Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment (CHANSE) for water management under uncertainty in the Indo-Gangetic Plain

印度恒河平原(IGP)的水资源管理是一项巨大的挑战，因为该盆地在规模上的独特性、生物物理的复杂性及其体制和社会经济特征的动态变化。为了粮食安全而集约化农业，再加上无人管理和效率低下的灌溉用水，以及管理不善的废物管理做法，已导致水资源在数量和质量上退化，危及生态系统服务和人类健康。大量用水与能源部门直接相关，并对碳排放总量有很大贡献。此外，密集的城市化减少了地下水的渗透和补给，对流域的水文也产生了影响。归根结底，与季风循环有关的水需求和季节性供应之间的不平衡，以及地表水和地下水利用战略协调规划的困难，都对政府间水文计划的水管理提出了挑战。土地利用和土地覆盖的变化可以改变蒸散量，可能会反馈到大规模的水文气候过程，此外，还会扰乱流域脆弱的人-自然系统。由于当地法规和管理的原因，政府间海洋学计划的水资源管理面临着额外的困难。缺乏跨部门合作导致对稀缺水资源的竞争，而政府对灌溉用水和电力的大量补贴可能导致资源的严重浪费。最后，该流域的地下水资源在很大程度上是灌溉和城乡供水的主要来源，由多个机构独立管理。考虑到预期的人口增长和气候变化的影响，很明显，在印度实现水安全是一项日益严峻的挑战，需要跨部门、当地社区、机构和学术界的跨学科合作。该项目汇集了来自英国(伦敦帝国理工学院、埃克塞特大学和英国地质调查局)和印度(IISC班加罗尔、IIT孟买、IITM浦那和ATREE班加罗尔)机构的研究人员，与国际(教科文组织)和当地(CEEW)非政府组织合作，支持政府间海洋学计划的水资源管理。该项目将为改进农业、饮用水、生态系统和其他需求的用水分配决策提供信息。该项目建立在最近英国/印度资助的合作伙伴参与的联合研究的基础上，该研究开发了一系列高度相关的数据集、工具和模型。具体地说，我们将：(I)利用完全耦合的陆地-地下水模拟系统，估计当前和未来短期天气预报下的地表和地下水可用性，以及IGP内的人为活动；(Ii)通过结合新的消费者和生态流量需求模块，调查自然系统内用水和需求的相互作用在空间和时间上的传播；(Iii)利用天气研究和预报模型与社区土地模型4.0版相结合的方式，为IGP提供十年、季节性和亚季节性季风降雨和洪水预报的区域预测，为制定替代水资源管理战略提供信息；(Iv)将对人类和自然系统的更好理解转化为政府间地球科学计划在水、粮食和生态安全方面的水资源管理规划。该项目将利用受这些问题影响的甘达克河次流域作为了解进程的个案研究集水区。将在政府间地球物理计划流域一级分析水资源管理战略和水资源分配对当地气候的反馈。

Managing water resources in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is a tremendous challenge because of the basin's uniqueness in scale, biophysical complexity and the dynamics of its institutional and socio-economic characteristics. Agricultural intensification for food security, combined with unmanaged and inefficient water abstraction for irrigation, and poorly controlled waste management practices, has led to degradation of water resources both in terms of quantity and quality, endangering ecosystem services and human health. Extensive water use is directly linked to the energy sector, and contributes significantly to total carbon emissions. The hydrology of the basin is additionally affected by intensive urbanisation that reduces infiltration and recharge to groundwater. Ultimately, water management in the IGP is challenged by the imbalance between water demand and seasonal availability related to the monsoon cycle, and difficulties in coordinated planning of surface water and groundwater use strategies. Land use and land cover changes, which can modify evapotranspiration, may feed back to large-scale hydro-climatic processes and additionally, disturb the fragile human-natural system of the basin. Management of water resources in the IGP faces additional difficulties because of the local regulations and governance. Lack of cross-sectorial cooperation leads to competition for scarce water resources, while significant governmental subsidies for irrigation water and electricity potentially lead to significant wastage of resources. Finally, the basin's groundwater resources that are, to a large extent, a primary source for irrigation and rural and urban water supply, are independently managed by multiple agencies. Considering expected population growth and impacts of climate change, it is clear that achieving water security in India and especially, the IGP, is a growing challenge that requires interdisciplinary collaboration across sectors, local communities, institutions and academia. This project brings together researchers from leading UK (Imperial College London, University of Exeter and British Geological Survey) and Indian (IISc Bangalore, IIT Bombay, IITM Pune, and ATREE Bangalore) institutions, in partnership with international (UNESCO) and local (CEEW) non-governmental organisations, to support water management in the IGP.The overarching aim of the research is to improve mapping and quantification of dominant interactions and feedbacks between human activities and the hydro-meteorological system of the IGP. This project will provide information for improved decision-making on water allocation for agriculture, drinking water, ecosystems and other needs. The project builds on recent joint UK/India-funded research involving the partners, which has developed a series of highly relevant datasets, tools and models. Specifically, we will: (i) estimate surface and groundwater availability under current and future short-term weather predictions and anthropogenic activities within the IGP using a fully coupled, land surface-groundwater modelling setup; (ii) investigate the propagation, in space and time, of interactions of water uses and needs within the natural system by integrating novel consumer and ecological flow demand modules; (iii) provide regional predictions of decadal, seasonal and sub-seasonal monsoon rainfall and flood forecasting for the IGP, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Community Land Model version 4.0 to inform development of alternative water management strategies; (iv) translate the improved understanding of Human And Natural Systems into IGP's water management planning for water, food and ecological security. The project will use the River Gandak sub-basin, which has been impacted by these issues, as a case-study catchment for process-understanding. Water management strategies and feedbacks of water allocation to local climate will be analysed at the IGP basin level.