D-Risk: an innovative decision-support tool for improving drought risk and abstraction management for UK irrigated agribusinesses

灌溉是作物生产的重要组成部分，以满足超市和零售商在降雨不足时对优质农产品的需求。在干旱条件下，提供充分灌溉的能力可能受到取水许可证条件的限制，从而对作物产量和质量以及农业收入产生重大影响。作为抽象改革过程的一部分，环境署（EA）提议改变农业有时限许可证（TLLs）的条件，因为它们需要更新。这些条件将减少许可抽取的水量，以满足水框架指令（WFD）设定的目标。这将对依赖直接取水的地区的软水果、田间蔬菜、沙拉和马铃薯种植企业构成重大的商业用水风险。灌溉农民必须了解这些变化对其取水许可证、风险管理以及其企业的竞争力和经济可行性的影响。克兰菲尔德最近的研究表明，在“设计”干旱年份，英格兰灌溉的总净效益约为2.19亿英镑，这表明缺乏灌溉水可能给农民带来巨大的商业风险。 虽然EA最初计划立即采取行动，但它已同意将其实施推迟到2018年。这提供了一个宝贵的机会，支持企业了解拟议的改革对其农业企业未来干旱风险管理的影响。然而，目前还没有工具可以支持灌溉农业企业这样做。鉴于灌溉对许多农业企业的经济重要性，我们建议使用从NERC资助的HistoricDroughs（NE/L010070/1）和MaRIUS（NE/L010186/1）项目中最近和正在进行的研究中获得的见解，以帮助农业企业了解在干旱风险管理的背景下拟议的许可证变更对其业务的影响。特别是，我们将结合使用农场数据、将作物类型与灌溉需求联系起来的现有建模工具以及这些项目中覆盖整个二十世纪的历史重建天气数据，我们将与我们的主要项目合作伙伴合作开发一种创新的基于网络的工具（暂命名为D风险），将允许灌溉农业综合企业评估：1）拟议的抽象许可证改革将如何影响其在2018年后续期时的许可量; 2）许可量的减少将如何通过改变对干旱风险的态度来影响当前的农场商业计划，根据历史天气条件下许可水量和灌溉需求之间的平衡;3）如何最好地调整其农场业务计划，以实现可接受的未来干旱和水资源风险水平;该项目将涉及盎格鲁地区Cam和伊利乌塞流域的一个小型但高度活跃的项目合作伙伴财团，其中许可证续期变更将首先由EA实施。他们的参与在每个工作包中都是明确的，他们的投入是项目的组成部分。将结合与全国农民联盟和英国灌溉协会共同组织的研讨会，使用案例研究，描述如何使用D-Risk基于网络的工具来修改我们的项目合作伙伴的业务规划，以改善他们的干旱风险管理，推广D-Risk工具的使用，3500个在盎格鲁地区以外拥有TLLs的灌溉农业综合企业，一旦EA程序开始推出，这些企业将受到影响，从而提高英国食品供应链的经济竞争力。

Irrigation is an essential component of crop production to meet supermarket and retailer demands for premium quality produce when rainfall is insufficient. Under drought conditions, the ability to provide sufficient irrigation can be constrained by abstraction licence conditions, with consequent important impacts on crop yield and quality and farm revenue. As part of the abstraction reform process, the Environment Agency (EA) are proposing to change the conditions of agricultural time-limited licences (TLLs) as they are due for renewal. These conditions would reduce the amount of water licenced for abstraction in order to meet objectives set by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This will represent a major business water risk to the soft fruit, field vegetable, salads and potato growing businesses in regions that are dependent on direct abstraction. It is vital for irrigated farmers to understand the implications of these changes to their abstraction licences, to their risk management and to the competitiveness and economic viability of their businesses. Recent work at Cranfield has shown that the total net benefits of irrigation in England in a 'design' dry year are around £219 million, demonstrating the substantial business risk that a lack of irrigation water can pose to farmers. Although the EA originally planned to take immediate action, it has agreed to delay its implementation until 2018. This provides a valuable opportunity to support businesses in understanding the repercussions of the proposed reforms for the future drought risk management of their farming enterprises. However, there are currently no tools available to support irrigated farming businesses to do this. Given the economic importance of irrigation to many farm businesses, we propose to use insights gained from recent and ongoing research within the NERC-funded HistoricDroughts (NE/L010070/1) and MaRIUS (NE/L010186/1) projects to help farm businesses understand the consequences of the proposed licence changes to their business in the context of drought risk management. In particular, using a combination of farm data, pre-existing modelling tools that relate crop type to irrigation need and historical re-constructed weather data covering the whole of the twentieth century from these projects, we will work with our key Project Partners to develop an innovative web-based tool (provisionally named D-Risk) that will allow irrigated agribusinesses to evaluate:1) How the proposed abstraction licence reforms will affect their licensed volumes upon renewal, post 2018;2) How the reduced licensed volumes will impact on current farm business plans through changing attitudes to drought risk, based on the balance between licensed volumes and irrigation need under historical weather;3) How best to adapt their farm business plans to achieve an acceptable future level of drought and water resource risk;The project will involve a small but highly active consortium of project partners in the Cam and Ely Ouse catchment in Anglian region where the licence renewal changes will first be implemented by the EA. Their engagement is explicit throughout each of the work packages and their input is integral to the project. Case Studies describing how the D-Risk web-based tool was used to revise our Project Partners' business planning to improve their drought risk management will be used, in conjunction with workshops co-organised with the National Farmers Union and UK Irrigation Association, to promote the use of the D-Risk tool to the >3500 irrigated agribusinesses with TLLs outside Anglian region that will subsequently be affected once the roll out of the EA procedure commences, thereby contributing to the economic competiveness of the UK food supply chain.