Socio-ecological response and resilience to El Niño shocks :The case of coffee and cocoa agroforestry landscapes in Africa

在许多发展中国家，农村小农农林复合景观是数百万家庭非常重要的生计来源，但也受到生态和气候因素的制约。我们对这些景观如何应对环境冲击和长期变化的了解很差，但可以通过使用结合生态、气候和社会科学方法的多学科方法来显著改善(Fisher等人，2014年)。将这些学科结合到可管理的研究项目中，并找到适当的资金来支持它们，仍然是一个严峻的挑战。由于我们在监测埃塞俄比亚的咖啡种植景观和加纳的可可种植景观方面的工作，我们特别有能力解决这一知识匮乏的问题。这两项研究都是ECOLIMITS项目的一部分，该项目由NERC/DFID生态系统服务和扶贫计划(ESPA)资助。这些研究集中在从天然林到高遮荫/低破碎化到低遮荫/高破碎化农用林场的经营强度梯度。我们对生态系统(农业如何受到生物多样性、生态系统进程和生态系统服务的影响和影响)和社会系统(农业如何与农村生计和贫困的多个层面相关，以及地方和国家机构如何改变这些关系)有了详细的了解。在过去的几个月里，与厄尔尼诺现象相关的严重干旱和气温上升影响了这两个地区。这给这两种景观带来了许多挑战，但也为研究农林复合景观对天气冲击的敏感性和复原力提供了难得的机会。在这项提案中，我们寻求通过这次厄尔尼诺事件监测生态系统服务和作物产量，直到2017年，并对家庭进行调查，以了解他们所经历的影响，并确定导致他们的复原力或脆弱性的关键因素。特别是，我们计划探索树木覆盖率、作物产量和气候冲击脆弱性之间的关系。我们的工作将直接为两国的区域和国家议程提供信息，以制定对环境冲击具有弹性的气候战略，从而在不断变化的环境中保持作物产量和农村生计。这项提议非常紧迫，因为需要资金在厄尔尼诺期间立即进行住户调查和生物多样性测量，并将生态监测维持到2017年年中，以评估恢复情况。

In many developing country contexts, rural smallholder agroforestry landscapes are very important sources of livelihoods for millions of households, but are also constrained by ecological and climatic factors. Our understanding of how these landscapes respond to environmental shocks and long-term change is poor, but can be significantly improved by using multidisciplinary approaches that incorporate ecological, climate and social science methods (Fisher et al 2014). Combining these disciplines into manageable research projects as well as finding appropriate funding to support them remains a serious challenge. We are exceptionally well placed to address this dearth of knowledge due to our work monitoring a coffee-farming landscape in Ethiopia and a cocoa-farming landscape in Ghana. Both studies are part of the ECOLIMITS project, funded by the NERC/DfID Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation programme (ESPA). These studies are focussed on gradients of management intensity from natural forest through high shade/low fragmentation to low shade/high fragmentation agroforest farms. We have gained a detailed understanding of the ecological system (how farming is affected by and affects biodiversity, ecosystem processes and ecosystem services) and the social system (how farming relates to rural livelihoods and multiple dimensions of poverty, and how these relationships are modified by local and national institutions). In the last few months, a strong El Niño-associated drought and increased temperatures have affected both regions. This has generated many challenges in both landscapes, but also provides a rare opportunity to study the sensitivity and resilience of agroforestry landscapes to weather shocks. In this proposal, we seek to monitor ecosystem services and crop yields through this El Niño event and beyond to 2017, and survey households to understand the impacts they have experienced as well as identify the key factors that lead to their resilience or vulnerability. In particular, we plan to explore the relationships between tree cover, crop yields and vulnerability to climate shocks. Our work will directly inform regional and national agendas in both countries to develop climate strategies that are resilient to environmental shocks, and hence maintain crop yields and rural livelihoods in a changing environment. The proposal is urgent because funds are needed to immediately conduct household surveys and biodiversity measurements during the El Niño, and maintain ecological monitoring to mid-2017 to assess recovery.