Analysis of historic drought and water scarcity in the UK: a systems-based study of drivers, impacts and their interactions

在包括英国在内的许多国家，干旱和缺水是对生计和福祉的重大威胁。英国部分地区已经水资源紧张，并面临着各种各样的压力，包括不断增长的人口和对日益有限的水资源的加紧开发。此外，由于环境变化，未来许多地区可能会变得更加干燥，所有这些都意味着水资源管理面临重大挑战。然而，D&WS不仅仅是自然灾害。还有一系列社会经济和管制因素可能影响干旱的进程，例如用水做法和抽象许可制度。因此，如果要更好地管理干旱和缺水，就需要更详细地了解干旱期间水文气象系统和社会系统之间的联系。基于对广泛部门（水文气象、环境、农业、监管、社会和文化）信息的分析，该项目将描述和量化自19世纪后期以来干旱和水资源短缺（D&WS）的历史，并将产生英国干旱的第一个系统帐户（英国干旱清单）。该清单是对干旱的驱动因素及其影响进行新的水文气象和社会经济联合分析的基础，其重点是寻找特征系统相互作用。基于系统的理解得到加强，预计将改善未来干旱管理和规划的决策，包括与D&WS有关的更知情、更有效的公共话语。目前还没有描述水文气象和社会经济驱动因素与干旱的环境和社会影响之间相互作用的D&WS概念模型。因此，第一项任务将发展一个新的基于系统的D&WS概念化。这将用于调查干旱的驱动因素、影响及其相互依存关系。第二项任务将建立知识库，供本项目和更广泛的NERC联合王国干旱和缺水方案使用。它涉及数据集和元数据的汇编，包括D&WS选定案例研究片段的数据和信息。关于D&WS的社会和文化方面的信息将从口述历史和整理历史和最近的印刷和广播媒体的报道中汇编，并将对2010- 2012年干旱的社会媒体进行首次分析。第三项任务将通过干旱时间表、突出关键事件的特定部门叙述年表和编制新的跨部门干旱指标的新组合来编制干旱清单。为了了解D&WS事件期间社会系统和环境系统之间的相互作用，第四项任务将：确定一系列干旱期间重要的系统相互作用；确定干旱的主要触发因素和阈值；并且，描述历史记录中系统相互作用变化背后的原因。最后一项也是第五项任务考察了社会经济背景和水资源管理实践如何促进对历史记录中D&WS事件的复原力，并考虑了对未来干旱管理规划变化的影响。它还评估了公众与负责水资源管理的人之间最有效的对话和信息交流形式，这些形式可能有助于在未来的D&WS事件中产生有益的结果。主要研究成果将是：在多种环境和社会驱动因素的背景下，对D&WS的基于系统的理解；可获取的综合跨部门英国干旱清单；改进建议和方法，支持与干旱管理有关的决策；以及重新构建与D&WS相关的公共话语的新策略。

Drought and water scarcity (D&WS) are significant threats to livelihoods and wellbeing in many countries, including the United Kingdom (UK). Parts of the UK are already water-stressed and are facing a wide range of pressures, including an expanding population and intensifying exploitation of increasingly limited water resources. In addition, many regions may become significantly drier in future due to environmental changes, all of which implies major challenges to water resource management. However, D&WS are not simply natural hazards. There are also a range of socio-economic and regulatory factors that may influence the course of droughts, such as water consumption practices and abstraction licensing regimes. Consequently, if drought and water scarcity are to be better managed, there is a need for a more detailed understanding of the links between hydrometeorological and social systems during droughts. Based on an analysis of information from a wide range of sectors (hydrometeorological, environmental, agricultural, regulatory, social and cultural), the project will characterise and quantify the history of drought and water scarcity (D&WS) since the late 19th century and will produce the first systematic account (UK Drought Inventory) of droughts in the UK. The Inventory forms the basis of a novel joint hydro-meteorological and socio-economic analysis of the drivers of drought and their impacts, with a focus on a search for characteristic systems interactions. The enhanced systems-based understanding is expected to improve decision-making for future drought management and planning, including more informed and thus effective public discourse related to D&WS. Currently there are no conceptual models of D&WS that describe interactions between hydrometerological and socio-economic drivers and environmental and societal impacts of droughts. The first task will therefore develop a new systems-based conceptualisation of D&WS. This will be used to investigate drought drivers, impacts and their interdependencies. The second task will produce the knowledge base for use within the project and the wider NERC UK Drought and Water Scarcity Programme. It involves the compilation of datasets and metadata, including data and information for selected case study episodes of D&WS. Information on the social and cultural aspects of D&WS will be compiled from oral histories and collation of reports in the historic and recent print and broadcast media, and the first analysis of social media from the 2010-12 drought will be carried out. The third task will develop the Drought Inventory by a novel combination of drought timelines, sector-specific narrative chronologies highlighting key events, and the production of new cross-sectoral drought indicators. To understand the interactions between social and environmental systems during D&WS episodes, the fourth task will: identify significant systems interactions across a range of droughts; identify key triggers and thresholds for droughts; and, describe the reasons behind any changes in systems interactions in droughts over the historic record. The final and fifth task examines how socio-economic context and water resource management practices contributed to resilience to episodes of D&WS in the historic record and considers the implications for changes in planning for the management of future droughts. It also provides an assessment of what are the most effective forms of dialogue and information exchange between the public and those responsible for water resource management that may contribute to beneficial outcomes during future episodes of D&WS. The key research outcomes will be: a systems-based understanding of D&WS in the context of multiple environmental and societal drivers; an accessible, integrated cross-sector UK Drought Inventory; improved advice and methods to support decision making related to drought management; and, new strategies to re-frame public discourse related to D&WS.