Developing an integrated framework for investigating biodiversity responses to global environmental change

尽管人们普遍认识到人类的生存和生态过程的维持依赖于对生物多样性的有效保护，但生物多样性在世界范围内仍在继续下降。一个主要的挑战是了解生物多样性是如何对全球环境变化做出反应的，这样我们就可以预测未来保护威胁的影响并为之做好准备。由于气温上升、干旱和极端事件频发，气候变化将产生一系列新的选择压力，迫使许多物种迁移寻找合适的环境或适应环境。人为的栖息地丧失和土地利用变化可能会加剧这些压力，限制个体的迁徙及其在新地区定居的能力。物种是否能对这些威胁作出反应取决于它们对变化的敏感性，它们适应或调整新环境条件的能力，它们迁移的能力，以及变化的速度和幅度。由于物种的反应取决于多种因素，研究它们的反应需要来自不同研究领域的不同工具的组合。该项目的目的是通过将遗传工具与生态学、地理数据和计算机建模相结合，建立一种研究生物多样性对全球变化响应的新方法。本项目以欧洲几种濒危森林蝙蝠为研究对象，旨在为其在全球变化下的保护提供依据。蝙蝠是生态系统的重要组成部分，通过抑制害虫种群对农业经济做出贡献。由于其多样性高、栖息地广泛、作为顶级捕食者的角色以及对土地利用变化的敏感性，蝙蝠可以很好地指示环境和其他野生动物的状况。因此，蝙蝠为研究全球变化的后果提供了一个很好的模型系统。据预测，未来的气候变化将影响许多欧洲蝙蝠的分布，并可能导致其遗传多样性的严重丧失。森林蝙蝠可能对未来的变化特别敏感，因为整个欧洲的森林高度破碎化；一些已经与它们的人口减少有关的事情，可能会限制它们未来向气候适宜地区迁移的能力。因此，为了为这一弱势群体设计长期保护策略，了解气候和环境如何影响它们的分布和在景观中移动的能力，以及它们对环境变化的遗传反应是至关重要的。拟议的项目建立在我独立研究生涯中开发的研究计划的基础上，并将受益于布里斯托尔大学现有的专业知识和最先进的设施，以及项目合作伙伴的广泛专业知识。我将首先使用生态和数学建模方法来研究气候变化和栖息地丧失将如何相互作用，影响所有欧洲森林蝙蝠的未来分布。我将以两种具有不同分布和生态的蝙蝠（Barbastella barbastellus和Myotis escalerai）为重点，从它们的不同气候梯度调查种群。为了理解是什么驱动了对全球变化的进化反应，我将使用下一代测序来研究与种群适应当前环境条件有关的基因。我将开发新的建模工具，将这些地方遗传适应与面临栖息地丧失的人口对未来气候变化的反应联系起来，并预测全球变化的后果。这将使我能够评估长期种群生存的可能性，并确定适当的保护措施。这个项目的一个重要方面是它对我们如何管理环境的影响，因此它包括发展创新的方法来转化科学发现，并将为决策者、规划者和保护管理者提供资源。

Biodiversity continues to decline worldwide even though it is widely recognised that human survival and the maintenance of ecological processes rely on its effective conservation. A major challenge is to understand how biodiversity responds to global environmental change so we can predict and prepare for the effects of future conservation threats. Climate change will produce a range of new selection pressures due to rising temperatures and increased frequency of droughts and extreme events, forcing many species to move in search of suitable conditions or adapt. Anthropogenic habitat loss and land use changes are likely to intensify these pressures and limit the movement of individuals and their ability to colonise new areas. Whether species can respond to these threats depends on their sensitivity to change, their ability to adapt or adjust to new environmental conditions, their ability to move away, and the rate and magnitude of change. As species' responses depend on a multitude of factors, studying their responses requires a combination of different tools from different research fields. The aim of this project is to establish a new way of studying the responses of biodiversity to global change by combining genetic tools with ecology, geographical data and computer modelling.This project focuses on several threatened European forest bat species with the aim of providing the evidence base for their conservation under global change. Bats are an important part of ecological systems and contribute to the agricultural economy through suppressing insect pest populations. Because of their high diversity, wide habitat use, role as top predators and sensitivity to land use changes, bats can be good indicators of the state of the environment and other wildlife. As such bats offer a good model system for studying the consequences of global change. Future climate change is predicted to affect the distribution of many European bats and may result in high losses of their genetic diversity. Forest bats may be particularly sensitive to future changes because of the high extent of forest fragmentation across Europe; something that has already been linked to their population declines and is likely to limit their ability to move to climatically suitable areas in the future. Therefore in order to design long-term conservation strategies for this vulnerable group it is crucial to understand how climate and the environment affect their distribution and ability to move across the landscape, and what are their genetic responses to environmental change.The proposed project builds on the research programme developed throughout my independent research career and will benefit from available expertise and state-of-the-art facilities at Bristol and the wide diversity of expertise of project partners. I will first use ecological and mathematical modelling approaches to study how climate change and habitat loss will interact to affect the future distribution of all European forest bats. Focusing on two bat species with different distributions and ecology (Barbastella barbastellus and Myotis escalerai) I will survey populations from across their climatic gradients. To understand what drives evolutionary responses to global change I will use next generation sequencing to study the genes involved in adaptations of populations to current environmental conditions. I will develop new modelling tools to relate these local genetic adaptations to the response of populations to future climate change in face of habitat loss and to predict the consequences of global change. This will allow me to assess the likelihood of long-term population survival and to identify adequate conservation measures. An important aspect of this project is its impact on how we manage our environment, and therefore it includes the development of innovative ways to translate scientific findings and will provide resources for use by policy makers, planners and conservation managers.