Foundations for climate resilient and sustainable growing settlements (U-RES)

城市人口特别容易受到与气候变化有关的极端天气事件的影响，尤其是热浪和洪水。这种脆弱性是由多种因素共同造成的，包括现有的不平等、人口众多和高度暴露于某些类型的环境危害。随着城市从较小的定居点和附近的邻近城市发展而来，很少有设计来确保它们建立在适当的位置，新的基础设施对当前和未来的极端天气事件有足够的弹性，治理系统和增长考虑到边缘化群体的具体需求。相反，城市发展往往显得混乱无序，使市民，尤其是那些最边缘化的人，陷入高度脆弱的境地。如果我们能够影响新兴定居点在其增长轨迹开始时如何转变为城市和特大城市，即使是微小的影响，对复原力和福祉的积极影响将是巨大的。但是，新城市是如何以及在哪里出现的，当它们在不断变化的气候中扩展以适应极端天气时，影响它们设计的机会是什么？尤其是非洲的城市化正在迅猛发展。关于如何进行发展的决定有时间限制的干预点。非洲目前还没有预先确定的发展道路，这为施加影响提供了独特的机会。非洲的倡议也越来越迫切和渴望实现可持续发展，支持实施《联合国巴黎协定》和可持续发展目标，特别是关于可持续城市和社区的目标11。在此，我们将重点关注为提高非洲的气候适应能力和可持续城市化奠定基础。U-RES汇集了丰富的学术和非学术专家团队，探索城市化早期阶段的多个方面：通过自然环境研究委员会（NERC）的镜头，U-RES将研究城市化的现状，以及这与预计的气候变化风险增加是否一致。这将通过遥感和地理信息系统分析技术来评估土地覆盖的变化。此外，IPCC用于预测气候变化的模式模拟将针对两个与风险相关的气候指数进行分析，其中一个与热浪有关，另一个与暴雨（洪水风险的驱动因素）有关。该工作流程将概述非洲的城市化模式，并初步了解当前城市化与极端气候事件风险之间的关系。通过经济和社会研究理事会（ESRC）的视角，联合国环境规划署将进行城市治理案例研究，其中两个在南非德班，两个在肯尼亚伊索罗。这些案例研究将提供对决策者如何收集和使用信息的实地了解，并提供如何修改信息以更好地考虑边缘化群体需求的见解。通过艺术与人文研究委员会（AHRC）的镜头，U-RES将研究人类住区位置随时间变化的考古证据，以及这些变化与环境因素的关系。这将通过把重点放在埃及和美索不达米亚来完成，这两个国家是非洲发生的环境变化的很好的类似物。这里将使用过去的类似物来研究决策过程如何受到一系列驱动因素所提供的机会和限制的复杂相互关系的影响，而不是长期的社会传统、意识形态和宗教。来自治理案例研究的访谈材料将进一步用于发展善治的叙述，并提高对证据对指导城市化决策重要性的认识。

Urban populations are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events related to climate change, especially heat waves and floods. This vulnerability is caused by a combination of factors including existing inequalities, high population, and high exposure to certain types of environmental hazards. As cities emerge from smaller settlements and nearby adjacent cities, little design goes into ensuring that they are established in appropriate locations, that new infrastructure is adequately resilient to current and future extreme weather events, and that governance systems and growth take into account the specific needs of marginalised groups. Instead, urban development often appears chaotic and unplanned, locking citizens, particularly those who are most marginalised, into high states of vulnerability. If we could influence how burgeoning settlements turn into cities and megacities at the start of their growth trajectory, even marginally, the positive repercussions for resilience and wellbeing would be colossal. But just how and where do new cities emerge, and what are the opportunities for influencing their design while they expand to be resilient to extreme weather in a changing climate?African urbanization, in particular, is exploding. Decisions on how development will take place have time-limited intervention points. There are as yet no pre-determined pathways for development in Africa, providing a unique opportunity for influence. There is also a growing imperative and desire from African initiatives to develop sustainably, to support the implementation of the UN Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), particularly Goal 11 on Sustainable cities and communities. Here we will focus on setting the foundations for increasing climate resilience and sustainable urbanisation in African. U-RES brings together a rich team of academic and non-academic experts, to explore multiple aspects of the very early stages of urbanisation: Through the lenses of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), U-RES will examine the current state of urbanisation and how this aligns, or not, with the projected increasing risks from climate change. This will be done through remote sensing and GIS analysis techniques to assess changes in land-cover. In addition, model simulations used by the IPCC to project climate change will be analysed for two risk-related climatic indices, one around heat waves and one around heavy rainfall (a driver of flood risk). This workstream will provide an overview of the patterns of urbanisation in Africa, and an initial picture of the alignment of current urbanisation with risks of extreme climatic events. Through the lenses of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), U-RES will conduct case studies of urban governance, two around Durban South Africa, and two in Isolo Kenya. These case studies will provide on-the-ground understanding into how information is gathered and used by decision makers, and provide insights into how this can be modified to better take into account the needs of marginalised groups. Through the lenses of the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC), U-RES will examine archaeological evidence of changing positions of human settlements over time, and how the changes related to environmental factors. This will be done by focusing on Egypt and Mesopotamia, which are a good analogues for environmental changes occurring in Africa. Analogues from the past will be used here to examine how decision-making process is influenced by complex interrelationships of opportunities and constraints afforded by a range of drivers, set against long-term societal traditions, ideologies and religion. The interview material from the governance case studies will be further used to develop narratives of good governance and to raise awareness of the importance of evidence to guide decision-making on urbanization.