An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extra-tropical climate variability and extremes (INTEGRATE)

为了预测本世纪区域间联系的演变，了解它们在过去是如何演变的至关重要。这一点特别重要，因为干旱等极端情况受十年变化的影响。我们的研究是因为最近发现了青藏高原2000年降水重建与北半球温度之间的数十年联系。我们将远远超越这一初步发现，将从耦合气候模型和观测(仪器、树木年轮和文献记录)中获得的见解结合在一起，以确定在多个时间尺度上将热带季风和北方温带气候的可变性联系起来的大规模模式。我们将(1)更好地了解季风和温带地区(特别是北极)之间的遥相关，(2)评估气候模型再现包括区域极端情况在内的观察到的行为的能力，(3)探索驱动观察到的行为的机制，并了解这种联系在未来气候变化下可能如何演变，使用一系列模型的模拟。古气候记录，包括欧亚北极对温度敏感的树轮记录和来自亚洲季风区的对降水敏感的系列，为确定年度到数十年时间尺度上的联系提供了独特的机会。CMIP5和CMIP6“控制”和“最后千年”运行将用于评估模拟的非强迫变异性和对火山等强迫作用的响应，并考虑与季风、温带外和北极地区极端时期有关的海洋表面温度和大气环流模式。将结合外部强迫，对强加异常(例如，特定区域的海洋或陆地表面温度)进行新的模拟，以探索盆地范围的变化或陆地-表面相互作用在产生和同步年代际变化方面的作用。将利用模型模拟和我们对机制的更好理解来考虑对未来气候变化的影响。

In order to predict the evolution of inter-regional linkages this century, it is crucial to understand how they have evolved in the past. This is particularly important because extremes such as drought are modulated by decadal variability. Our study is motivated by recent identification of multidecadal links between 2000-year reconstructions of Tibetan Plateau precipitation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. We will go far beyond this initial finding by combining insights gained from coupled climate models and observations (instrumental, tree-ring and documentary records) to identify large-scale modes that link the variability of tropical monsoons and northern extratropical climates on multiple timescales. We will (i) better understand the teleconnections between monsoon and extratropical regions (with particular emphasis on the Arctic), (ii) evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce observed behaviour including regional extremes, (iii) explore mechanisms that drive the observed behaviour and understand how the linkages may evolve under future climate change using simulations with a hierarchy of models. Paleoclimate records, including temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from the Eurasian Arctic and precipitation-sensitive series from the Asian monsoon regions provide a unique opportunity to identify associations on annual to multidecadal timescales. CMIP5 and CMIP6 "control" and "last millennium" runs will be used to assess simulated unforced variability and response to forcings such as volcanoes and to consider sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns associated with periods of extremes in the monsoon, extratropical and Arctic regions. New simulations with imposed anomalies (e.g. sea or land surface temperatures in particular regions) in conjunction with external forcing will be designed to explore the roles of basin-wide changes or land-surface interactions in generating and synchronising decadal variability. Implications for future climate change will be considered using model simulations and our improved understanding of mechanisms.