Integrating Macroecology and Modelling to Elucidate Regulation of Services from Ecosystems (IMMERSE)

沿海和陆架海洋生态系统生产力高，给人类带来巨大利益。这些好处被称为“生态系统服务”，包括食物供应、回收和娱乐。沿海和陆架海域富饶、多产，接近大量人口，因此它们面临着渔业和气候变化等因素的巨大压力。尽管进行了多年的密集研究，但我们对陆架生态系统如何运作的了解仍然参差不齐。因此，我们还无法预测他们将如何应对变化。Immerse将来自英国11个研究所的研究人员与互补的跟踪记录结合在一起。我们将开发一种综合的、全生态系统的方法，以了解海洋生态系统如何发生变化，以及这些变化如何影响它们提供的服务。我们将a)综合和分析大量现有但分散的数据，b)通过有重点的实地考察和实验，针对我们理解中的关键数据差距和瓶颈，c)将这些整合到一套计算机模型中，以探索变化和扰动对生态系统服务的未来后果。我们的地理焦点将是西部海域，从英吉利海峡西部，穿过凯尔特海和爱尔兰海，到苏格兰西部，尽管相关数据将包括来自更广泛地区的数据。该项目的新颖性有四个方面：首先，我们将使用基于网络的新方法来结合现有的数据集和速率过程测量，从微生物到鲸鱼，以及整个大陆架规模。通过将这些数据集和公布的数据结合起来，我们可以推导出在个体水平上运作但在生态系统规模上导致模式的潜在“生态规则”--例如，生物体的死亡率或摄食率如何取决于其身体大小和环境温度。第二，我们将通过应用理解食物网的最新方法发展来瞄准关键的知识差距。我们将使用同位素方法追踪海藻和浮游藻类对食物链底部的相对输入；我们将在实验室和野外跟踪这些同位素示踪剂，以准确了解这些植物是如何融入食物链的其余部分的；我们将使用新的图像分析技术来量化海洋中各种生物的大小；我们将使用最新的分子技术来追踪谁吃谁。第三个新奇之处是，我们将不只使用一个模型来理解这些生态系统联系，而是使用六个模型来理解这些生态系统联系，所有这些模型都基于不同的假设。这种“整体”方法类似于气候预测，但在海洋中还处于初级阶段。我们将用上面合成和收集的数据通知这些模型，然后比较整个集合的输出。这种方法限制了任何单一模型的缺点，以便更有力地了解生态系统是如何运作的。然后，这些模型将受到不同变化情景的挑战，例如改变捕捞作业或建立保护区，无论有没有变暖。我们方法的第四个新奇之处是，我们在提案中包括了一个虽小但重要的社会经济部分。这将使政策制定者能够将模型的产出转换为经济估值和指标，以便对一系列海洋生态系统服务的管理决策做出判断。IMMERSE是更大的NERC资金计划的一部分，其覆盖整个食物网的产出将被定制，以支持下两轮资金：第一是开发NERC的食物网下游模型，第二是测试潜在管理干预措施的效率。该项目的遗产将包括工具和组合数据集，这些工具和组合数据集将使英国在了解整个生态系统和生态系统服务变化的后果方面处于领先地位。

Coastal and shelf marine ecosystems are highly productive, bringing great benefits to humans. These benefits, called "ecosystem services" include food supply, recycling and recreation. Coastal and shelf seas are rich, productive and close to large human populations, so they are under great pressure from factors such as fishing and climate change.Despite years of intensive study, our knowledge of how shelf ecosystems work is still patchy. Therefore we cannot yet predict how they will respond to changes. IMMERSE combines researchers with complementary track records from across 11 UK institutes. We will develop an integrated, whole-ecosystem approach to understand how changes occur in marine ecosystems and how these affect the services they provide. We will a) synthesise and analyse the vast array of existing, but scattered, data, b) target key data gaps and choke-points in our understanding with focussed fieldwork and experimentation and c) combine these into a suite of computer models that explore future consequences of changes and perturbations for ecosystem services. Our geographical focus will be the western seas, from the western English Channel, through the Celtic and Irish Seas, to western Scotland, although relevant data will be included from a wider area.The novelty of this project is fourfold: First, we will use novel web-based approaches to combine existing datasets and rate process measurements, from microbes to whales, and at whole shelf scales. By combining these datasets and published data, we can deduce the underlying "ecological rules" that operate at the level of the individual but lead to patterns at the ecosystem scale - for example how an organism's mortality or feeding rate depends on its body size and the ambient temperature.Second we will target key knowledge gaps by applying the latest method developments in understanding food webs. We will use isotopic methods to trace the relative input of seaweed and planktonic algae into the base of the food web; we will follow these isotopic tracers in the lab and in the wild to understand exactly how these plants are incorporated into the rest of food web; we will use new image analysis technology to quantify the full size range of organisms in the sea; and we will use the latest molecular techniques to trace who eats whom. The third novelty is that we will use not just one model to understand these ecosystem linkages but six models, all based on different assumptions. This "ensemble" approach is similar to climate forecasting, but is in its infancy in the sea. We will inform these models with the data synthesised and collected above, and then compare the output across the whole ensemble. This approach limits the shortcomings of any single model for a more robust picture of how the ecosystem works. These models will then be challenged with different scenarios of change, for example changing fishing effort or establishing conservation zones, with and without warming.The fourth novelty of our approach is that we include a small but important socioeconomic part to our proposal. This will enable policy makers to convert the output from models into economic valuations and indicators, so that judgements can be made on management decisions for a suite of marine ecosystem services.IMMERSE is part of a larger NERC funding scheme, and its outputs spanning the whole of the food web will be tailored to support the next two rounds of funding: first in developing NERC's model of the lower reaches of the food web, and second in testing efficiency of potential management interventions. The legacies of this project will include tools and combined datasets that will place the UK in a leading position to understand whole ecosystems and the consequences of change in terms of ecosystem services.