Understanding the effects of space weather on water sector infrastructure

近地天基和地面系统的空间天气中断现在被认为具有重大的社会经济影响，并被列入英国国家民事紧急情况风险登记册，作为中高可能性和中等影响的民事紧急情况。具体地说，英国国家风险登记册指出，“(C)目前的理解是，严重的空间天气事件可能对一系列技术和基础设施产生影响，包括电网、卫星服务、运输和数字控制部件”，任何依赖卫星服务的行业，“(S)每次空间天气都可能通过损坏天基硬件、扭曲卫星信号或增加地面接收器的误差来中断包括全球导航卫星系统、通信和地球观测和成像系统在内的卫星服务。”空间天气对包括电网、卫星和地面通信和导航系统在内的技术基础设施的潜在影响，在政府一级引起了全世界对开发预测和缓解技术和战略的兴趣。事实上，英国政府现在正寻求在英国气象局内建立一个空间天气预报中心，该中心代表着地球天气预报的最先进水平，可以将其150年的预报传统应用到空间天气领域。极端太空天气的影响只能估计，因为我们不知道它的全部范围。然而，据估计，仅在美国，一次极端空间天气事件的潜在总成本在第一年就约为2万亿美元，恢复期为4-10年。因此，量化所有形式的空间天气的影响至关重要。在更广泛的基础设施部门，即除了与上文讨论的技术基础设施重合的部门之外，开展的工作较少，如配电、通信和航空。然而，其他基础设施部门表现出对空间天气的重大脆弱性，既依赖于这些技术(例如全球导航卫星系统、无线电通信)，也通过受干扰的电离层，但也通过特定部门的脆弱性。例如，阿特金斯最近进行了一项关于铁路基础设施的研究，该基础设施具有易受空间天气影响的特定通信技术和信号网络。因此，需要更详细地考虑部门脆弱性，这对关键的国家基础设施尤为重要。虽然对这些基础设施的大部分进行了检查，但水是一个值得更多关注的领域。水务部门拥有广泛的金属管道网络，越来越依赖远程信息收集和实时控制。过去两年的干旱以及内陆和沿海的大范围洪灾证明了有效管理水的重要性。此外，水务部门使用超高频无线电通信作为其业务和基础设施的组成部分。由于空间天气能够通过修改和干扰地球电离层来影响信号的传播，这是一种间接的方式，空间天气可以通过这种方式对水利部门的运营和基础设施产生不利影响。阿特金斯是这项工作的主要利益相关者，目前阿特金斯正在与主要的自来水公司客户就这一问题进行联系。更广泛的利益攸关方范围将包括环境署(作为资产管理和监管机构)、Ofwat、饮用水监察局、所有水务公司和水务公司供应，包括顾问和资产供应链。

Space Weather disruption of the near-Earth space- and ground-based systems is now accepted as having significant socio-economic impact , and is included in the UK National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies as a medium-high likelihood and medium impact civil emergency. Specifically, the UK National Risk Register identifies that "(c)urrent understanding is that a severe space weather event could have impacts upon a range of technologies and infrastructure, including power networks, satellite services, transport and digital control components" and that any industry relying on satellite services, that "(s)evere space weather can interrupt satellite services including Global Navigation Satellite Systems, communications, and Earth observation and imaging systems by damaging the space-based hardware, distorting the satellite signal or increasing the errors in ground-based receivers."The potential impacts of space weather on technological infrastructures, including power grids, satellite and ground communications and navigation systems, have generated world-wide interest at government levels in developing both forecasting and mitigation techniques and strategies. Indeed, the UK government is now seeking to establish a centre for space weather forecasting within the Met Office, who represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting terrestrial weather and can apply their 150 year heritage in forecasting to the field of space weather. The effects of extreme space weather can only be estimated since we do not know it's full extent. However, the potential total cost of an extreme Space Weather event has been estimated as around $2 Trillion in year 1 in the U.S. alone, with a 4-10 year recovery period . Quantifying the effects of Space Weather in all its forms is therefore of paramount importance. Less work has been undertaken in wider infrastructure sectors i.e. beyond those that coincide with technological infrastructures discussed above such as electricity distribution, communications and aviation. However, other infrastructure sectors exhibit important vulnerabilities to space weather, both being dependent on these technologies (e.g. GNSS, radio communication) through a disturbed ionosphere but also through sector-specific vulnerabilities. For example, Atkins has recently undertaken a study in relation to rail infrastructure, which has specific communication technologies and signal networks that are vulnerable to space weather.Therefore there is a need to consider sector vulnerability in more detail and this is particularly important for critical national infrastructure. Whilst much of this infrastructure has been examined, water is an area which merits increased attention. The water sector has extensive metal pipeline networks and is increasingly dependent on remote information collection and real-time control. The last two years of drought and extensive inland and coastal flooding has demonstrated the importance of effectively managing water. Moreover, the water sector uses UHF radio communication as an integral part of their operations and infrastructure. Since space weather is able to influence the propagation of signals through the modification and disturbing of the Earth's ionosphere, this represents an indirect way by which space weather can adversely influence the water sector operations and infrastructure.Atkins is the main stakeholder for this work, and Atkins is currently liaising with major water company clients on this issue. The wider stakeholder sphere will include the Environment Agency (as an asset manager and regulator), Ofwat, the Drinking Water Inspectorate, all water companies and water company supplies including consultants and the asset supply chain.