Real-time Aftershock Forecasting in Turkey (RAFT)

安纳托利亚板块被困在欧亚构造板块和向北运动的阿拉伯板块之间，向西挤压形成了两个主要的地震断裂带，即北安纳托利亚断裂带和东安纳托利亚断裂带。在有记载的历史中，两者都曾引发过致命的地震。例如，安塔基亚城在公元115年和公元556年两次被毁，死亡人数可能超过50万人；在北部，1939年的埃尔津詹地震造成3万多人死亡，最近的伊兹米特和杜斯切地震造成1.8万多人死亡。在上个世纪，土耳其遭受了43次致命的地震，造成10万人死亡，平均每两年就会发生一次致命的地震。虽然预测地震是不可能的，但地震学中非常强大的统计规律和对大地震产生的复杂应力场的快速计算，使我们能够通过详细的、接近实时的地震观测，对可能发生余震的地方做出可靠的、基于物理的预测。在这个项目中，我们计划继续发展这门科学，以便应急管理人员能够在地震危机期间将基于科学的预测纳入业务决策。统计预报方法依赖于有关发展中的余震的位置和大小的准确、丰富的数据。正常的地震基础设施只能解决较大的事件，从而降低了统计的能力和稳定性。我们将购买并测试一个定制设计的完全专用的便携式地震台网，当与现有的土耳其地震台网结合时，将能够记录M bbbb2级地震。该系统将配备遥测技术，以便余震管理中心可以近乎实时地获得地震目录。虽然统计技术已被证明能够很好地预测余震发生的可能性，但额外的工作将使许多必须作出的决定实现自动化，例如，在危机期间何时采用更复杂的余震模型。这种主观的决定对于确保决策过程是由物理而不是情感来指导，当然，最终将由训练有素的地震学家来领导，这将是极其重要的。在最近的尼泊尔地震危机期间，阿尔斯特大学小组向政府和一个主要的非政府组织提供了近乎实时的预测，其中包括地震时空密度图以及潜在的应力分布，以提供对未来事件空间结构的定性预测。这项工作将根据不断发展的速率和状态摩擦理论，对余震概率进行更定量的空间估计，这也可以自动提供主观风险评估。为了对整个过程进行严格的测试，我们将在项目的最后6个月发生中度地震后，部署网络并测试项目期间发展的协议的各个方面。这一实地试验将由一个由科学家和人道主义工作者组成的国际咨询小组进行观察，该小组将在项目早期成立。

Trapped between the Eurasian tectonic plate and the northward moving Arabian plate, the Anatolian plate is being squeezed to the west forming two major earthquake fault zones, the North and East Anatolian Fault Zones. Throughout recorded history both have generated fatal earthquakes. The city of Antakya, for example, was destroyed twice in 115 and in 556 probably killing more than 500000 people; to the north the 1939 Erzincan earthquake killed more than 30,000 people and more recently the Izmit and Duzce earthquakes together killed more than 18000. In the last century Turkey has suffered 43 fatal earthquakes killing in the region of 100,000 people and, on average, we can expect a killer earthquake every 2 years.While it is not possible to predict earthquakes, very robust statistical laws in seismology and the rapid calculation of complex stress fields produced by large earthquakes, has allowed us to make dependable, physics-based forecasts, resulting from detailed, near real-time seismological observations, of where aftershocks are likely to occur. In this project we plan to continue to develop this science so that emergency managers can include science-based forecasts in operational decision-making during an earthquake crisis.Statistical forecast methods depend on accurate, plentiful data on the location and sizes of the developing aftershocks. Normal seismic infrastructure is only capable resolving larger events, reducing the power and stability of the statistics. We will purchase and test a custom designed completely dedicated portable seismic network which, when combined with the existing Turkish seismological network, will be capable of recording earthquakes of M >2. This system will be equipped with telemetry so that the seismic catalogues are available at an Aftershock Management Centre in near real-time.While the statistical techniques have already been shown to produce good forecasts of the probability of aftershocks, additional work will allow the automation of many of the decisions which must be made concerning, for example, when to move to a more complex aftershock model during a crisis. Such subjective decisions will be extremely important in making sure that physics, not emotion, guide the decision-making process, which will, of course, ultimately be led by a trained seismologist.During the recent Nepal earthquake crisis the University of Ulster group provided near real-time forecasts both to government and to a major NGO which included earthquake space-time density maps as well as underlying stress distributions to provide qualitative forecasts of the spatial structure of future events. This work will be developed to produce more quantitative spatial estimates of aftershock probability, based on the evolving theories of rate and state friction, which again, can be automated to provide subjective risk evaluations. So that the entire process can be rigorously tested, we will deploy the network and test every aspect of the protocols which evolve during the project, following a moderate earthquake occurring in the last 6 months of the project. This field trial will be observed by an International Advisory Panel of scientists and humanitarian workers which will be constituted early in the project.