Coastal and shelf marine ecosystems are biodiverse and complex. They are highly productive, bringing huge benefits to humans. They are also under enormous pressure from human drivers such as fishing and climate change. The role of ecological structure in supporting key ecosystem services is not fully understood. Ecosystem services cannot be measured simply, and they vary in importance and magnitude according to how they are defined and observed. Understanding the ecosystem processes governing the way that services vary naturally, and in response to human pressures, requires a computer-modelling approach. NERC has good models, but these have limited ability to predict change in all but the lowest levels of marine food webs. Several well-respected modelling approaches focusing on food webs and larger organisms such as fish and mammals are commonly used, but gaps in knowledge hamper the inclusion of whole food webs into models that consider environmental and food web changes together. This is due to the way marine food webs have generally been studied in their separate components, at different scales or for specific applications such as biogeochemistry or fisheries. We propose a highly integrated project to make best use of existing data spread among different data holders across the UK and beyond. The integrated data will be used for analyses based on the latest ecological theories to inform and improve a range of models. These models will be used collectively to examine changes in ecosystems and potential future consequences for the services they deliver. The geographical focus of the programme will be the western seas, from the western English Channel, through the Celtic and Irish Seas, to western Scotland, although relevant data from other parts of UK waters will be included where appropriate.The novelty of this project is in using recent technologies to combine existing datasets into an integrated system with new experiments and field work for a genuine whole ecosystem analysis from phytoplankton to fisheries at whole shelf scales. We will include this new knowledge in models to examine how energy and materials move within food webs and how these are influenced by pressures. Model outputs will be translated to the services across the range of scales needed to inform management decisions. The consortium brings together 28 key researchers from 10 UK organisations to integrate existing knowledge, data, models and new information, to allow us to understand how marine ecosystems will change in the future, and how those changes will alter the benefits humans derive from the marine environment. The project is part of a larger programme, and results and outputs will be crucial for supporting development of NERC's biogeochemical models, and application of model development to test the impact and efficiency of potential management interventions. The legacies of this project will include tools and combined datasets that will place the UK far ahead of the rest of the world in terms of our ability to conduct meaningful ecological and food web studies, and a world-leading capability to analyse and model whole ecosystems and understand the consequences of change in terms of ecosystems services.