TESTING A CAUSAL MODEL OF COMMUNITY-LEVEL ALCOHOL USE, PROBLEMS, AND PREVENTION

第三代基于PC的酒精使用和滥用计算机模型是 在PRC开发。 该模型将再现复杂的，20年 圣地亚哥县在酒类零售活动方面的历史， 酒精消费模式，酒后驾车行为，社会规范， 和监管控制。 发表的研究结果、调查数据和 二次数据分析的结果用于定义和 在数学上指定变量之间的关系 模型子系统。 通过反复的设计过程， 测试和重新设计，该模型正在朝着未来的方向进行改进 当它可以提供给研究人员和预防专家， 了解复杂社区动态的可靠、全面的工具 以及估计旨在减少酒精的干预措施的影响- 相关问题。 一旦模型结果与实际数据一致 已经实现，圣地亚哥县模型将用于模拟 1992-2001年期间替代性可行预防措施的影响 干预措施。 本项目（1992年12月1日开始，11月30日结束， 1997年）提出了两个重要的研究问题：（1）将 模型在应用于其他社区时会产生一致的结果？以及（2） 需要什么样的结构变化来确保 其他社区的榜样？ 第二个问题是：如果一致性和 可以建立可转移性，还有哪些额外的模型增强功能 如果有的话，需要鼓励社区将该模型用作工具， 用于在实际计划之前评估替代预防方案 实施？ 这些问题将在第四代努力中得到解决。 的 将在12个不同的社区测试和完善这一模式。 的 将根据三个标准选择社区： 人口组成，国家酒精饮料控制结构，以及 这是一种侧重于预防方案拟订的社区组织。 每个 一年后，该模型将首先使用来自三个国家的本地数据进行初始化， 社区，然后对一致性进行基准测试。 一旦模型 对目标社区、当地 将对预防专家进行使用培训。 后续本地使用 将作为流程的一部分进行跟踪和记录 评估的目的是（a）确定在什么条件下模型是 （B）确定如何使 模型更加用户友好和有用，而不牺牲其一致性 和可转移性。

A third-generation PC-based computer model of alcohol use and abuse is being developed at PRC. The model will reproduce the complex, 20-year history of San Diego County with regard to alcohol retail activity, alcohol consumption patterns, drinking & driving behavior, social norms, and regulatory controls. Published research findings, survey data, and results from secondary data analyses are used to define and mathematically specify relationships among variables within and across the model subsystems. Through an iterative process of design, congruence testing, and redesign, the model is being refined toward the future point when it can be offered to researchers and prevention specialists as a reliable, comprehensive tool for understanding complex community dynamics and for estimating impacts of interventions intended to reduce alcohol- related problems. Once congruence between model results and actual data has been achieved, the San Diego County model will be used to simulate the impact over the period 1992-2001 of alternative feasible prevention interventions. The current project (beginning December 1, 1992 and ending November 30, 1997) proposes to answer two important research questions: (1) will the model yield congruent results when applied to other communities? and (2) what structural changes are needed to insure the transferability of the model to other communities? A secondary question is: if congruency and transferability can be established, what additional model enhancements are required, if any, to encourage communities to use the model as a tool for evaluating alternative prevention options prior to actual program implementation? These questions will be addressed in a fourth-generation effort. The model will be tested and refined in 12 diverse communities. the communities will be selected according to three criteria: local population composition, state alcohol beverage control structure, and type of community organization focused on prevention programming. Each year, the model will first be initialized with local data from three communities, then benchmark-tested for congruence. Once the model performs with demonstrated accuracy for a target community, local prevention specialists will be trained in its use. Subsequent local use of the model will be tracked and documented as part of a process evaluation aimed at (a) determining under what conditions the model is most frequently and effectively used and (b) identifying ways to make the model more user-friendly and useful, without sacrificing its congruency and transferability.