Cities and Sea Level Rise: Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Toolkits

在一个城市人口不断增加的世界里，其中大部分集中在沿海城市，气候变化导致的海平面上升的预测不仅对可持续性，而且对城市的生存构成了额外的-有时是巨大的-威胁。奥雅纳在世界各地与沿海洪水和气候变化相关的许多领域拥有丰富的经验和专业知识。然而，有必要建立一个一致的方法来进行这些研究，利用奥雅纳已经在个别情况下产生的优秀工作，建立在坚实的科学知识和有效地交付。奥雅纳水务、规划、地理信息系统、安全关键设计和工程以及奥雅纳国际发展团队一直在开发具有共同议程的流程和工具，即应对未来冲击和挑战的能力。海平面上升是世界各地城市面临的最突出挑战之一，奥雅纳在这一领域不仅拥有良好的业绩记录，而且具有明显的市场兴趣。在英国，奥雅纳一直是环境署和其他机构洪水风险管理框架的领先供应商，从事几个重大的沿海洪水风险项目，如船体（英国第二大洪水风险区，仅次于伦敦，有超过100，000处房产处于危险之中）和布里斯托（在易受洪水影响的土地上提出了显着的经济增长）。我们正在这两个城市进行海平面上升的长期规划。基础设施中的水务团队开发了市场领先的工具和知识，用于评估经济损失（使用国际知名的英国洪水灾害研究中心深度损害数据），洪水对生命的风险，洪水建模，防御设计以及选项评估中的环境和社会问题。除此之外，奥雅纳水务团队最近还为CIRIA提交了一份关于基础设施对气候变化脆弱性的报告。IPCC最新报告（AR 5）强调了海平面上升的全球威胁，这不仅需要采取综合措施保护财产和企业，还需要保护城市基础设施和服务。在奥雅纳内部，有许多工具可以用于这一目的，例如评估互联基础设施风险的方法，塞拉菲尔德复原力团队的危害和风险评估方法，评估环境资本的方法以及适应不断变化的环境的新工程技术。然而，这些工具和方法目前位于奥雅纳国际多学科团队和办事处的不同团队中。该项目旨在将它们整合成一个全面的、可访问的、以项目交付为重点的方法，可以被世界各地任何办公室的任何Arup团队应用。为了补充Arup丰富的知识，我们与利兹大学和伯克贝克学院（伦敦大学）合作，以增强知识并验证我们的工作。我们与伯克贝克协会还包括老自治领大学在美国，这与诺福克，弗吉尼亚州，在美国海平面上升风险的第二大城市有着密切的联系。这些大学已同意分享它们现有的知识和联系，包括利兹大学已在国际上测试的海平面上升脆弱性评估工具，以及与诺福克和试图处理海平面上升问题的各相互关联的当局的联系和经验，该项目认识到，工具、方法和理论在真实的世界中成功应用时具有真正的价值。为此，我们与面临海平面上升严重挑战的全球主要城市达成了承诺，共享数据，并允许奥雅纳对我们的工具和方法进行台架测试。这些城市包括：诺福克（美国）、船体和布里斯托，可能还有纽约和香港，奥雅纳在这些城市拥有海岸管理经验。

In a world with continuously increasing urban population, much of which concentrates in coastal cities, the predictions of sea level rise resulting from climate change pose an additional - and at times dramatic - threat not just to sustainability but also to cities' survival. Arup has a wealth of experience and expertise in many of the areas related to coastal flooding and climate change around the world. However, there is a need for creating a consistent approach to such studies, taking advantage of the excellent work that Arup already produces in individual cases, founded on solid scientific knowledge and delivered efficiently. Arup teams in Water, Planning, GIS, Safety Critical Design and Engineering and Arup International Development have been developing processes and tools that share a common agenda, ie resilience to future shocks and challenges. Sea level rise is one of the most prominent challenges faced by cities around the world and is an area where Arup has not only a proven track record but also a clear market interest.In the UK, Arup has been a leading supplier on the Environment Agency and other agencies' flood risk management frameworks, working on several significant coastal flood risk projects such as Hull (the 2nd largest flood risk area in the UK after London with over 100,000 properties at risk) and Bristol (where significant economic growth is proposed on flood vulnerable land). We are working in both these cities on long term planning for sea level rise. The Water team within Infrastructure has developed market-leading tools and knowledge in the assessment of economic damage (using the internationally renowned UK Flood Hazard Research Centre depth damage data), risks to life from flooding, flood modelling, defence design and environmental and social issues in option appraisal. Alongside this, the Arup Water team has recently delivered a report for CIRIA on infrastructure vulnerability to climate change. The global threat of sea level rise, emphasised by the latest IPCC report (AR5), demands an integrated approach not just to the protection of properties and businesses but also urban infrastructure and services. Within Arup there are many tools that exist that can be useful to this end, such as methods for assessing the risks to interconnected infrastructure, hazard and risk assessment methods from the Sellafield resilience team, approaches to value environmental capital and novel engineering techniques to adapt to a changing environment. However, these tools and approaches currently sit within different teams across Arup's international multi-disciplinary teams and offices. This project aims to bring them together into a comprehensive, accessible and project delivery focussed methodology that can be applied by any Arup team in any office around the world.To complement Arup's wealth of knowledge we have teamed up with the University of Leeds and Birkbeck College (University of London) to enhance knowledge and verify our work. Our association with Birkbeck also includes Old Dominion University in the USA, which has strong links with Norfolk, Virginia, the second largest city at sea level rise risk in the USA. These universities have agreed to share their existing knowledge and contacts, including a sea level rise vulnerability assessment tool already tested internationally by Leeds University and the contacts and experience with Norfolk and the various interconnected authorities trying to deal with the issues of sea level rise.The project recognises that tools, methods and theories have true value when they are applied successfully in the real world. To this end, we have established commitments from key cities around the world facing serious challenges from sea level rise to share data and allow Arup to bench test our tools and methods. These cities include: Norfolk (USA), Hull and Bristol and possibly New York and Hong Kong, where Arup has experience in coastal management.